The Biden administration this week introduced new export restrictions designed to control the progress of AI globally and ultimately prevent the most advanced AI from falling into Chinese hands. The rule is just the latest in a series of measures introduced by Donald Trump and Joe Biden to rein in Chinese AI.
With prominent AI figures including OpenAI's Sam Altman and Anthropic's Dario Amodei warning of the need to “beat China” in AI, the Trump administration is likely to escalate things further.
Paul Triolo is a partner at DGA Group, a global consulting firm, a member of the foreign relations council, and senior advisor to the University of Pennsylvania's Penn Project on the Future of U.S.-China Relations. Alvin Graylin is an entrepreneur who previously ran China operations for Taiwanese electronics company HPC. Together they monitor China's AI industry and the impact of US sanctions. In an email exchange, Triolo and Graylin discussed the latest sanctions, Silicon Valley rhetoric, and the dangers of viewing global AI as a zero-sum game.
This interview has been edited for clarity and brevity.
What do you do with the new one? AI Diffusion Rules from the US government this week, aiming to limit China's access to AI?
Paul Triolo: Generally, it's focused on high-performance computing clusters. The rule also places exclusive model weight controls on the most advanced “frontier” models but it is unclear how performance levels will be determined and most AI models have weights open (shared freely) are adapted and improved by users, including major AI companies. in China.
Complex rules and unclear compliance conditions create significant uncertainty in the long-term plans of both US and Western super-sized and mid-sized companies.
For hyperscalers like Google, Microsoft, AWS and Oracle, this rule causes serious problems, including slowed or more complicated international expansion, legal and compliance costs new, impact on global R&D and uncertain enforcement requirements.
How have previous measures, including sanctions introduced by the first Trump administration, affected the AI industry there?
Paul Triolo: US export controls have slowed China down, but to a large extent, sanctions have unified the Chinese government's will and efforts to become more self-reliant. It has invested tens of billions of dollars to help local companies catch up in technological capacity or scale in core areas, leading to significant changes in the semiconductor industry and hardware support capabilities. advanced to develop advanced AI models.
Chinese AI developers have been adept at leveraging traditional AI hardware from Western companies and gradually integrating domestic alternatives into their development process. Chinese companies will continue to innovate in AI hardware and software, if not keep up with the pace of their Western counterparts.
Why do you think so many people in Silicon Valley are now talking about the need to “beat China” in AI?
Paul Triolo: There is a growing connection between conservative venture capitalists, mainly in Silicon Valley, and tech companies whose business models depend on hyping the threat from China . This is a worrying combination that combines the threat from China, private interests, and rolling back regulations on advanced AI. It also portrays the competition between the US and China around AI as zero-sum, which is especially dangerous.