The CIA now believes the virus responsible for the Covid-19 pandemic most likely originated in a lab, according to an assessment released Saturday that points the finger to China, although it admits the spy agency has “little confidence” in its own conclusions.
The discovery is not the result of any new intelligence, and the report was prepared at the behest of the Biden administration and former CIA Director William Burns. The document was declassified and published on Saturday at the behest of President Donald Trump's pick to head the agency, John Ratcliffe, who was sworn in as director on Thursday.
This mixed finding suggests that the agency believes the totality of the evidence makes a laboratory origin more likely than a natural one. However, the agency's assessment assigns a low degree of certainty to this conclusion, suggesting that the evidence is insufficient, inconclusive or contradictory.
Previous reports on the origins of Covid-19 have been divided on whether the coronavirus emerged from a Chinese lab, potentially by mistake, or whether it arose naturally. The new assessment is unlikely to end the debate. In fact, intelligence officials say the problem may never be resolved due to a lack of cooperation from Chinese authorities.
The CIA “continues to evaluate whether research-related and natural origin scenarios of the Covid-19 pandemic remain credible,” the agency said in a statement about its new assessment.
Instead of new evidence, the conclusions were based on fresh intelligence analyzes of the spread of the virus, its scientific properties, and the work and conditions in China's virology laboratories.
US lawmakers have pressed US spy agencies for more information about the origins of the virus that has led to lockdowns, economic shock and millions of deaths. It's a question with significant domestic and geopolitical implications as the world continues to grapple with the legacy of the pandemic.
“Make China pay,” says Republican senator
Republican Sen. Tom Cotton of Arkansas, chairman of the Senate Intelligence Committee, said Saturday that he was “pleased that the CIA concluded late in the Biden administration that the lab leak theory was the most likely explanation” and praised Ratcliffe for declassification assessment.
“The most important thing now is for China to pay for unleashing a plague on the world,” Cotton said in a statement.
Chinese authorities have dismissed speculation about the origins of Covid-19 as unhelpful and politically motivated. On Saturday, a spokesman for the U.S. embassy in China said the CIA report was not credible.
“Stay away from conspiracy theories,” advises a Chinese official
“We strongly oppose the politicization and stigmatization of the source of the virus and once again call on everyone to respect science and stay away from conspiracy theories,” embassy spokesman Liu Pengyu said in a statement emailed to The Associated Press.
Although the origins of the virus remain unknown, scientists believe the most likely hypothesis is that it spread among bats, like many other coronaviruses, before infecting another species, possibly raccoon dogs, civets or bamboo rats. In turn, the infection spread to people handling or slaughtering these animals at a market in Wuhan, where the first human cases appeared in late November 2019.
However, some official investigations have raised questions about whether the virus escaped from a Wuhan laboratory. Two years ago, a Department of Energy report concluded that a lab leak was the most likely source, although that report also expressed low confidence in that finding.
That same year, then-FBI Director Christopher Wray said his agency believed the virus “most likely” spread after escaping from a lab.
Ratcliffe, who served as director of national intelligence during Trump's first term, said he also favored the lab leak scenario.
“Lab leak is the only theory supported by science, intelligence and common sense,” Ratcliffe said in 2023.
The CIA stated that it would continue to evaluate any new information that could change its assessment.