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Roula Khalaf, Editor of the FT, selects her favorite stories for this weekly newsletter.
Hours after rejecting a US-led proposal to strike a 21-day truce with Hizbollah in September, Benjamin Netanyahu boasted that he was shifting power in the region for years to come. The Israeli prime minister had recently ordered the assassination of Hizbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah, indicating that Israel had turned its focus from the Gaza Strip to ramp up its offensive against the Lebanese rebels. As the year ends, the dynamics in the Middle East have undoubtedly changed for Israel.
The Israeli army has been hitting Hizbollah relentlessly and forced it into a cease-fire agreement that gave Israel the right to continue strikes in Lebanon. Iran appears to be at its most vulnerable in years. Its “resistance axis” of Iranian-backed militias, including Hizbollah and Hamas, looks like a paper tiger. Israeli bombers destroyed most of the Islamic Republic's air defenses in October – the biggest conventional attack on Iran in decades.
The Islamist regime suffered another devastating blow this month when Syrian rebels overthrew Bashar al-Assad, the dictator it supported during Syria's civil war. About 4,000 Iranians were expelled from the country as Iran lost another important country in the Middle East and an important land supply chain for Hizbollah, its most important proxy. Israel may not have had a direct hand in Assad's dramatic demise, but to strike Iranian targets in Syria, Hezbollahwhich also helped to support the regime, paved the way for the rebels to Damascus.
Since the failure of the intelligence of the attacks of Hamas on October 7, which killed 1,200 people and captured 250, the degree of superiority of the Israeli forces over its enemies has become clear. Netanyahu's political fortunes have regrouped. After the Hamas attack, many predicted the end of his reign in Israeli politics. However, he appears as stable as ever, his right-wing coalition strengthened by the addition of another party, his poll numbers returning to pre-October 7 levels.
Yet Israel's battlefield success has come at a heavy cost that will intensify in the coming years. No one should mourn the end of Assad's brutal regime, or the waning of the evil influence of Iran and its proxies. But Israel's military success will always be tainted by the immense suffering it has brought to millions of people in Gaza and Lebanon.
Israel is facing increasing accusations of committing acts of genocide in Gaza, including a case at the International Court of Justice, in clear reports by Amnesty and Human Rights Watch and among Arab countries, including Saudi Arabia, where Netanyahu has grown up. Not only the terrible number of deaths – more than 45,000, according to Palestinian officials – influence such accusations, but also the Israeli siege imposed on the 2.3mn-strong Gaza; restrictions on aid and water; and the destruction of local infrastructure that has left most of the region uninhabitable.
Issuing a warrant for Netanyahu's arrest, the International Court of Justice said there were “substantial reasons” to believe he was guilty of the “war crime of starvation as a means of warfare . . . and other inhuman acts”. Israel's war and siege is affecting not only Israel but also the US, which has allowed Netanyahu to act with impunity.
After destroying the military power of Hamas and regional threats to Israel, Netanyahu has no reason not to end the conflict and agree to a deal to release the remaining prisoners. But he and his right-wing allies instead seem intent on staying on top of the various frontiers and keeping Israel in a perpetual state of conflict. Ultimately, Israel's security can only be ensured through peace, and it has never been in a strong position to achieve this – if only Netanyahu can see it.