General panorama view of City of London, the capital's financial district in October.
SOPA paintings Lightrock | Getty images
Global markets were hit fresh volatility This week, after US President Donald Trump confirmed the plans to put tariffs on imports from the three largest trading partners in America.
Trump on Monday he agreed to stop for 30 days 25% of tariffs for imports from Mexico and Canada, after both countries agreed to take steps to limit fentanyl opioids crossing borders to the United States.
However, there was no break for China, which are directed 10% of import tariffs – and then he took revenge with Tariffs of up to 15% for American goods.
Further, European economies are also threatened with Trump's tariff regime. US President he told journalists On Sunday, the EU tariffs “will definitely happen” – but stated that the agreement “can be developed” with Great Britain, a nation with which trade in the USA is more balanced.
“Great Britain is out of line. But I am sure that one, I think, can be developed, “Trump said to reporters, adding that he” gets along very well “with the leftist Prime Minister Keir in Great Britain Keir Starmer.
Starr he told journalists This week, that he discussed trade in talks with Trump and would not choose pages between the USA and the EU, according to The Guardian.
Meanwhile, the Minister of Finance in Great Britain Rachel Reeves he insisted last month that Great Britain “is not part of the problem” As for the trade deficits that Trump wants to improve his tariff policy.
According to the USA, he was the largest trading partner in Great Britain in September 2024 official dataconstituting over 17% of total trade in Great Britain.
Depending on which numbers you look at, both countries or have little trade deficit Or surplus. What is important for Trump – which hates it when the US exports less to the country than imports – the numbers are almost balanced.
How The British economy is fighting – with Reeves Speaking last month That “she fought every day to start” growth – several analysts said CNBC that the economy could get an increase as a result of Trump's trade war.
Service economy
Irina Surdu-Nardella, a professor of international business and strategy at the Warwick Business School, said CNBC that even if the United Kingdom is hit by tariffs, the impact could be more muted than expected.
“In fact, an impact on the British market would be relatively limited to industries such as fishing and mining,” she said. “The character of the British economy focusing on the service is significantly due to the consequences of tariffs. Tariffs are particularly harmful to industries with complex supply chains, where goods repeatedly cross the border, because companies try to transform the input data into end goods. It is not a case of the British market, which mainly exports banking services and consulting to the USA “
The five largest exports of goods in the UK to America are cars, drugs and pharmaceutical products, mechanical energy generators, scientific instruments and aircraft, with a total value of 25.6 billion pounds (USD 31.8 billion).
The value of these exports, however, was overshadowed by its largest export of services, including financial services and insurance, which had a total total value of 109.6 billion pounds.
“Only set”
Neri Karra Sollan from the University of Oxford Said Business School said that avoiding tariffs is an ideal scenario because it can strengthen key industries in Great Britain.
“If the United Kingdom remains free of tariffs, it could be unique to attract investments, talents and new trading partnerships,” CNBC said on Tuesday.
“Thanks to tariffs forcing companies to find more profitable nodes, Great Britain can become a preferred gate for companies that want to bypass restrictions,” she said. “Sectors such as luxury, fashion, pharmaceuticals and advanced production – in which Great Britain is already standing out – they could drink investment and commercial possibilities.”
She added that the British sectors, including the automotive, air and financial industry, can also take advantage of increased demand if American buyers looked outside tariff suppliers.
“We saw these patterns earlier – every trade war changes global economic balance, and it can be a moment for the United Kingdom to use changes, be an active player, not an observer,” said Sollamman CNBC.
New Safe Przystania?
Alex King, former FX salesman and founder of Personal Finance Platform Generations moneyHe agreed that Trump's policy could ensure a certain economic relief.
“When the US was first imposed on China tariffs, Chinese producers directed many of their goods through Vietnam and Thailand to the USA to avoid tariffs,” King said via e -mail. “If the United Kingdom avoids tariffs, this is a potentially favorable position to take advantage of a similar EU routing.”
The king also argued that British pound It can become a “main winner” of a potential trade war, noting that after the initial Trump's tariff confirmation last week, the pound increased in relation to the euro, Canadian dollar and the currency of Australia and New Zealand.
GBP/USD
He said that it was a sign of global investors, “he could perceive Great Britain as a potential safe haven.”
“Ultimately, Great Britain can be one of the few main economies with a relatively non-dissertation access to both the US and the EU, which makes this pound-proof winner.”
On Tuesday, Sterling enlivened some of its profits against the euro to slightly reduce trade around 83.13 pens per euro. However, the pound has strengthened in relation to the American dollar.
“Place for overweight”
Dan Boardman-Weston, general director of BRI Wealth Management, said that Great Britain has a “chance to fight” to avoid American tariffs, which makes her an attractive market for investors.
“If Trump takes tariffs to other countries, this is likely in Great Britain, and this depresses inflation,” he said. “Larger internal investments in Great Britain are also likely if the tariffs deteriorate and become a more durable feature of the global trade landscape.”
He noticed that interest rates would probably fall further and faster in Great Britain than in the USA, which may cause the assessment of British companies along with a decrease in profits on British government bonds known as Gilts.
“When it is combined with the relative political stability of Great Britain and cheap valuation, Great Britain is a place where you can be overweight in 2025.” – he argued.
This means that the dynamics of Great Britain-Europy has changed, according to Chris Metcalfe, the investment director at Iboss Asset Management.
“In the case of foreign investors since 2016, there are reasons to choose the EU area in Great Britain, mainly because it is simply a larger market,” said CNBC on Tuesday.
“Although Trump's tariff policy can look chaotic and silted, it is difficult to see the script in which it turns the course and imposes more tariffs to Great Britain, not the EU. Undoubtedly, this creates a positive background for attracting American companies and investments to Great Britain, especially considering political chaos in France and Germany. “