The disappearance of the Santa Claus Rally is not necessarily bad news


Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange on the last trading day of the year, December 31, 2024, in New York.

Spencer Platt | Getty Images

This report is from today's CNBC Daily Open, our international markets newsletter. CNBC Daily Open brings investors the latest news wherever they are. Like what you see? You can subscribe Here.

What you need to know today

A rocky trading week
US stocks
increased on Friday but it still ended the week in the red. The S&P 500 energy sector bucked this trend and rose over 3% during the week. Europe Stoxx 600 index decreased by 0.49%. The worst performers were shares of automotive companies, including: Stellar shares lost about 2% after the company reported a 45.7% cut in 2024 production.

The year of rebuilding Boeing
Boeing it hasn't posted an annual profit since 2018, the first of which was dismal 737 Max disaster in which 346 people died. A year ago, an unused emergency door flew through the air from an almost new Boeing 737 Max 9 operated by Alaska Airlines. New CEO Kelly Ortberg, who started in the top job in August, is tasked with ensuring Boeing increases production and maintains quality. Here how he's doing.

Overseas phone sales in China are declining
According to CNBC calculations based on data from the Chinese Academy of Information and Communications Technology, sales of foreign phone brands in China amounted to 3.04 million units in November. This represents a decline of 47.4% compared to November 2023, suggesting brands such as Apple were is struggling with the problem of the Chinese market.

Microsoft is investing heavily in data centers
Microsoft planning will spend $80 billion in fiscal year 2025 on building data centers that can handle artificial intelligence workloads, the company said on Friday blog post. More than half of expected AI infrastructure spending will occur in the U.S., Microsoft vice president and president Brad Smith wrote. Microsoft's fiscal year 2025 ends in June.

(PRO) Eyes on the December jobs report
Large pieces of economic data this week will see the release of minutes from the U.S. Federal Reserve's December meeting, which will be held on Wednesday, and the December jobs report, which will be released on Friday. While none of them are likely to change the Fed's interest rate decision at its January meeting, they could provide greater clarity on the central bank's moves in 2025.

The most important thing

US markets rose on Friday, but those who placed their hopes on a festive atmosphere were disappointed.

On Friday o S&P500 added 1.26%, i.e Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 0.8%, a Nasdaq Composite advanced 1.77%. Still, the losses from previous trading sessions – before Friday, the S&P and Nasdaq had a five-day losing streak – were too much to bear. For the week, the S&P 500 fell 0.48%, the Dow lost 0.60% and the Nasdaq retreated 0.51%.

This means that the so-called The Santa Claus rally, a phenomenon in which stock prices rise over the last five trading days of the year and the first two thereafter, has not let markets down this year.

The lack of visits from Santa Claus this year may indicate: more difficult times lie ahead for the stock exchanges As stated by the late Yale Hirsch, founder Stock investor's almanac in 1968, he said“If Santa doesn't call, bears might come to Broad and Wall.”

That said, over-reliance on such signals can be the equivalent for adults to believe that it's really Santa Claus putting the PlayStation under the tree because we were nice kids.

And as we grow up and realize that money gives us gifts, it behooves us to remember that the stock market is a bet on how much cash companies can bring in.

On this front UBSDavid Lefkowitz, the bank's chief investment officer for U.S. equities, is optimistic. “We expect the bull market to continue and the S&P 500 to reach 6,600 by year-end, largely driven by strong earnings growth of 9%,” Lefkowitz wrote in a recent note. His price target represents an approximately 11% upside from Friday's close.

It is a gift so precious that no other person, real or imaginary, can give it.

— CNBC's Fred Imbert, Pia Singh, Sean Conlon, Jesse Pound and Sarah Min contributed to this report.



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