Coal piles waiting for PrzeTransport at the Guoyuan port container terminal in Chongqing, China.
Cfoto Future publishing house Getty images
In the near future, the world will not be able to spend its grip into coal.
“Nothing can destroy coal”, US President Donald Trump – he said at the last World Economic Forum. “Not weather, not a bomb.”
Expresses coal in the USA They are constantly growing to satisfy the growing global demand for the world's most difficult fossil fuel, despite the fact that its domestic wear has decreased.
In addition, the global coal capacity reached a new record level of almost 2175 gigawats in 2024, Data from the global energy monitor showed on February 6. Coal capacity is general output power that can be generated from coal power plants.
“The global departure from coal remains difficult, largely caused by the growing demand in Asia, even when Europe and the USA see significant drops in coal consumption,” said Dorothy Mei, project manager Global Energy Monitor Global Węgiel.
It is also expected that the global demand for coal has violated another fresh record level of 8.77 billion tons in 2024 and will remain at similar levels until 2027,, International Energy Agency expected.
The main culprit?
China has recently informed this Coal imports increased by 14.4% to the record in 2024.in the amount of 542.7 million metric tons compared to 474.42 million tons of a year earlier.
The second largest economy in the world is also the largest coal consumer around the world, which is over 56% of global demand in 2023, Showed the latest data by IEA.
The record strategy of developing stocks in China is largely focused on preparing the country for potential power shortages caused by extreme weather events, said Mei.
It doesn't focus much on the effective use of energy when coal is so cheap.
Water, wind and solar energy energy it accounted for almost 30% of the Chinese electric mixture In 2023, data from Energy Think Tank Emergy was demonstrated. When the output water energy decreases as a result of insufficient rainfall, the Chinese government is often based on coal strength to ensure energy security, added Mei.
“In addition, the next main barrier is not the availability of renewable energy infrastructure, but the difficulty in sending solar and wind energy in the provinces,” she said, adding that the coal will continue to be a “critical energy spine” in China, until the integration of the network and the network and the integration of the management network It is fully developed throughout the country.
In India, extreme heat induced with a climate led to an increase in the demand for energy for cooling, and clean energy sources are not quickly built enough to meet the growing demand for the energy of the country.
According to the analysts that CNBC talked to, the focus on economic development and infrastructure also increased the consumption of cement and steel, industries that are very dependent on coal.
The demand of the South Asian nation to steel is expected to increase by 8-9% in 2025, ahead of the demand of other economies, due to reception in steel construction in infrastructure and residential sectors, Data from the Crisil consulting company showed.
In December last year India has expanded their directive For imported coal power plants to full capacity until February 28.
This does not mean, however, that India neglects their renewable energy goals. The country has set an ambitious goal satisfying 50% of the needs of electricity through renewable energy until 2030 and has made progress. And from October last year Renewable energy sources account for over 46.3% According to the Indian Ministry of New Energy and Renewable Renewable Energy.
Apart from China and India
Global Energy Monitor, apart from India and China, other best countries building new coal plants, are Bangladesh, Indonesia and Vietnam.
It is expected that Vietnam surpassed Taiwan as a world Fifth coal importerafter the import of coal in the country achieved Record high in over a decade last year.
Indonesia Coal production Last year, it results from about 831 million tons to reach a fresh level, showed data from the Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources.
Ember Energy informed Ember Energy that the participation of coal in the Philippines Electricity Mix “Filipins Electricity” crossed China in China, becoming the most-dependent country on the country of Southeast Asia.
“Not much focuses on the effective use of energy when coal is so cheap,” said Dave Jones, an electricity analyst at Energy Think Tank Emergy.
The strong demand for coal in Asia in all the board is also partly a consequence of the increase in gas prices since Russia's invasion of Ukraine, taking into account that many main heat coal importers, such as China, India and Vietnam, have reduced Bades plans for gas -based gas -based drive plans gas. After the resulting high gas prices, said Ian Roper, a freight strategist at Astris Advisory Japan KK.
AI factor
Global electricity consumption is expected to grow in 2025, IEA said.
“The world needs more energy and needs it now,” said Rob Thummel, a senior portfolio manager at Tortoise Capital. “In order for the global economy to grow, requires efficient, profitable and reliable sources of energy supply,” CNBC said.
Artificial intelligence also accelerated the need for the world to energy. Reports have shown that the needs of power powered by data centers around the world will also extend the demand for coal.
“The United States, China and the world are in the AI superiority race,” said Tim Winter, portfolio manager at Gabella Funds. He explained that AI data centers are huge advanced users, which hinders a reliable and inexpensive source of energy such as coal.
By 2030, the demand for electricity from data centers may exceed 35 GW, more than twice as much as 17 GW registered in 2022, Moody ranking report was shown.
Is the transition of energy still possible?
With a faster increase in the global demand for electricity, other industry observers begin to reflect the forecasts of IEA Coal demands remained at the highest level.
“There is no transition when the demand for crude oil, coal, still achieves record levels,” said Eric Nutall, senior portfolio manager at NinePoint Partners.
The governments agreed to Climate agreement 2015 Paris To limit global heating to far below 2 degrees Celsius and make efforts to reduce temperature increase to 1.5 degrees Celsius. To prevent the global warming by 1.5 degrees Celsius, it is estimated that The emissions must be reduced by 45% to 2030 and reach zero net by 2050..
Others are less pessimistic, although they recognized the challenge related to achieving these goals in time.
Continuous oaths towards renewable energy sources, next to the upcoming Increase in global LNG delivery It can ensure that the import of coal still weakens in some markets for importing coal, said Roper, who noticed that coal consumption has fallen in Europe and North Eastern Asia in recent years.
In addition, if the countries commit to the promises of three times renewable energy sources by 2030, coal could begin to record a significant decrease in this decade, said Jones Energy.