What does the expansion of military conflict in Iran for oil prices mean? That's what experts say.


A American military strikes in Iran The issues of impact on the oil and gas industry, including whether the expansion conflict can lead to energy prices for Americans.

Prices The Strait of the HillThe main commercial waterway to which the country is partly controlled, and it is strategically vital for the flow of raw in the world markets.

However, the geopolitical crisis causes problems that the worsening of hostilities can squeeze global oil, which will probably raise gas and other energy costs, as well as for other raw products. Iran said on Monday what is it launched the attack At the US Air Force Base in Qatar, and witnesses told several news agencies what they saw rockets across the country.

Iran, a major raw producer, controls the north side of the Hormuz Strait, used by ships that transport approximately 20% of the world's daily oil supplies.

“In practice, the Iranian efforts to” close “the Strait can cover a number of actions, including the attack and delay of ships, using the waterway, preventing the shipping through the strait and, into the most extreme, laying mines in the sea,” said David Oxley, the main climate and economics in the capital.

But, he added, “(s), until the conflict becomes a long war, without” off “, and the violations in the strait remain limited actions of the lower level, which still suspect that any initial spikes at the world's energy prices will move to long.”

Here's what to know about the Iranian conflict A potential impact on oil and gas prices.

What is the impact on oil prices?

After growing at the beginning of trading on Monday, Brent Crude prices, the international standard, decreased by 0.1% to 76.98 dollars by noon. Western Texas intermediate (WTI) raw, American landmark, decreased by 3.8% to $ 71.06.

However, oil prices remain above the level before the hostilities between Israel and Iran began more than a week ago when a barrel of WTI raw material was close to $ 68.

Although the Wall -Strit experts predict that Iran is unlikely to close Hormuz Strait, they note that constant tensions in the region may violate the energy market and send growth prices.

“Perhaps the most risk for oil supply to the region will be Israeli air strikes for Iran's production and export institutions, a/or attacks by Iranian oil and export proxy,” Eurosia Group said on June 23.

Israel has still avoided the export of Iran's oil. But if it were to do so, such strikes could break the flow of several million barrels a day, sending raw prices above $ 80 a barrel, according to a political consultant.

What would it be if the choromus were closed?

Since the shedding of the hormone at the narrowest moment is only 21 miles, it is vulnerable to breakdowns. The channel connects the Persian Gulf with the Gulf and the Arabian Sea.

Although energy experts believe that the closure of the Strait is unlikely, noting that the unfavorable economic and geopolitical impact on Iran, they emphasize that the violation of oil flow through the passage to send energy prices.

According to the Energy Information Administration (EIA), the Energy Information Administration (EIA), oil passages through the channel strongly affects the markets in China, India, Japan and South Korea (EIA).

Map of the Persian Gulf and Strait Mountainuz

The Map of the Persian Gulf and the Hormus Strait show the sea tanker in September 2024.

Nalini Leptit -cherla, OMAR KAMAL/AFP via Getty Images)


The United States imports only about 7% of its oil through the Hormone Strait. But, according to experts, any intervention in supplies passing through the Square can affect the world oil market.

“(W) Hile Iran has not yet focused on the route, even limited breakdowns will greatly affect the global proposal,” said Oxford Economics analysts at the client's note on June 20. “In the worst case, prices can lead to $ 130 a barrel and shave 0.8 percentage from global GDP.”

Last time Brent Crude headed $ 130, it was in 2008. The result of a thorns of demand for energy and uncertainty in world energy supplies, In the hall to eia. At that time, gasoline prices reached a maximum of approximately $ 4.11 per gallon, or about $ 6.26 per gallon after adjusting for inflation.

What is the gas price forecast in the US?

US drivers are likely to see higher gas prices on the pump next week, and prices jump between 10 cents and 15 cents per gallon, said Gasbuddy analyst Patrick Dhaan.

“Most/all the recent and expected growth is related to the tension/situation in the Middle East,” he said in an email CBS Moneywatch.

Even the increase, US drivers are still likely to pay less on the pump than a year ago. The average gas price in the United States is now $ 3.22 per gallon, which decreases from $ 3.45 per gallon a year earlier, AAA reports.



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