The tariff plans of US President Donald Trump is not a disadvantage – this is proof that you pay attention to the maze funhouse on the threat of Trump trade.
He is impressive Huge tariffs for Canada and Mexico, and then they delayedSo they are procedure March 4 They are notThen they If Again, but it turns out that he really talks about more targeted Tariffs later. And so on.
The reason why this is misleading is that Trump has made many tariff threats, like an endless geyser of economic threat.
He tends to combat these threats together, connecting them when they were asked about one; Then his helpers were left to clean the things that his white house did Tuesday And his secretary of trade did Wednesday.
So what does all this mean for Canada? Here are three key results.
First of all, there is no indication whether a huge tariff in the entire economy in the amount of 25 percent is coming on March 4 or ever.
Secondly, various threats can fight Canada in the coming weeks, including steel, aluminum and possibly other products.
Thirdly, this confusion can be intended, in the last period for the renegotiation of the Canada-Us-Myxic agreement. Creating uncertainty in international trade is Long -term Trump's policy, and now this is happening on steroids.
There are early signs that scared companies react exactly as Trump would like: Shifting production to the USA
“Create Chaos”, just like Gary Hufbauer, a ten -year veteran, a commercial observer in Washington, describes Trump's strategy.
“This is not a mistake (Trump's trade policy), as they say. This is the feature of Trump. And we will continue to see it over the next few years. “
In a poor attempt, to shed light at this chaos, here is what we know-and what not, about what Trump planned in trade.
In response to the reporter's question at a press conference with the French President Emmanuel Macron, US President Donald Trump said that the deadline for applying tariffs to Canada and Mexico is “according to schedule”, repeating his claim that the US was used “for many, many years”.
March 4: A great threat
For Canada, this is the great, the widest threat of Trump: the 25 -percent tariff for practically everything, with a smaller oil tariff.
If this tariff actually went ahead, Hufbauer estimates that he would quickly shave three percent of the Canadian economy, causing a heavy recession: “very painful,” he said.
But Trump stopped him many times.
It all started last year, when Trump complained about Fentanyl and migrants spilled across the border; He said that the tariffs would come on January 20, and then it was February 1, and then it was February 4, and now she was detained until March 4.
Howard Lutnick Secretary of Trade felt progress in Canada public and in private conversation, citing Many actions taken from the border.
Did his boss plow with tariffs next week? Forecasts differ.
DC WILLIAM REINSCH trade observer for many years provides another delay, or maybe another, because Trump maintains the threat as a lever.
“I think we will see the rolling postponement,” said Reinsch, a former US trade official and trade expert at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. “Let it reach the edge. Just like the last time. Then organize. “
Others, however, provide for some action next week.
Hufbauer predicts that Trump will introduce something on March 4 – though less than threatened: “Not at a rate of 25 percent. But at a lower pace. “
Dan Ujcza, an expert on Canada-Us, sees a wide range of possibilities and expects Trump to land somewhere between two extremes-completely without dropping tariffs, or imposing them without a final date.
“There are a number of options in the middle,” said Ujcza, a senior advisor at the Law Firm Ohio Thompson Hine, describing the possibilities as: another delay; A small tariff that grows; Or a large tariff with an expiration date.
March 12: metal tariffs
Trump is promising 25 percent of the steel and aluminum import tariffs. This can be a serious problem for Canada.
“Canada will be the main victim,” said Reinsch. Hufbauer claims that they are probably coming and Canada will probably be hit.
He said that this is not a trick like some other threats of Trump. He said that Trump was dead to control the production of some products back to the USA-in this steel and aluminum.
“Unfortunately” – added Hufbauer, predicting that these tariffs will cause unnecessary damage to the US economy.
But there is a reservation.
Ujcza said that it is not completely clear how far they will go down the habits in which we will get the customs or hit car parts? What about building materials that mostly use imported aluminum?
Ujcza said that he was the one who keeps him at night. He said he had heard progress in tariffs covering the entire economy-not for that. “The question is: what will be the scope?”
Perhaps, he said, Trump can delay the implementation. Who would push this problem to what will be a very busy spring.
April showers
You would practically need a full -time cartographer to map all commercial activities that Trump threatens after April 1.
It is then that the real meat of Trump's commercial policy hits the table.
On the first day of the Trump office demanded Reports of his office officials until April 1, studying trade deficits in the USA, unfair practices of other countries that deserve retaliation, and the potential income that the US could raise through tariffs. The penalties will come later, maybe even months later.
Trump looks at different types of tariffs – from a global minimum tariff to each international import, to more targeted retaliation (what he calls mutual tariffs).
Canada is one of the countries references In a separate executive ordinance on mutual tariffs, complaining about Canadian tax on digital services.
Lutnick even complains about the Canadian GST project, suggesting in Fox News interview that it could be an excuse for additional tariffs.
But that's not all.
“Wait, there are more,” said Democrat Ron Przednie, who read a list of Trump's tariff threats in speech in the Senate.
Trump is dangerous 25 percent of tariffs for car, semiconductor and pharmaceutical imports as early as April 2 and maybe lumbertoo.
Some of them would of course be brutal for Canada.
But here we are approaching Trump's game. At this point, Ujcza expects Trump to want to start the renegotiation of the Canada-Us-Myxic agreement, which in accordance with the law He must start next year, but Ujcza expects it to start this spring.
Trump will rule the threat of tariff as a lever.
We already have a general sense of Trump's wish list: greater access to the Canadian dairy market, changes to some digital RulesAnd he tightened trade Car – Although it is still not clear whether its main goal is Chinese car parts or all countries.
And if he does not get what he wants, he will threaten Canada and Mexico – with tariffs and withdrawal of the US from the continental trade agreement
“This Damocles sword always hangs over his head,” said Ujcz. “I don't think Trump's administration is very patient. The Udhoka Canada strategy consisting in exhaustion of the clock may not work this time. ”
So it is. Probably large tariffs next week, and maybe not; Probably smaller tariffs later; And very stormy spring, because Canada may, but it does not have to be in the process of choices.
Is everything clear now?