Analysts say that tariffs, geopolitical uncertainty and economic fears affect FX markets.
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The recessed perspectives of the US economy and expectations regarding further market variability cause changes in currency valuations – divided with market observers, into which currencies they perceive as safe companies.
The development of geopolitical from this month saw American tariffs to Canada, Mexico and China Come, President Donald Trump 'S. Reported arrest of military assistance to Ukraine, more softer economic data in the USA with the USA and European leaders obliged UP defense expenses.
Jane Foley, head of the FX strategy in Rabobank London, said on Tuesday CNBC via e -mail that she was expecting British pound and Japanese yen be the winners in the current environment.
“The fact that American data suggest that there is a modest trade surplus in Great Britain suggests that the latter is unlikely to be in the sight of Trump, and GBP will probably still grind higher compared to the euro,” she said. “To say this, it is a stretch to name a pound of a safe marina.”
Asset indicated After meeting with the British Prime Minister Keir Starmer last week, Great Britain may avoid becoming the goal of American tariffs.
Sterling traded USD $ 1,2712 at 10:19 in London on Tuesday, which means an increase of 0.1% compared to the US dollar, but fell by about 0.1% compared to the euro. According to LSEG data, from the beginning of the year the British currency gained 1.6% compared to Greenback.
British pound vs American dollar.
“Japan also has a strong hand in contacts with the USA,” said Foley CNBC. “Although Japan has a trade surplus from the USA, he is the largest treasurers owner outside the USA and is the largest supplier of FDI (direct foreign investment) to the USA (premiere of Shiger) IShiba already undertook to increase investment flows In the USA and the growing defense budget of Japan is almost all spent in the USA “
Foley also noted that the Japanese political environment favored Jena, which gained 5% compared to the green from the beginning of the year.
“As for the basics of Japan, and taking into account that the Bank of Japan is the only G10 central bank with a tightened prejudice, I expect that (Jen) will achieve well this year, which will probably strengthen its certificates as a safe haven,” she said.
David Roche, a strategist of a quantum strategy, agreed that the current conditions strengthened the long -term status of the Japanese currency as a protection against variability, which suggests that geopolitical instability in the west can strengthen him as a “new safe haven.”
In an interview with “Squawk Box Europe” at CNBC on Monday, Roche discussed the fall from the public confrontation of vice president JD Vance with the President of the Ukrainian Volodymyr Zelenskyy in the oval office last Friday.
Roche argued that Trump's administration policy may perceive green defronized as a safe FX market stop.
“The great loser is actually the USA, because no one will trust the American treaty again,” he said about the US with a retreat from supporting Ukraine. His comments appeared before the White House official the media said On Tuesday, the US detained all military assistance in Ukraine.
“You want to stay away from euro And have Jen, which is now a new safe haven because the US looks very dangerous. “
Kamal Sharma, the FX strategist in Bfa Global Research, took Roche another position on the euro and argued that the impact of Trump's tariffs may have a limited impact on currency markets.
“FX took over night ads largely in its step, although the tone in G10 FX is a bit defensive today, and (Swiss Frank) conducted profits compared to USD and even (Canadian dollar) recovering some initial losses,” he said in the comments e -Mail on Tuesday. “The high version of Beta G10 FX is under certain pressure, especially antipodean on Chinese proxy.”
“We used the term” tariff purgatory “to describe how the markets were in the alert of implementation from the beginning of the year,” added Sharma. “The ads were not completely surprising in the context of what was already said. Part of the narrative is now that from day to day they put the ball strongly in the EU court and is required to increase defense expenditure, and this helps European actions I (The ( euro) Through higher (binding) performance. “
However, Dominic Schanider, the head of the global FX and goods at UBS Global Wealth Management, argued against the argument of Frank Swiss about the development of the Atlantic.
Frank's “safer” appeal is decreasing when geopolitical fears are decreased, and investors can significantly move towards higher efficiency currencies, such as (Australian dollar) and (British pound), “he said.
“In our opinion, the total perspective of the return of Swiss Frank is not convincing and although she should trade sideways, and the euro for most of the year, Franc is under pressure from better breasts,” added Schanider.
Meanwhile, Christian Mueller-Glissmann, head of the Asset Allocation Research in Goldman Sachs, said on Monday “Street Signs Europe” CNBC that he is still expecting that the dollar will increase. From the beginning of the year, Dollar index – which measures the American currency against the basket of the main rivals – he dropped 2%, after 7% in 2024.
“We think there is still up … (USA) dollar,” said Mueller-Glissmann. “I know that the dollar is now becoming a different story … because the rest of the world looks better. But if you want to look at Safe Haven FX, one currency that has not done anything for the last nine months is the Swiss French – our team looked on the influence of Tariffs on Switzerland, and it can be lower than what you get for the EU or many other countries. “