A Temperature cessation Announced by President Donald Trump this evening – but it has not yet been confirmed by Israel or Iran – have probably changed the world markets that were watching oil shocks and increasing inflation a few hours ago.
The Iranian parliament voted on Sunday to close the Hormuz Strait, an important global oil trading road. Lots of surprise, and cease fighting, puts stability on the importance of the world of narrow problem between Iran and the Arabian peninsula, which carries 20% of the world's oil production.
The move, which was first reported by Iranian government journalists, comes after the United States hit the Iranian nuclear territories on Sunday and before Iran retaliated by attacking the American military base in Qatar on Monday. While oil markets dropped 4%, or $ 3 per barrel on Monday, analysts expected a significant increase in prices if the country's national security council would approve the closure of the Strait.
Iran's thoughtful plans to shut down the problem, while the possibility of occurring even before the ceasefire announcement, could have a significant impact on European and UK markets – and even a minor interruption on the water road can shock the American economy already preparing for increased influence. The increase in oil prices due to the retaliation of Iran in the region may have an impact on how the Federal Conservation Federation reduces the remaining year, analysts say.
“(Closing Strait of Hormuz) can turn into a shock such as the one we saw in 2022 after the Russian invasion of Ukraine,” Susana Cruz, Panmure Research analyst Liberum, a British Investment Bank company, told Luck.
If Iran closes the water route, Cruz expects a shock of oil prices to increase inflation in 1%. Another, “most likely,” a situation where the Strait does not close but the price of oil rises by 20% in the third quarter would increase inflation to increase half a percent in America, 0.4% in Eurozone, and 0.3% in the UK, Cruz and its research team. This could force Fed to hold interest rates, a strategy they have employed since December despite Trump's pressure reduction.
Iran may not be able to support its threat, even if they move, experts say.
“(Iran is) to make a noise about closing the Hormuz Strait,” Paul Tice, senior at the national energy analysis center, told Luck. “It is unclear if they have the ability to do so.”
Compatible with Tice's argument, the price of unbridled Brent Oil surrounded to the ground From $ 78.97 in Open, around about $ 70 by Monday afternoon, as traders see the tanker flow going on at the Hormuz Strait. Trump urged the oil industry to set the low price today in social reality PostWarning readers: “I'm watching! You're playing in the hands of the enemy. Don't do it!”
But even a 20% increase in oil prices can affect the view from the central banks that focus on “the effect of inflation already forms from tariffs,” Cruz warned.
“If you have an additional oil shock from the oil price, then we will not see the year -long cut rates,” Cruz said. “.
A 20% increase in oil prices would increase in the third quarter of this year and disappeared in the third quarter of 2026, Cruz said. The American stock market would fall 5% to 10% in this situation, according to Panmure Liberum estimates.
Despite America facing the “sticky combination, inflation and (a) slow growth economy” Ethan Harris, the former chief economist there Bank of AmericaHe was told Luck“I am more concerned, to tell the truth, about a business war than I am over the shock of oil prices.”
Harris holds a popular view among economists That American consumers will begin to see the tariff price rising over the heating season, and is expected to start seeing CPI reports that are contaminated in the coming months.
In its Monday JournalHarris wrote that people in U, s. The economy is “ready” to see the shock of oil prices as a transition. Added that America relies heavily on oil Imports more than it was during the oil price shock caused by improvements such as the American-Iraq war in 1990 and does not depend on oil in general since the country has become a “service direction.”
“As a result, most powerful work shows $ 10/BBL (per barrel) increase in the price of low -income 0.1% or less,” Harris wrote.
Goldman Sachs analysts estimate the “geographical risk” of $ 12/BBL, defining value as an increase in oil prices as it was closed at $ 66.9/BBL on June 10. On June 11, Trump said he had no confidence in reaching the nuclear program with Iran.
In a report published on Sunday, Goldman analysts said the situation in which about 20 million barrels of oil that passes through the Hormuz Strait drop 50% in one month and then remaining down 10% for another 11 months could result in the price of Brent to $ 110/BBL. Risk payment for the barrel would increase to more than $ 25.
Although Harris says there is no “magic number” to predict the greatest oil shock, the price per barrel will have to reach “more than $ 100” threatening the economic downturn.
The oil export of the Islamic Republic has collapsed from about 2.5 million barrels per day to only 150,000 barrels following the outbreak of war with Israel, Israel does not reported.
Even if the strait is closed in the future, Macquarie's strategies see the work.
“Any problem of stress can not be at all difficult, because other oils loaded at Gulf stations can be transported to the ground,” scholars wrote in a letter. “But the risk involved is the Iranian attack on oil production websites.”
Twenty percent of the world's oil production flows through Hormuz's Strait, and experts say closing the water road would affect Iran's economy significantly, as oil is one of the largest shipping in the country.
“They would be hurting,” NCEA's Tice said.