It was supposed to be a relaxing day full of tacos, swimming, and watching people surf. But it almost ended in tragedy. Noah Mintz was on a trip to Sayulita, Mexico with his ex-girlfriend and went swimming at the beach. The water seemed fine.
As he made his way back to shore, with the water up to his knees and the ocean behind him, he was knocked down by what was probably a wave.
“I was lying straight in the water, face down, and I couldn't move,” said Mintz, 54, of Toronto. “I thought to myself, 'This is it. This is the moment. I'm about to die.”
A rogue wave is characterized by being 2.2 times larger than the average wave around it. They can be deadly and surprise people. According to them, this can happen when sea waves collide and combine to create a larger wave tests published by National Geographic.
According to the USA National Oceanic Servicesolitary waves can also form during a storm, when regular waves move in a direction opposite to the typical direction of the current and combine with others to form one large and long-lasting wave.
While the number of false waves is difficult to quantify – no organization tracks them or the injuries that result from them – Mintz is not the only company that has experienced their power. One of the largest rogue waves ever recorded occurred just off the coast of British Columbia
Johannes Gemmrich, who studies these waves, says there needs to be more awareness of what they can do.
Most people imagine a dangerous wave as something that might hit a cruise ship or cargo ship in the middle of the ocean. But it's more than that, he says.
“I think most people are unaware of wild waves, especially since they can also occur in coastal areas where most people have contact with the ocean,” said Gemmrich, an oceanographer at the University of Victoria.
The power of the wave
As Mintz lay face down in the water, he recalled key moments in his life, wanting to find the perfect one to focus on after death.
Fortunately, he didn't have to. Instead, his ex found him in the water and knocked him over. He was then hoisted onto a surfboard and taken to shore, paralyzed but conscious.
“I know you're not supposed to turn your back to the ocean, but I didn't really think about it,” Mintz said.
His neck was broken in two places and he suffered several scratches and cuts. After surgery and several months of rehabilitation, he made a full recovery, apart from minor nerve damage on his left side.
From his experience, he was able to return relatively unscathed. But this is not always the case.
Last week, a powerful wave hit Ventura Beach in California, sending eight people to the hospital. But was it really a wave of madmen? About this producer Lauren Bird breaks down the science of wild waves and why they're so unpredictable.
Mary MacNutt, Tassie Notar and another friend were on vacation in Chacala, Mexico, in December 2023. They had just arrived, and MacNutt and Notar, who were 66 and 70 at the time, wanted to go swimming.
There were some waves so the couple decided to head down the beach to find a quieter spot. But as Notar and MacNutt, both from Toronto, were enjoying the sun and ocean, a large wave began to approach them.
“This wave was an aberration. This wave was a monster wave,” said Notar, who estimated it was about four meters high. “It was so high. We both turned around and immediately started swimming to shore.”
They didn't know what to do. The wave was coming in fast and they weren't close enough to shore to get back.
After the wave hit, Notar couldn't find her friend. She ran to the beach, screaming for help, but no one moved. She then turned around and saw someone on the beach performing CPR on MacNutt.
“We didn't know at the time, but she was already a quadriplegic,” Notar said.
A few weeks later, she was flown to Toronto. She needed support to breathe and were told it was unlikely her condition would improve. She asked to be disconnected from life support and died on January 7, 2024.
“She comforted me the whole time. She said: «I had a really good life. Don't worry, I had a really good life.”
What can be done?
Notar wonders what else they could have done when they saw the wave and whether it could have been avoided.
Oceanographer Gemmrich says that if it is far away, you can try to swim to shore. But even this is difficult because he moves much faster than any swimmer.
“The best way is to immerse yourself in it. So wait until he gets close to it, or back away slowly, but when he gets close, dive into him because the strength there decreases with depth.”
Instead of trying to avoid it, Gemmrich says the solution is early detection.
Early warning system
Research on illicit waves began in the 1990s, when one such wave was measured using an oil rig equipped with scientific equipment. Previously, they were considered unbelievable stories told by sailors.
“Even scientists thought it was impossible for the wave to be twice as high as the background wave,” Gemmrich said.
Research on illegal waves began in the early 21st century. In 2020, what some consider to be the most extreme rogue wave ever recorded is 17.6 meters high off the coast of Ucluelet, British Columbia, well above the average surrounding waves of 6 meters.
Gemmrich studied this particular wave. He says a wild wave happens once every few days, but if it's small or if there are no people or boats nearby, no one notices it.
And while the risk of it occurring at a height and in a location that could pose a threat to people is low, Gemmrich says it's important for people to be prepared.
That's why he's working on an early warning system. He can't predict exactly where or when a dangerous wave will form, but he can predict when conditions will allow it.
It includes predicted wind patterns for the next few days, as well as ocean wave physics. It can then predict the formation and evolution of the wave field. He wants this to be reflected in regular forecasts.
“This model currently serves as a research model and will be submitted to Environment and Climate Change (Canada) in the near future for inclusion in the public forecast domain,” Gemmrich said.
Notar wishes there had been better signage when she and MacNutt went swimming. He continues to push for better wild surf signs to be posted near the resort where they are staying.
“I think if people don't know what it is, it seems like a scary wave. This is different than a red flag on the beach,” Notar said.
Mintz learned from this experience. He is not afraid of the ocean and still likes to go swimming. But he's a little more careful on the beach.
“It's like dealing with a wild animal – it's completely unpredictable. And you never turn your back on the ocean until you get out of it.”