A meeting in Dubai between Indian Foreign Secretary Vikram Misri and Amir Khan Muttaqi, who is the foreign minister of the Taliban, on Wednesday this week confirmed that India wants to raise the influence and leadership of Afghanistan, experts say.
India has been gradually developing ties with the Taliban over the past year, but the latest meeting marks the first such move.
India has invested more than $3bn in aid and reconstruction projects in Afghanistan over the past 20 years and a statement from the Indian Ministry of External Affairs outlined what we are talking about all the time: regional developments, trade and humanitarian cooperation and an agreement to resume development work. and to support health workers and refugees in Afghanistan.
However, it was what was left out of those words – but what was evident from the timing and agenda of this meeting – that signaled a change in the real political situation in the region.
First, the meeting comes days after India issued a reprimand to Pakistan air attack in Afghanistan where it is said to have killed at least 46 people last month.
It also comes after the appointment of the Taliban as the Afghan embassy in Mumbai, in November last year.
Although the Indian government has not announced the appointment, the timing coincided with the visit of the joint secretary of the Ministry of External Affairs to Kabul in the same month.
The deployment of the Taliban in Mumbai by Ikramuddin Kamil, a former Afghan student in India turned Taliban ambassador, puts India on a growing list of countries, including Russia, China, Turkey, Iran and Uzbekistan, that have allowed the Taliban to operate in India. . Ambassadors of Afghanistan. Earlier, in 2022, India also sent a small technical team to reopen its embassy in Kabul.
Technological change?
These recent developments show the growing relationship between New Delhi and Kabul, observers say.
But the move may not be the change it seems, said Kabir Taneja, deputy director and fellow at the Observer Research Foundation, an Indian think tank. “It is a natural continuation of what has been India's cautious and long-term commitment to the Taliban in Kabul since 2021,” he said. “Like other neighbors, India and the Taliban are real, and ignoring Afghanistan and the Afghan people is not an option.”
Raghav Sharma, an associate professor at the Jindal School of International Affairs in New Delhi, agreed. “I think this is a continuation of the old principles that we deal with the Taliban, but we don't want to admit the depth of what we are doing,” he said, noting that principles rarely emerge from such discussions.
“When it comes to negotiations with the Taliban, we are still on the fringes,” he added, referring to a study by the Washington Institute, a US think tank that analyzed international cooperation with the Taliban. The survey found that Qatar, China and Turkey lead the way in developing ties with the Taliban, while Pakistan ranks fifth in terms of influence.
“India is not even on the list,” Sharma said.
“For a very long time, India has been saying that Afghanistan is a very important country, and we have a long-standing relationship, but you have to talk,” Sharma added. “After the fall of the Republic, we put Afghanistan in cold storage, only suspending it when necessary, temporarily.”
India's reluctance continues
One move that could come out of all this, Taneja said, is the prospect of visas for Afghans. “The main takeaway from Egypt-Muttaqi is that India may soon re-introduce visas for Afghans, especially for business, health tourism and education,” he said.
India was criticized for suspending Afghan visas, including medical and student visas, after the Taliban takeover in 2021. It has issued fewer visas to Afghans since then. “It is time for New Delhi to come forward and do this,” Taneja said. “It will bring relief to many Afghan citizens who used India as their choice for higher education, healthcare, etc.”
Sharma said he is not hopeful that more visas will be issued, due to security concerns. “At the end of the day, the Taliban is an ideological group, and their resurgence in power has led to a major escalation that will be difficult,” he said.
India needs to remain involved in the region, too. “They believe that by keeping the path open to the Taliban, they will be able to engage in other important matters for India. Will the Taliban be able to answer the other question because what do we have against the Taliban?” he added.
The meeting needed the Taliban more than India, Sharma said. With the group engaged in military conflict with Pakistan, a former ally of the Taliban, they are eager to show that they have several options available.
“They (Taliban) want to show (independence) in Pakistan in particular. It also helps them to play against the big lie that they have no independence, no organization and that they are the people of Pakistan's party,” he said, referring to the Taliban's display at international games. the world that experts say was affected by. the Pakistani army.
Precautionary steps or lack of direction?
There are other reasons why India may refuse to move forward with the Taliban. Greater cooperation could put “the world's largest democracy” in moral trouble, analysts say.
“India has been trying for a long time to sell and position itself as the world's largest democracy, but it has failed to even criticize the ban on girls' education in Afghanistan. There has been absolute silence on the matter. So what signal are we sending to people at home? Sharma asked.
India has remained influential in Afghanistan and was one of the first countries to send a diplomatic mission after the fall of the Taliban in 2001. However, despite its strong interest in the region, India has not had a coherent policy in the country.
“Any improvement that India wants to make, it has been doing so in cooperation with other powers that we have gained interest in. These were Iran and Russia in the past, and then the Americans,” said Sharma. Following the fall of the US-backed republican government, India found itself in a new situation.
While many countries around the world moved quickly to adapt to the new reality, India put Afghanistan in a “cold zone”, Sharma reiterated. Even the US, he said, “has been working with the Taliban on counter-terrorism to fight ISKP”. The ISKP (Islamic State of Khorasan Province) is a regional branch of ISIL (ISIS) and is known to operate inside Afghanistan.
At the same time, “countries like Iran that supported and supported the Taliban, even Pakistan, have kept the channels of communication open to the opposition,” added Sharma. “Iran has dissidents like Ismael Khan. The Tajik government that criticized the Taliban in the beginning is not the same but continues to host dissidents.”
'Putting all our eggs in the Taliban basket'
Now, stakeholders in the region are assessing what the incoming Trump administration in the United States could mean for the Taliban.
“Afghanistan has moved away from the political agenda of Washington, DC,” Taneja said. Although the country will remain important for security, it will “not take over recent events such as Gaza, Iran, and Ukraine”.
What happens next is hard to say, he added. “Trump's methods are akin to daily weather forecasting. However, any Taliban opponents trying to gain power may find an easier ear under Trump than they did under Biden.”
Ultimately, despite being the strongest power in the region, India has failed to engage with various players in Afghanistan, alienating its interests over time. “At first, we made the mistake of putting all our eggs in the (Hamid) Karzai (former president of Afghanistan) basket and then the (Ashraf) Ghani basket. We did it again in Bangladesh and gave all our support to Sheikh Hasina.”
Fixing this may take time as India may also misunderstand the Afghan people, Taneja said.
“It's not only about developing political relations, but also understanding how other institutions work. I don't think India has the knowledge that is surprising because we are close to them in terms of culture (and) culture. However, we have invested very little in understanding people,” he said.
“I believe we are repeating the same mistake, putting all our eggs in the Taliban's basket,” Taneja said, warning that Afghanistan's political system has been in disarray.
“The bottom line changes very quickly,” he added.