On Thursday, a nationwide mourning for the victims of the plane crash was announced in Azerbaijan. 38 people died and 29 survivors were injured speculations about the possible cause of the disaster have increased.
Azerbaijan Airlines' Embraer 190 was flying from Azerbaijan's capital Baku to the Russian city of Grozny in the North Caucasus on Wednesday when, for unknown reasons, it crashed on landing in Aktau, Kazakhstan, after flying east across the Caspian Sea.
The plane crashed about 2 miles from Aktau. Mobile phone footage circulating online shows the plane descending steeply before crashing into the ground in a fireball. Other footage showed part of the fuselage detached from the wings and the rest of the plane lying upside down in the grass.
National flags were flown at half-mast in Azerbaijan on Thursday, traffic came to a halt across the country at noon, and sirens sounded from ships and trains as the country observed a nationwide moment of silence.
Speaking at a press conference on Wednesday, Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev said it was too early to speculate on the cause of the crash, but said the weather had forced the plane to change its planned course.
“I was given information that the plane changed course between Baku and Grozny due to worsening weather conditions and headed to Aktau airport, where it crashed on approach,” he said.
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The Russian Civil Aviation Authority, Rosaviatsia, said that according to preliminary information, the pilots headed to Oktau after a collision with a bird, which led to an emergency situation on board.
As the official investigation into the crash began, theories abounded as to the possible cause, with some commentators suggesting that holes seen in the plane's tail may indicate it may have come under fire from Russian air defense systems that were deflecting a Ukrainian drone attack .
Ukrainian drones have previously attacked Grozny, the capital of the Russian republic of Chechnya, and other regions in the country's North Caucasus. Some Russian media have claimed that there was another drone attack in Chechnya on Wednesday, although it has not been officially confirmed.
Osprey Flight Solutions, an aviation security firm based in the UK, has warned its clients that the “Azerbaijan Airlines flight was likely shot down by a Russian military air defense system.” Osprey provides analysis of carriers still flying to Russia after Western airlines suspend flights war in Ukraine.
Osprey CEO Andrew Nicholson said the company had issued more than 200 warnings about drone attacks and air defense systems in Russia during the war.
“This incident is a stark reminder of why we do what we do,” Nicholson wrote online. “It is very painful to know that, despite our best efforts, a life was lost in a way that could have been avoided.”
Russian military expert Yuri Podalyak was quoted by Agence France-Presse as saying that the holes seen in the plane's wreckage were similar to those left by an “anti-aircraft missile system.” “Everything points to it,” he wrote.
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And Gerard Legafre, a former expert at France's BEA accident investigation agency, also said the wreckage was damaged by “a lot of shrapnel,” according to AFP.
He described it as “reminiscent” of Malaysia Airlines flight MH17, which was shot down by a surface-to-air missile by Russian-backed rebels over eastern Ukraine in 2014.
But when asked about claims that the plane was fired upon by air defenses, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters: “It would be wrong to speculate before the investigation reaches its verdict.”
Speaker of the Parliament of Kazakhstan, Mavlen Ashimbaev, also warned against jumping to conclusions based on pictures of plane fragments, calling accusations of air defense shooting unfounded and “unethical.”
Other officials in Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan also declined to comment on the possible cause of the crash, saying that remains to be determined by investigators.