The odds are jokes. For example, 1-in-100 sounds like Annil, which you find it is an opportunity for the asteroid to affect the world. In a surprising time – but not clear – a warning system in advance this week meet The asteroids set to swing to the world in 2032. There is a chance of 1-in-63 that will enter our world. This is what you need to know about the asteroid. The impact that may occur and why there is no reason to panic. At least not
What we know about the asteroid 2024 years
The latest notification system of the asteroid (atlas) in Chile, first found the asteroid on December 27, 2024 Atlas reporting the asteroid immediately to the secondary planet, which is a house deduction house for small body position measurements such as Stars and planets
The asteroid is between 130 and 300 feet (40 to 90 meters) according to the estimated reflected light. Now it moves out of the world 8.24 miles per second (13.26 kilometers per second).
According to the information of the NASA's world -of -world educational center, 2024 years can affect the world for six times between 2032 and 2071, but the greatest chance is on December 22, 1972. The probability of 2024 years Pass
“It is about to move away from the sun, go farther and farther and faint and more faded,” said Paul Chodos, the director of Cneos said in calling with GizModo. “The important thing is that it fading. It requires a large and larger telescope and in April, we think it will be too interesting to observe with the largest telescope. “
As ordered Published Wednesday by the international asteroid warning network, the risk of impact for the asteroid “enlarged throughout the Eastern Pacific Ocean, South America, South, Atlantic, Africa, Arab and South Asia.”
Dangerous asteroids, such as 2024 YR4, is normal to disturb.
The asteroid is May be dangerous According to the standard of NASA, if there is a diameter between 100 and 165 (30 to 50 meters) and the orbits of the sun, bring them within 5 million miles (8 fatigue) of our own orbit. But the asteroid that may be dangerous (Phas) may not collide with the world. The asteroid may cause bright fireballs which explode and separate in the atmosphere, depending on the size and angle that comes in.
The material from space falls on earth every day. Throughout the period of about 5,200 tons (10,000 Grand Piano) Value of space dust The land on earth, but it can't be seen because or the size of it. The size of the asteroid is an important reason for the amount of damage to the impact and now scientists do not have enough information to know the exact mass of 2024 years.
Many systems are checking the Neo and all are involved in the risk measurement of each object. Posting of the world's atmosphere and the impact Catalina Sky Survey and Lincoln near Estroid Research Program (linear) is dedicated to the study of Neos, including a dangerous asteroid but another Telescopes and observations also play an important role in memorizing in 2023. The newly set of precious algorithms will be used to survey the area and 10 years of Vera Rubin Observater. Found its first PAShows a new road that is likely to survive from anxious objects.
How to calculate the probability of the asteroid
NE'er-Do-Wells Near the world, assembled into NASA Risk schedule for the impact of the guardsManaged by CNEOS. The guards are an automatic inspection system that calculates the possibility of the impact of the asteroid continuously.
2024 years. Currently, there is an order or wedding manufacturer that is possible with important gross profit margin. The probability of the current accumulated is 1-in-63 or 1.58% of the effects (which should emphasize the opportunity 98.4% that the asteroids miss the world). In the second position on the Sentry's table is 29075 ( 1950 DA) which has little chance to hit the world (The odds are 1-in-2,600) and is expected to have such impacts until 2880.
Lucas Janson, a statistical person at Harvard University, shows that pulling the Ace of Spades (or any card for that) from the card deck is 1-in-52 or 1.92%. In other words, you tend to pull AC. Of the roof from the year 2024 years, which will affect the world. Janson proposed the probability that is close to 2024 years, 1.6%. The chances of bumping: There is a 1.56% chance of turning the coin six consecutive times and has. Each head on the head Those odds are almost the same as in the year 2024 years in the world in 2032, depending on how the crispy you are. The event is unfortunate or it is possible that you will feel perfect.
The probability of the asteroid has two main scales or measurements.
The CNEOS Sentry table is automatically lined up with their accumulated danger. Screams of the technical impact of Plermo Developed by the NEO expert. This scale compares the probability of the impact that may occur with the average or larger object risk to the expected date. In other words, the scale scale tells scientists that the largest problem in the table is the specified period by comparing the threat of the asteroid that has been due to the dangers of other space stones.
The Plermo scale does not have to be confused with the level of danger to the impact of Torino. Another way to measure the danger caused by the asteroid. The Torino scale is like the time of the earthquake or scale. SAFFIR-SIMPSON For the Hurricane system that you may be familiar with the Torino scale is a color scale from 0 to 10 (white to red), which indicates the victory of the threat of the asteroid.
