Canadian leaders spent weeks, trying to avoid the threat of US President Donald Trump to impose 25 % tariffs on goods heading on this side of the border.
The US leader repeated this threat On Thursday afternoonJust two days before the date of February 1 His administration suggested Tariffs can be implemented.
Among these tensions, CBC readers ask how the United States can do this when they signed the Canada-U-Myxic (Cusma)-commercial-commercial one, which appeared after Trump forced the renegotia of the North American Trade Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) Not so long ago.
However, experts of economics and commercial law claim that the US could, according to Cusma, recall national security as a justification for their actions and orcs with tariffs, knowing that Canada cannot prevent it.
“The trade agreement is only a treaty … and treaties can be broken,” said Gus van Harten, a professor of commercial and investment law at the University of York in Toronto.
Together with the US President Donald Trump threatening the tariffs to breaking the economy, Adrienne Arsenault from CBC asks Alex Panstta and Catherine Cullen from CBC to break down what Trump really wants from Canada.
Erin Brown, a partner at the Norton Rose Fulbright law firm and a member of his cross -border task law of commercial law, agreed that Canada has no way for Canada to keep the tariff in the US, through Cusma himself.
“In fact, Cusma … there is a lack of teeth,” she said in an interview.
In any case, the US willingness to threaten Canada – and Mexico – seems to emphasize the dissatisfaction of Trump's administration with status quo when it comes to trade.
“I would interpret (threatened) tariffs as a statement that they are enrolling a trade agreement,” said Torsten Søchting Jaccard, assistant professor at the University of British Columbia at Vancouver School of Economics.
Why Cusma?
Trump was critical of Nafta Before he reached the White House. Cusma was negotiated during the first term in an oval office.
Canada, Mexico and the USA have agreed to the terms of the Cusma agreement In autumn 2018But it was like that Further changed next year Before ratification eventually it took place in 2020.
Canadian government Summary of Cusmy's results He says that the contract was aimed at strengthening economic ties between three parties, while maintaining the commercial benefits that Nafta brought, with some corrections “to solve contemporary trade challenges and opportunities.”
Robert Lightizer, USA commercial representative During the first Trump administration, At that time, the appearance of Cusmy hailed as a “breakthrough” to stimulate the production and investment in the economy of North America.
Brown from Norton Rose Fulbright said that Canada's goal when signing commercial contracts such as Cusma is to facilitate trade – and this includes a tariff solution.
“The basic rules of Cusma and other trade agreements are such that we reduce or eliminate tariffs,” she said.
Another goal of a commercial agreement, such as Cusma, is to achieve “a sense of stability”, says Jaccard from UBC, noting that all the activities that the US take on the contrary may undermine his reputation in trade.
However, there are signs that the Trump administration may have a mixture of motivation for ruling a tariff threat now.
Tariffs earlier, after Cusma
Canada has already met with US tariffs during the first term of Trump – both before and after Cusmy.
In the spring of 2018, the White House led by Trump He cited national security When attacking Canadian steel with 25 % tariffs and aluminum with 10 % tariffs. Ottawa took revenge with Tariffs own. Only that Almost a year laterHowever, that both sides announced that they were withdrawing tariffs.
Along with the threat of American American tariffs, many encourage buyers to buy Canada – but Lyndsay Duncombe with CBC breaks down why it can be more difficult than you think to buy Canadian.
But Trump again turned to the tariffs in August 2020, 10 % tariff hit on Canadian aluminum, Reflecting on national security while imposing them. Canada in turn Threatened retaliationAnd on this occasion, the US President stopped Tariffs in the next month.
A series of exceptions is specified in Cusma, including Article about “Essential Security” who states that nothing in the contract excludes any of the parties to “the use of funds that he considers to be necessary to fulfill his obligations in relation to maintaining or restoring international peace or security or protecting his own significant security interests. ”
The translation consists in the fact that the US is able to move forward with tariffs with this justification.
Hearing Trump and Other administration officials Call fears regarding the trade and migration of fentanyl, Brown said that the president's administration can go accordingly in the direction of a “exception of national security” in order to justify tariffs.
What can Canada do with it? This may apply for the process of resolving disputes, but Van Harten from the University of York said that this is not a process overnight and in his opinion there is no guarantee that Canada will finally succeed.
“Even if we win, the medicine is permission for retaliation sanctions,” said Van Harten, noting that before this happened, all imposed tariffs would be badly hurt by Canada's economy.
At a broader level, Brown said that Trump does not seem to “feel too narrowed” by an international order based on principles that has long regulated trade. This may affect what to expect from his administration.
“I don't think he was ready to tear it down completely,” Brown warned, noticing that Trump is He indicated that he wanted to renegotiate Cusma.
Future
Van Harten claims that Trump's recent actions mean “a whole change of policy that draws us from the whole era of globalization,” and his administration focuses on putting America in the first place.
And he says that he believes that Canada will be constantly exposed to the risk of US whims, unless it chooses a different path forward.
“If we do not change … we will always be threatened,” said Van Harten, who says that Ottawa has long anticipated the misleading picture of the benefits of commercial transactions, such as Cusma, after making a decision to go in this direction In front of the kerosene.
Jaccard UBC, on the other hand, would look more like a continuation of Canada's open approach to trade in the world as a forward road.
He said that this may include work on the extension of Canada's range to other markets around the world or see how this country buys more in the international arena – than from the USA