Fires that devastated districts in Los Angeles, killing 28 people and burning over 16,000 houses and buildings are not one -off, according to the new quick analysis. And scientists say they are much more likely because of climate change.
The shocking scenes of fires approaching city blocks in the third largest metropolis of North America lead home, like a climate crisis close to people and communities. . New studyFrom the group of weather attribution (Wwa), he claims that the conditions behind the fires were about 35 percent more likely compared to pre -industrial times.
If global warming is continued along the current trajectories, the fire conditions will be another 35 percent more likely until 2100 – painting the gloomy picture of the future of La and Southern California.
“Without a faster passage than fossil fuels heating the planet in California, it will be more and more warmer, drier and easier,” said Clair Barnes, co-author of the WWA and researcher report at Imperial College London.
Since southern California is gaining rain very needed, the new analysis suggests that the conditions that led to January fires were 35 percent more likely due to climate change from people. The greater the probability that these fires will be, the more expensive they will get for everyone.
In a study conducted by an international team of 32 researchers, he used global climate models to projection of weather conditions that drive fires since pre -Industrial times. To be published quickly, the study was not reviewed or published in the scientific journal, but is based on the fixed attribution methods.
These conditions are expected to happen once every 17 years, although they will happen more often when global temperatures continue to grow.
Simply put, climate change delayed the rains and intensified the hot and dry conditions that turned the vegetation around La into fuel, and then strong winds made these fires went where they were normally. All this will become more likely because global temperatures will grow.
Delayed winter rain extends the fire season
“The delayed beginning of winter rains is a significant problem because it ends with the extending fire season, which means that there are many possibilities of weather events, such as these wind events to adapt to the ignition,” said John Abatzoglou, professor of atmospherology at University of California Merced and one of the research co -authors.
He noticed that when all these things set up, there is a greater risk that one of the resulting fires becomes “very difficult to suppress”.
Dry conditions also occurred after a few years in which California saw more rain, which led to an increase in vegetation in the area. Abatzoglou says that this means that there is even more fuel to burning, allowing the fire to spread.
And the basic conditions are set to get worse. According to the WWA report, low rainfall from October to December is now 2.4 times more likely, increasing the risk of dry vegetation susceptible to fire. It also means that dry conditions converge more precisely with the strong Santa Ana wind, which helped spread these fires and in general the peak between December and January.
In total, dry conditions susceptible to fire in southern California expand by about 23 days a year, increasing the risk for cities like LA, according to the study.
Abatzoglou says that he hopes that destructive fires will act as awakening so that the state can be prepared to face these conditions next time.
“Because it will be next time.”