Investing.com – Internet travel industry enters 2025 with mixed outlook, analysts Barclays (LON:) predicts a more challenging environment ahead.
While 2024 ended stronger than expected, Barclays notes that the rise in foreign exchange (FX) and high expectations are likely to reduce growth in 2025. The bank weighed in on several key terms in the article this week:
Booking Holdings (NASDAQ: ) stood out as a bullish pick in the Barclays report, despite its high valuation.
Barclays believes that BKNG remains a “name to own” for the long term due to “strong performance” and “expected growth (ex-FX),” supported by conservative restructuring. “We don't think there's much sense in restructuring, but there is definitely room for restructuring,” Barclays said.
While FX headwinds may impact short-term growth, Barclays says BKNG's international exposure and category mix, including double-digit growth in other residential and air costs, have positioned it for continued success.
Airbnb, on the other hand, faces a more cautious outlook, according to Barclays. The bank indicated “EBITDA margin compression” in 2025. The bank said that the company had previously signed this limited agreement, but analysts remain concerned that “the agreement is still very optimistic” about its ability to maintain profitability amid high investment in expanding its reach. Barclays set a price target of $110 for ABNB, noting that while its “share and traditional accommodation” is strengthening, growth initiatives are coming at a cost.
Expedia (NASDAQ:) shows a mixed setup, Barclays said. Compared to simple earnings among peers, EXPE is said to have benefited from its domestic exposure, which mitigates the impact of FX challenges.
However, the bank warns that the company faces softer domestic flows and uncertainty due to “regulatory changes” and potential margin pressures. Analysts raised their price target for EXPE from $153 to $166, acknowledging strong growth but stressing risks to performance challenges.
Finally, TripAdvisor (NASDAQ:) is expected to face a difficult 2025, with very high expectations for the company to meet. Barclays adjusted its growth assumption, citing a “sharp decline y/y” in the core business, as Viator and TheFork show the offer. Barclays expects a “point of marginal pressure” and remains cautious on TRIP's outlook for the year.