2024 YR4 is 3 at the Torino level, which means that the confrontation close to the asteroid is “Interest from astronomers” according to CNEOS, the 3rd planets have “1% or more opportunities in the collision that can be destroyed,” CNEOS said, “The observation of new liquid telescopic will lead to the assignment again. To level 0 “in order to be in a threat or orange. The zone of the Torino, 2024 YR4 level must achieve level 5.
If you don't follow all, don't be discouraged. “Torinos is too easy to make people satisfied. But Pillarmo is too complicated to communicate with the public easily, “Bruce Bruce, the head scientist of the planet society, said in the phone with Gyzmodo.
Betts added that the impact rate is likely to creep before they decrease as zero due to the uncertainty in the path of the asteroid. If the uncertainty in the path is reduced But the world is still in a way that may occur smartly. After that, when observing, tracking, reducing more possible routes (In the ideal and in the past), it fell out of the shock path, causing Probability To be plummeted to the center In fact, 2024 years began this week at the 1-in-83 impact rate, which increased to 1-in-71 at Midweek. Today, CNEOS's Sentry updates the numbers 1-in-63, but this is Important for the curriculum for adjusting the potential route of the asteroid and observation and the creation of models will be important in determining whether the world remains in the orbits of the asteroid or not.
The 2024 year impact will be very bad but not a disaster.
2024 YR4 is a large asteroid. (Although the mass of it has a lot of rooms), but the effect on the world will occur. Does not cause A world -class disaster that is similar to what happened by a 6 mile (10 km) meteorite that hit the world 66 million years before the end of the dinosaur reign. The impact will produce approximately 8 megan energy equivalent to the explosion of Tunguska in 1908. As NASA– But that is, if the asteroids are on the narrow side of the mass -F period, it is about two times the size, it can drive almost 300 megan energy and damage from the disaster in a wide area.
CNEOS is still useful. resource Or the hypothesis that indicates that scientists can respond to the threat of the asteroid with different sizes, orbits and warnings. These CNEOS situations – which Play every year In the IAA planetary protection meeting – an important testing area of the emergency preparation of humanity in the face of the upcoming planet
Other harmful asteroids are on the horizon.
As soon as the year 2024, it emerged on an astronomer radar that is a possible threat. There are other asteroids on April 13, 2029 – Friday by means – Asteroid 99942 Apophis Will swing to our world near 20,000 miles (32,000 km). Apophis was discovered in 2004 and 1,100 feet (3,100 meters (335 meters) is larger than 2024 years. It is the only asteroid with high scores. More than 2024 years of Torino, which (temporarily) was ranked in Class 4 at the end of 2004.
There is a preliminary concern that Apophis can affect the world in 2068, but NASA's calculation in 2021 Specified That the asteroid is not a threat at least a century Now, the Torino Apophis score is 0. The change is a warning that the observation of the asteroid with uncertain orbiting is very important to determining the exact way – the difference between the normal day on Earth. And disaster
Fortunately, 2024 years will safely pass the world on December 17, 1978, giving scientists the opportunity to observe in detail. This Flyby can help adjust the estimation of mass, density, physical characteristics, orbits, other important factors.
Scientists are working Tirelesly to reduce -and oppose -threats from space.
Shortly after Apophis's odds were calculated and researchers near the world, sighed with a big relief. NASA scientists pulled one of The most ambitious mission But in Spaceflight, it is a test of changing the asteroid route twice or the dart and the time when NASA scientists Proven Humanity can change the way of the asteroid. In other words, life on earth may Nothing to do nothing anymore In the face of destruction that may occur from space, while we are about to have the ability to nudge the asteroids out of the path.
“This is a large natural disaster that we can actually prevent,” said Bett. “The first thing you have to do is what happens to this discovery – you have to find them.”
In the next few months, ESA is coordinating the observation of asteroids that have more powerful telescopes, including a large telescope of the European David. Betts observed that the researchers have now specified 2024 years. Regarding objects, it may help customize its orbit. (It's a situation “Chicken or another,” said Betts)
Chodas told GIZMODO that the infrared observation of space is perfect for observing the asteroid. But it is difficult to prove that the observation of Web's space telescopes The probability and probability of the impact and probability and probability impact and probability and probability impact is still low.
“We are often asked.” Are you worried? “Chodas said.” With a 99% chance that this asteroid will not miss. The community is not worried. But we have to pay attention to it, because even though 1% are very small