“Politics does not wave his tail,” he shakes the whole dog. “
These strong words from one estate manager to CNBC last week capture the feverish first half of the trade. They also adopted a scene for the uncertain second half, in which “geoeconomy” looks like the dominant market force.
This week, expect that he will pay attention to monetary policy, because central bankers from around the world – who have lowered their heads among political tensions – are preparing for a speech on the ECB forum in Sintra, Portugal.
Report from the break
A lot has happened over the past six months, with commercial tensions and followers of sending stock markets around the world.
VIX variability indicator – also known as a measure of fear on Wall Street – enriched in April as tariff threats, followed by a tariff pause, caused huge swings among the main indicators. Meanwhile, the moments of “Black Swan” in the Middle East also kept investors on the edge.
DAX vs. S&P 500
Among the whole uncertainty, some stock market markets showed extraordinary immunity: German Dax remains exceeding the result in Europe, so far by over 18% this year, and then in London FTSE 100 by about 9%, while the French CAC 40 is delayed with about 5% of profits.
But what does all this mean for trade in the second half of the year? Goldman Sachs warns that “increased uncertainty of politics in combination with the deteriorating background macro probably supports higher capital variability in the coming months.”
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Central banks occupy a central place in Sintra
When Goldman's warning revolves loudly in the ears of investors, the stage is prepared for central banks to return to light.
This week, in the city of Sintra in Portugal, he hosts the annual EBC forum, where their international counterparts join European central bankers to exchange opinions on current politics.
The sun can shine in Portugal – but President Donald Trump Last comments He will undoubtedly cast a shadow on the meeting, because he still exerts unprecedented pressure on the chairman of the Federal Reserve Jerome Powell.
Last week, Trump referred to Powell, causing a conversation about the so -called “Fed Fed chair“Who could keep an eye on your mind until next year as a chair.
Powell also put pressure on his monetary policy peers, calling for central bankers to maintain constant until they see the impact of commercial tariffs: “We are able to wait and learn more about the probable course of the economy before considering any adaptations to our attitude of politics.”
Europe will have to decide how much the US allows to dictate its policy, and President ECB Christine Lagarde opens the proceedings in Sintra on Monday evening.
Expect a strong tone; Her recently OP-ED in the Financial Times She saw how she calls the euro to take advantage of the current environment and “gain global significance.”
The first year of the Labor Party
The next Friday is the first anniversary of the Labor Party to take over power in Great Britain, after 14 years of conservative governments. The victory of the landslide He saw a joyful job will return to Downing Street with the promise of change and growth. But the wedding period was short -lived.
Fast forward 12 months, and Prime Minister Keir Starmer looks like to reach your first year of office with Rapid appointment grades What put him below the competing party leaders, including Nigel Farage Reform, the liberal democrat Sir Ed Davey and the conservative leader Kemi Badenoch.
Starmer faced high external pressure, from Public Splus with Elon Musk up to a lot of challenges regarding foreign policy in Ukraine and the Middle East. Even three commercial agreements – with Europe, India and the first contract in the USA – did little to improve its popularity. But economic challenges at home cause the most dissatisfaction Pressure even from your own party To review some reforms.
