Moderna Inc. headquarters in Cambridge, Massachusetts, USA, Tuesday, March 26, 2024
Adam Glanzman | Bloomberg | Getty Images
Modern on Monday lowered its 2025 sales forecast by about $1 billion due to several potential headwinds later this year as it continues to cut costs and expand its portfolio.
Moderna currently expects 2025 revenue to be between $1.5 billion and $2.5 billion, most of which will be realized in the second half of the year. Most of these sales will come from Moderna's Covid vaccine and the newly introduced vaccine respiratory syncytial virus– according to the announcement.
The clues are older than the previous ones forecast issued in September in the range of $2.5 billion to $3.5 billion. The company then stated that it expected this reach the break-even point based on the cash operating method in 2028 – postponed from 2026 – with revenues of $6 billion.
Moderna shares fell 18% in pre-market trading on Monday. Stocks of other vaccines also fell: Novavax fell 6% before the market opened, BioNTech fell 3% and Pfizer fell slightly.
“As we enter 2025, we are planning for some unknowns,” Moderna Chief Financial Officer Jamey Mock told CNBC. “For this period, we plan for these to be contrary winds. They may be tailwinds, but we currently see them as headwinds.”
Mock pointed to four factors that may influence the sale, including: increased competition in the Covid market. He said Moderna's share of the U.S. retail market for Covid shots fell to 40% at the end of 2024 from 48% in 2023, and the company is bracing for another decline this year.
He noticed Sanofi will co-commercialize NovavaxCovid vaccines globally under a new deal that could potentially make the vaccine more competitive.
Mock said the second factor is declining vaccination rates, which were down about 7% overall in the U.S. retail market in the fall of 2024 compared to the same period in 2023. The final two factors are the timing of production contracts with several countries and uncertainty about recommendations Centers for Disease Control and Prevention advisors on RSV revaccination.
Mock noted, however, that the company expects to reduce cash burn by $1 billion in 2025 and plans an additional $500 million in cost cuts in 2026.
“We are incurring the appropriate amount of costs to protect our cash,” Mock said. “We are excited to invest and diversify our portfolio.”
The announcement comes as Moderna charts a path forward after a sharp decline in demand for its Covid vaccine, the only product available on the market until the RSV vaccine was launched last year. It also precedes Moderna's presentation during the annual edition JPMorgan Healthcare Conferenceone of the largest gatherings of healthcare executives in the world and a deal hotbed for the industry.
Revenues from Moderna's two shots met its 2024 forecast of $3 billion to $3.1 billion. In November, the company announced an updated Covid shot took advantage from gaining U.S. approval three weeks earlier than the previous version of the shot in 2023.
Still, these sales represent a sharp decline compared to $6.7 billion Moderna's Covid shot booked in 2023 and the $18 billion it generated in 2022 as fewer people rolled up their sleeves to get up-to-date vaccinations.
Moderna plans to expand its portfolio with 10 new product approvals over the next three years, including a combination shot targeting Covid and flu and a “next-generation” Covid shot. On Monday, the company said it could obtain three permits in 2025 alone.
The company is betting on a pipeline built around its messenger RNA platform, which is the technology used in its Covid vaccine and RSV shot.