Has Trump promised too much for the US economy?

Donald Trump has promised big changes for the world's largest economy.

“An end to the devastating inflationary crisis”, tariffs and major cuts in taxes, regulation and the size of government are on the agenda.

That combination, he says, will spark an economic boom and revive a fading faith in the American dream.

“We're at the beginning of a great, beautiful golden age of business,” he promised from the podium at Mar-a-Lago earlier this month.

But there are warnings over the president-elect that many of his policies are more likely to hurt the economy than help it.

And as he prepares to set his plans in motion, analysts say he is about to run into political and economic realities that will make it difficult to deliver on all his promises.

“Right now, there is no clear path forward on how to achieve all of these goals because they are inherently contradictory,” said Romina Boccia, director of budget and rights policy at the Cato Institute.

Here's a closer look at its key promises.

What Trump promised:

“Prices will fall,” he said repeatedly.

It was a risky promise – prices rarely fall unless there is an economic crisis.

Inflation, which measures not price levels but the rate at which prices rise, has already declined significantly, while proving difficult to eradicate completely.

What makes it complicated:

Trump tied his claims to promises to expand already record U.S. oil and gas production, lowering energy costs. But the forces that affect inflation and energy prices are mostly outside the president's control.

As far as White House policies matter, analysts have warned that many of Trump's ideas — including tax cuts, tariffs and migrant deportations — risk making the problem worse.

Economist John Cochrane of the right-leaning Hoover Institution said the big question for the economy was how Trump would juggle “tensions” between the more traditionally pro-business parts of his coalition and “nationalists” who are focused on issues such as border control and rivalry with China.

“It's clear that both camps can't get what they want,” he said. “That's going to be the main story and so we don't know what's going to happen.”

What Trump voters want:

Inflation promises were key to Trump's victory, but by many measures, such as growth and job creation, the overall economy was not in the dire condition he described on the campaign trail.

After his victory, he tried to play down expectations, warning that it would be “very difficult” to lower prices.

Amanda Sue Mathis, 34, of Michigan, says she thinks Trump's promises are doable, but it may take time.

“If anyone can make better deals to make things more affordable for Americans, it's Donald Trump,” she said. “He literally wrote the book on the art of making deals.”

What Trump promised:

Trump's most unorthodox economic promise was his promise to impose tariffs — a border tax — of at least 10 percent on all goods coming into the U.S., rising to more than 60 percent on products from China.

Since then, he has stepped up threats against certain countries, including allies such as Canada, Mexico and Denmark.

Some of Trump's advisers have suggested that the tariffs are negotiating tools on other issues, such as border security, and that he will ultimately settle for a more targeted or incremental approach.

What makes it complicated:

The debate has fueled speculation about how aggressive Trump will decide to be given the potential economic risks.

Analysts say the tariffs are likely to lead to higher prices for Americans and pain for companies hit by foreign retaliation.

And unlike Trump's first term, any measures would come at a delicate time, as the long-running US economic expansion appears to be on its last leg.

Even if the steepest tariffs never materialize, the policy debate alone generates uncertainty that could dampen investment and reduce US growth by as much as 0.6% by mid-2025, according to Oxford Economics.

“They have a very limited margin for error,” Michael Chembalest, chairman of market and investment strategy for JP Morgan Asset Management, said in a recent podcast. He warned that the desire for a major overhaul would likely “break something”, but what remains to be seen.

Trade attorney Everett Eisenstat, who was a White House economic adviser during Trump's first term, said he expected a comprehensive tariff but acknowledged the plan would compete with other goals.

“There's always tension. There is never perfection in the world of politics. And obviously one of the reasons I think he was re-elected is the concern about inflation,” he said.

“We're in a different world (than the first term) and we'll have to see how that plays out,” he said.

What Trump voters want:

Lifelong Republican Ben Maurer said he wants Trump to focus on the broader goal of reviving U.S. manufacturing, not tariffs per se.

“I feel like it's more of a negotiating tactic than an actual policy path,” said the 38-year-old, who lives in Pennsylvania.

“I'm not saying he's not going to put tariffs on anything — I think he will — but I think it's going to be more strategic exactly what he's going to put tariffs on.” I support that and feel his judgment is good enough to decide what to charge.”

What Trump promised:

He laid out a plan for growth — lower taxes, less regulation and smaller government — that he said would unleash American business.

What makes it complicated:

But analysts say reducing regulations may take longer than expected. And Trump is expected to prioritize extending expiring tax cuts over spending cuts.

Ms Boccia of the Cato Institute said she expected borrowing to rise under the Trump administration and the rise to add to inflationary pressures.

In financial markets, those concerns have already helped push interest rates on government debt higher in recent weeks, she noted.

Although Mr Trump will also face some opposition from those in his own party worried about the already high US debt, Ms Boccia said extending the tax cuts – which are expected to add more than $4.5 trillion to US debt over the next decade—seems almost certain.

In contrast, Trump banned much of the budget during his campaign, when he promised to leave big programs like Social Security unchanged.

The so-called Department of Government Effectiveness (DOGE), led by Elon Musk and Vivek Ramaswamy, has also publicly scaled back its ambitions.

“The signals that the market is sending right now are being picked up by economists, but not by Washington,” she said. “At the end of the day, politically, I take the path of least resistance.

What Trump voters want:

Mr. Maurer said shrinking red tape was key to his hopes for the administration.

“Government spending is absolute madness,” he said.

Additional reporting by Ana Faguy