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From the hotly debated Tesla (TSLA), Wall Street's latest beloved Rivian (RIVN), traditional stalwarts turned EV-upstarts GM (GM) and Ford (F) for the many SPAC deal makers that have gone public in this red hot space, The Fly has you covered with “Charged,” a weekly roundup of the top stories and expert calls in the sector.
C4 DELIVERY: Barclays expects Tesla to report Q4 deliveries of 515,000 units, up 6% year-over-year and slightly above the consensus estimate of 511,000. A beat could keep the stock's narrative momentum strong, but the focus on Tesla's fundamentals is generally limited, the company tells investors in a research note. Barclays believes that a small failure in the near term would “likely do little to dampen” Tesla's autonomous vehicle and artificial intelligence push, which he says has come into greater focus recently ahead of the planned “Unsupervised FSD” launch in 2025. Conversely, a small beat on Q4 is likely to be irrelevant to the majority of Tesla's current bull case , the company adds. He maintains an Equal Weight rating on Tesla with a price target of $270.
NOT AS POSITIVE: Barclays also said it believed the post-election rally in Tesla shares reflected a “sharp disconnect” between the stock and the company's fundamentals. Technicals and options are playing a big role in the rally, the company tells investors in a research note. Barclays believes that the best way to enforce Tesla shares is crypto. There aren't many incremental positives to Tesla's fundamentals from the election, but Elon Musk's premium is now higher, argues the company. The past six weeks “are a reminder that Tesla remains the narrative king in the market, fundamentals aside,” he adds.
Although consensus 2025 earnings estimates have increased slightly in the past six weeks, Tesla's multiple has increased to a “naily” 145 times numbers in 2025, up from 80 times immediately before the election, Barclays notes. He calls Trump “not as positive as you'd think” about Tesla's fundamentals. The company maintains an Equal Weight rating on Tesla with a price target of $270.