The US unicorns most likely to go public in 2025 | NVCA/PitchBook

There are several of US Unicorns — those valued at $1 billion or more — are likely to go public in 2025, according to the PitchBook/NVCA campaign monitor for the fourth quarter of 2024.

The folks at PitchBook have a VC exit predictor, a tool that leverages machine learning and PitchBook's database of companies, funding rounds and investors to objectively assess the likelihood of a startup exiting successfully .

On the PitchBook platform, VC-backed companies are scored with a percentage based on the likelihood of being acquired, going public, not exiting due to failure, or becoming self-sustaining. In order to provide a clearer picture of the true value of the VC market exit, the researchers have used a current property extraction approach for M&A transactions not disclosed in our PE and Global M&A reports.

Nizar Tarhuni, EVP of research and market intelligence at PitchBook, said in a statement, “While 2024 saw a steady increase in completed financing and the total number of dollars invested – there is a proliferation of AI-focused early-stage deals at large valuation masking its wider enterprise business still facing correction challenges.”

He said, ultimately, there is a lack of meaningful exit in the VC landscape, driven by a number of issues including buyer-seller valuation imbalances stemming from inflated rounds in previous vintages and regulatory headaches hinder the desire for contracts at the greater part of the market.

“Our vision for 2025 is very positive. A more M&A and business-friendly presence in Washington, along with more time for startups and investors to adjust the prospects for valuations, deal structures and rebalancing growth could attract more capital to come down the line ,” Tarhuni said. “That said, fundraising may still be tepid, especially as other pockets of the market appear to be gaining steam, competing for dollars in the alternative buckets of allocators, ultimately favoring larger enterprise platforms and established managers.”

And Bobby Franklin, CEO at NVCA, said in a statement that after a strong quarter with the highest investment levels since mid-2022, there is a sense of cautious optimism for VCs and entrepreneurs heading into 2025 .

“Changes in leadership at the FTC and DOJ may ease some of the liquidity challenges for portfolio companies, and changes at the SEC may right-size the companies' regulatory burdens,” he said. “With more VCs stepping into government positions and becoming actively involved on Capitol Hill, the venture industry has a unique opportunity to highlight the critical role of venture-backed firms in leading economic growth and maintaining America's competitiveness.”

He said the tax bill currently going through Congress is particularly important, with the potential to spur innovation, reinstate the R&D tax credit, and support the ecosystem more wide

Among US tech unicorns ranked by IPO probability, PitchBook estimates Anduril, an aerospace and defense company started by Oculus founder Palmer Luckey, to have a 97% chance of going public in 2025.

Another with gaming roots is Mythical Games, a Web3 gaming company led by John Linden. The company has a 97% chance of going public in 2025.

Others include Ayar Labs, Carbon, Databricks, EquipmentShare, Form Energy, GrubMarket, Mainspring, Sila and StockX. Among those with a 96% chance of going public are Impossible Foods, Groq and SpaceX.

In 2024, $1 million to $5 million was the largest contract category built by size, with 3,153 startups in that category. That's down from 3,781 in 2023 and 5,310 in the peak year of 2021.