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America did not elect Elon Musk. However he serves as the de facto president of Donald Trump. Musk's remit of choice includes a shot at regime change in the Democratic coalition. He also said that only the Alternative for Germany (AfD) can save Germany in next month's elections. He is calling for the end of Sir Keir Starmer's Labor government in the UK. And he asked his 211mn X followers that “America must free the British people from their tyrannical government”. The consensus seems to be yes.
It would be an understatement to say that there is no precedent such a relationship between the president of the United States and the richest man in the world. History provides no guidance for this kind of duet, let alone half the money openly shooting to overthrow united governments. America's billionaires – the Rockefellers, the Vanderbilts and the Carnegies – did not work on par with the presidents of their day. And their legendary wealth was no match for Musk's. JP Morgan was worth $49bn in today's dollars. Henry Ford, who also had a soft spot for European fascism, was close to $200 billion. Musk's fortune has more than doubled. Ford was not admired by Franklin Roosevelt, who lived during his time in the White House.
In contrast, the past is full of instances of American intervention in foreign politics. Except, however, for the CIA's postwar bag of tactics to keep communists in control of continental Europe, Washington's meddling has not included allies. The question facing governments in Berlin, London and perhaps Paris soon is how to respond to this novel threat. Is Musk talking about Trump? In that case, the west is as good as dead. Do you boil water? That would give western capitals an opportunity to exploit the differences between Trump and Musk. The answer is probably a combination of the two.
What matters most is what Musk says. As he bomb Germany and the UK with harassmentMusk's silence on Russia and China speaks volumes. Musk never spoke out for political prisoners or against oppression in any autocracy. Yet he kills Tommy Robinson, a British right-wing gangster serving a fifth sentence, as a prisoner of conscience. It's safe to say that Musk is not swayed by the tender love for English child victims of male gangs mostly of British-Pakistani origin. Child training scandals in the UK date back to more than two decades of almost every Conservative government in office. Mask had nothing to say then.
Since Labor came to power, the welfare of England's children has been his concern. He labeled Jess Phillips, a minister in Starmer's government, a “rape advocate”. He also claimed that a quarter of a million British children were being systematically abused. You'd need an AI-scale polygraph to catch all of Musk's disinformation. At one rate every few minutes, the speed of his posts is exceeded only by their shock value. Musk has expressed no concern about it an estimated 20,000 Ukrainian children they were kidnapped from their homes and taken by force to Russian families.
If this crisis was Musk's alone, Britain, Germany and others can handle it. The British public's dislike of Musk limits his influence. Fewer than one in five British respondents view him favorably, according to a recent YouGov poll. Musk is also upstaged by his ignorance. By calling for Nigel Farage to be removed as leader of the rightwing Reform UK party, he missed the fact that Reform is Farage's vehicle. Musk's call for King Charles to dissolve parliament has fueled questions about his ignorance. Elected governments, not monarchs, decide when to call UK general elections. Musk's influence in Germany – and knowledge about it – can be low.
Musk's silence on China is easy to understand. His Tesla company has big jobs that he doesn't want to risk. Trump's default approach to the world is transactional; his China policy remains. In contrast, Musk magnifies Trump's admiration for Russia's Vladimir Putin and disdain for Europe. It would be naive to think that Musk is just walking away. And this is not just about money. The Trump-Musk antagonism towards European liberal democracy is real. He shares Trump's impatience to end the war in Ukraine on terms that would end up being favorable to Russia. The AfD has pledged to end German aid to Ukraine. Starmer increased British aid.
The eastern side of the Atlantic union faces an uncharted voyage. The European trend has always been to hope for the best. This time it has to plan for bad things.