Tehran, Iran – Donald Trump's second term as president of the United States promises Iran a rocky road that could lead to mixed results in terms of its relations with the West, experts say.
US leaders, along with Israelis, have been openly discussing military strikes on Iran's nuclear weapons and vital energy and oil and petrochemical facilities.
Iran's leaders, including Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, remain defiant, and his Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) has carried out major military exercises, mostly focused on protecting sensitive areas.
Change, but where to go?
For more than two decades, Iran's relationship with the West has been defined by what is happening in the country's nuclear program and its efforts not to acquire the bomb. Tehran has maintained that it does not want a weapon of mass destruction.
Recently, political and military officials in Iran have been discussing the possibility of changing Tehran's official policy not pursuing a nuclear weapon amid security threats.
It seems that there are two schools of thought in Tehran: one seems open to cooperation with the US, including the nuclear program, and the other talks about the search for a weapon, especially because of the destruction of Israel's deterrence and obstacles to its territories. allies, Naysan Rafati, senior Iran analyst at the Washington-based Crisis Group, said.
“But if the former camp wins, it will still require a willingness on the part of Washington to engage Tehran – and given the weakness of the Islamic Republic, there will be a tendency to force the government to push rather than acquiesce.”
Iran has lost one of its future security forces with the fall of Bashar al-Assad in Syria as well boxing fought the “axis of resistance” across the country.
The country is also dealing with a series of sanctions that are crippling its already battered economy, deflation and inflation. along with the power problem.
Amidst the economic crisis, the government of Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian, which is expected sending his ambassadors to Europe at the end of this month in discussions with E3 – France, Germany and the United Kingdom – it seems as if it wants to continue to engage in western activities.
The entire plan being discussed seems to be similar to the JCPOA (Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action), Iran's nuclear agreement with international authorities in 2015 – removing Iran's economic problems in exchange for measures to reduce its nuclear program.
But no new plan has been put in place, and any talks so far seem to have been negotiations aimed at clarifying ideas.
Longing for a new relationship
The situation is different this time, compared to the time when Iran and the West negotiated for many years leading to a nuclear deal.
In 2018, Trump abandoned the JCPOA and imposed tough sanctions against Iran. He also ordered the assassination of Qassem Soleimani, Iran's supreme commander and chief engineer of his region, five years ago.
“Unlike the first administration of Mr. Trump, the people of Europe will be more supportive of what the US will decide because the Europeans have agreed in some ways to exert more pressure in recent years because of the problems they have with Tehran,” Ellie. Geranmayeh, deputy director of the Middle East and North Africa program at the European Council on Foreign Relations said.
This year should see major events that will clearly explain the progress of Iran's nuclear program, Abas Aslani, senior researcher at the Center for Middle East Strategic Studies, told Al Jazeera.
Most of the provisions of the JCPOA have expiredAslani said, so there is an increased willingness to negotiate a new understanding – especially since the main sunset clause of the JCPOA, which allows the West to reinstate any United Nations sanctions that were removed from Iran (short), will expire in October 2025.
Geranmayeh said E3 is keeping the brief as the last tool they have to support Iran and he knows that if used, it could lead to “unpredictable events”.
As such, Europe will be using the time remaining until October to defend against escalation and press for negotiations.
However, there is still a big question about how the Europeans will respond if Trump wants Iran to lift sanctions on Iran and E3 in exchange for tradeoffs in terms of European security, the expert said.
“We will go to a very serious conflict or some agreement, even a limited one, on the nuclear program, depending on whether Iran and the US can understand it,” Aslani said.
There is also the possibility of Tehran and Washington sitting down for direct talks, something Iran has refused to do because of the United States' withdrawal from the JCPOA.
“If the Trump administration tries to push hard for approval, it will be very difficult to reach an agreement even if there is a great deal of understanding,” he said.
Iran's nuclear program
The latest news shows that Iran has never started building a bomb.
However, a year after Trump withdrew from the JCPOA, it began expanding the number and number of centrifuges, repeating the process later. Israel is attacking its nuclear weapons and criticize countries.
In recent months, it has installed thousands of new centrifuges based on the delivery of another decision criticized by the Europeans at the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA).
Now enriching uranium to 60 percent, a technical fraction short of the more than 90 percent required for a bomb, the IAEA says Tehran has enough material to detonate multiple bombs.
The proliferation of nuclear weapons gives Iran an opportunity to negotiate with Trump, but it also comes with many risks, said the Crisis Group's Rafati.
“Tehran is getting closer to the weapons and the time to destroy them, which blurs the line between what's happening and what scares the US and/or Israel into thinking about war,” he told Al Jazeera.
Nuclear explosion time is the time needed to build enough material to make a bomb. If it decides to go ahead with the bomb, Iran must develop and assemble a weapon, including a long-range missile capable of carrying nuclear warheads, and test it successfully.
We are in a temporary situation as the “big elephant in the room” of Trump taking power is a few days away and there is no clear idea how his administration plans to shape its relationship with Iran, according to senior analyst Geranmayeh.
“I think that in the first few weeks of 2025, Iran will not significantly increase its nuclear activities unless President Trump carries out a very strong pressure campaign,” Geranmayeh told Al Jazeera.
He also said that Iran's nuclear activities could cool down a bit if the US prioritizes diplomatic talks aimed at reducing them, suggesting that two different things could happen depending on where Mr Trump positions himself.