Intense solar flares—sudden bursts of electromagnetic radiation from the Sun—can shoot off dangerous levels of energy strong enough to reach Earth's atmosphere. However, predicting solar flares is not as easy as predicting a sunny day.
A team of researchers led by heliophysicist Emily Mason of Predictive Sciences Inc. has identified a type of solar activity within the Sun's atmosphere that may precede and signal an impending solar flare. Their research is detailed on December 6th. study Published in Astrophysics Journal Letters and presented on January 15 during the 245th meeting of the American Astronomical Society, has important implications in efforts to keep astronauts and space assets safe.
Indeed, predicting solar flares is critical to protecting both people and technology from the sun's fluctuating bursts. Solar flares can disrupt satellite communications, GPS systems, and electrical grids on Earth. At the same time, it exposes astronauts and spacecraft to dangerous levels of radiation. A reliable early warning system is therefore a promising tool for mitigating space weather hazards.
Mason and her colleagues used NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory to analyze the coronal flickering. which is a curve-like structure in the Sun's outer atmosphere Also known as corona. In as many as 50 strong solar flares, coronal rings exist in the same magnetic zone as the Sun and produce solar flares as well. NASA statement– The researchers observed that the brightness of the corona in extreme ultraviolet light changed more in the hours before the nearby large flare than the corona over regions without flares.
“We found that intense ultraviolet light above some radioactive regions flickers abnormally for a few hours before a solar flare occurs,” Mason explained in a statement. “The results are very important for understanding flares and may improve our ability to predict hazardous space weather.”
The researchers suggest that observing variations in ultraviolet brightness in the corona could predict future solar flares two to six hours in advance with 60 to 80 percent accuracy, if proven true. It will be more accurate than previously attempted forecasting methods.
“The sun's corona is a constantly changing environment. And each solar flare is like a snowflake. Each flame is unique,” said Kara Kniezewski of the Air Force Institute of Technology. “We found that finding periods of 'chaotic' behavior in coronal loop emissions rather than a specific trend. It provides much more consistent indicators.”
Vadim Uritsky of NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center also participated in the study. Imagine creating “Well-tested and more appropriate indicators “This[solar flare]is ready for the leap from research to operations.” The researchers also suggest that the stronger the flare, the more The peaks flicker faster. But they admit that further analysis is needed to confirm this possible aspect.
Scientists have been trying to predict solar flares for decades. If recent studies prove this to be true. Corona loop flashes can act like flashing alarms for people and technology in a dangerous way.