America's efforts to reduce climate change pollution stalled in 2024, with greenhouse gas emissions falling just 0.2 percent from the previous year. according to estimates It was published on Thursday by Rhodium Group, a research firm.
Despite continued rapid growth in solar and wind power, emissions remained relatively stable last year as demand for electricity nationwide increased, leading to an increase in the amount of natural gas burned by power plants.
The lack of reduction in emissions means that the United States is further away from meeting President Biden's goal of cutting greenhouse gases by 50 percent below 2005 levels by 2030. keeping global warming relatively low.
Since 2005, United States emissions have fallen by about 20 percent, a significant reduction at a time when the economy is also expanding. But to meet its climate goals, U.S. emissions must fall each year about 10 times faster than they have fallen over the past decade. That seems increasingly unlikely, experts say, especially after President-elect Donald Trump promised to demolish Mr. Biden's climate policy encourages the burning of fossil fuels that generate greenhouse gases.
“On the one hand, it's remarkable that we've now seen two years in a row where the U.S. economy has grown but emissions have fallen,” said Ben King, associate director of the Rhodium Group. “But it's not enough to meet our climate goals.”
The biggest reason for the decline in U.S. emissions in recent years is that electric utilities have retired older, dirtier coal-fired power plants. and replaces them with cheaper and less polluting natural gas, wind and solar power. This trend has largely continued over the past year with a few unexpected ups and downs.
The nation's electricity demand, which had remained more or less flat for two decades, suddenly increased by about 3 percent in 2024, largely because sweltering summer temperatures caused many Americans to turn on their air conditioners. A smaller factor was that tech companies were building more energy-hungry data centers in states like Virginia and Texas.
While power companies installed large numbers of wind turbines, solar panels and batteries last year to meet rising demand, natural gas use also hit a record high, while coal use fell slightly. The net result, according to the Rhodium Group, was an increase of about 0.2 percent in emissions from the energy sector.
At the same time, transport, the country's largest source of greenhouse gases, recorded a 0.8 percent increase in emissions last year. As Americans continue to drive and fly more after the pandemic, gasoline and jet fuel consumption has increased. About 10 percent of new car sales in 2024 were low-polluting electric vehicleshowever, these models still represent a small fraction of the total cars on the road and have yet to make a big dent in traffic emissions.
On the other hand, emissions from the US industrial sector, including steel, cement and chemicals, fell by 1.8 percent in 2024. Some of that could be the result of lost production, as two hurricanes and a strike at the nation's ports caused some work to stop. Factory activity in the fall, Mr. King said.
“It's a reminder that there's always some bulge in emissions,” Mr. King said. “It's not just about how many electric cars we have on the road or how much solar power we install. “A large part of our economy is still based on fossil fuels.”
One of the most surprising findings from this year's data was that emissions from oil and gas operations will decrease by about 3.7 percent in 2024. Although the United States produced record amounts of oil and near-record natural gas last year, many companies appear to have avoided leaking methane, a key component of natural gas that leaks into the atmosphere and can contribute significantly to global warming.
Over the past few years, the Biden administration and several states have passed new regulations requiring oil and gas producers to detect and fix methane leaks. Many companies also have financial incentives to capture methane to sell instead of releasing it into the air.
According to the Rhodium Group, between 2014 and 2024, US companies have reduced the amount of methane they escape by 40 percent per cubic foot of gas they produce.
A few experts they guessed If many clean energy policies continue, especially the 2022 Inflation Relief Act, which provides hundreds of billions of dollars for low-carbon energy technologies such as electric vehicles and wind, greenhouse gas emissions in the United States could begin to decline sharply in the coming years. turbines, solar panels, nuclear reactors, green hydrogen and batteries.
While Mr. Trump has promised to eliminate many of Mr. Biden's subsidies and tax credits for electric cars and low-carbon energy, it remains to be seen Whether or not Congress agrees.
The law has yet to have a major impact on the nation's emissions, Mr. King said, because it takes time for new factories to open and power plants to be built. But, he said, the data shows that low-carbon energy and transportation currently account for a full 5 percent of total U.S. private investment.
“It's a leading indicator that things are changing fast,” he said.