Mexico is rushing to provide additional shelter for tens of thousands of people in US border cities, one of which has declared a state of emergency ahead of Donald Trump's plan to remove record numbers of migrants.
People briefed on the plans say at least 60,000 additional shelters are being prepared after the US president-elect promised the largest deportations in the country's history, targeting people in the US illegally and with criminal records.
About half of the 11mn unauthorized immigrants in the US are estimated to be from Mexico. Some 662,000 US citizens have been convicted of or are facing criminal charges, according to Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE).
This week the city of Tijuana declared a state of emergency due to the expected arrival of people, while in nearby Mexicali the mayor said the city would convert the conference center to accommodate the people.
Two people familiar with the plans said the federal government had hoped to open 25 shelters, each with a capacity of 2,500 people, to receive displaced Mexicans, but was keeping it quiet and flexible as the numbers were uncertain.
The government declined to comment and sent the FT to President Claudia Sheinbaum's public messages on the matter.
Trump, who was inaugurated on Monday, threatened Mexico with tariffs of 25 percent on all goods exported to the US if it does not do more to prevent migrants as well. drugs at the border crossing. You have legal options to deport people, including executive orders and public health restrictions.
Sheinbaum took a broader view of the public's harsh response to Trump than to other world leaders, provides advice on retaliatory rates.
The leftist leader said his party had a plan to respond to the ouster but did not reveal details ahead of time. The government will have to deal with the influx while implementing double-digit budget cuts to the Foreign Office and the National Migration Agency.
A proposed “panic button” app for migrants to alert their nearest consulate if they believe they are about to be deported has not been launched due to technical difficulties. Additional attorneys will be present at the 53 Mexican consulates in the US.
The government even released a the new national anthem for immigrants.
“We've been working for months, since President Trump's announcement, on welcoming our citizens in the best possible way,” Sheinbaum said this week. “Yes, we do not agree (with the dismissal).”
Trump's tough position on the border was one of the drivers of his victory in the November election, after crossings in the US reached record levels during Joe Biden's presidency. But Mexico's break with Washington's request, along with expanded legal channels, has reduced irregular crossings over the past year.
The US has carried out deportations for much of its history, with a record number removed in fiscal year 2012 under President Barack Obama, when ICE deported more than 409,000 people. In fiscal year 2024, Biden removed more than 271,000 people, according to US government data.
However, both the scale and the profile of the migrants who will be deported are now likely to change significantly.
During Trump's first term, Mexico took in immigrants from all over the world, initially those who were waiting for asylum claims and later those who were pushed across the border during the Covid-19 pandemic.
Sheinbaum suggested this month that he would be open to accepting other nationalities, but it remains unclear whether Mexico will take back citizens deported inside the US and those near the border.
Returning migrants to their countries presents legal and operational difficulties for the US where those countries are under administrative pressure or do not have friendly relations with Washington.
“If a person from Venezuela or Nicaragua is arrested in Chicago after living in the US for five years, and it is impossible for them to fly to Caracas or Managua, do the authorities expect Mexico to take them with them?” said Adam Isacson, defense director of the Washington Office on Latin America.
The numbers may not increase immediately, as Trump faces challenges including a lack of detention facilities, flights and cooperation from other police forces.
Chad Wolf, Trump's former acting secretary of homeland security, suggested that the initial goal would surpass Obama-era deportation levels.
“My guess is they can beat that in the first year, that's an achievement,” he told the FT. “They will have to scale it up to a place that has never been scaled before.” . . all this will take time.”
The economic and social system can be important in both directions. US industries such as construction and agriculture depend on undocumented workers, while remittances to Mexico were worth $63bn by 2023 – more than foreign investment or tourism.
People who work with migrants in Mexico say thousands of people could be at risk of being recruited by gangs if they are dumped in northern cities rife with organized crime.
Mexico has historically lacked the infrastructure to integrate returning citizens, according to Maggie Loredo, an activist who works with displaced migrants in Mexico.
“There's really no provision for people who have been arrested,” he said. “Those people are in other vulnerable situations.”
Andrew Selee, Director of the Washington-based Migration Policy Center, said additional deportations would require housing, transportation, identification documents, job fairs and mental health benefits.
“The Mexican government (did) . . . It must remain ready for the next six months, he said, adding that it must “find ways to connect migrants from other countries who will be stuck in Mexico”.