After nine hours of talks in Dżudda, Saudi Arabia, officials appeared to announce it Ukraine agreed to the US proposal with a temporary 30-day weapon suspension along the vast line of the first 1200 kilometers.
He was hailed as a step towards the room, and a violent phrase in covering relations between Washington and Kijiv, but making Russia agree to a contract, while his army keeps the battle of the battle, will be a challenge.
Making him a durable room is another one that, according to experts, will prove to be extremely difficult and can cover thousands of peace forces and monitors.
“To disappoint the weapon, the parties will have to exclude a wide range of technical details,” said Walter Kemp, a senior strategy advisor at Geneva Center for Security Policy.
“But the temporary cessation of hostilities may open the way to negotiate to end the war.”
As an agreement was announced between the USA and Ukraine, Washington confirmed that he also raised a suspension of military assistance and division of interview for Ukraine. It meant a violent shift from just a week ago, when Now a notorious confrontation in the White House Between the US President Donald Trump and the President of the Ukrainian Volodymyr Zelensky, he raised a long -term alliance of both countries.
The Trump administration claims that Ukraine has agreed to a 30-day temporary suspension of weapons with Russia after a series of high rates in Saudi Arabia. But Russia still has to agree.
Much depends on Russia's response
But the path to secure the truce remains fragile, full and powered by a political lever.
Kemp claims that Washington's pressure will have to be exerted on Moscow to force Russian President Vladimir Putin to be agreed.
If he does, it is a challenge to implement the suspension of the weapon and make it the last.
If not, experts say that the US can focus on smaller contracts on “building trust” to build trust between the two sides.
“I think that it is more realistic to have some deester than a suspension of weapons,” said Kemp. “It doesn't have to be that there is a complete suspension of the weapon,” he said. “You can talk and shoot at the same time.”
Ukraine previously suggested a partial suspension of weapons that would include stopping maritime and air attacks, but American officials pressed the cessation of hostilities along the entire front line.
While the officials talked shortly after the talks, they did not develop how the suspension of the weapon, even temporary, would be enforced and who would be responsible for monitoring it, and whether thousands of peace forces would have to be distributed along the front line, which flows through the very extracted battlefields.
Kemp, who came from Canada, but is currently based in Vienna in Austria, was part of a group of peaceful experts and mediation, who regularly meet in Geneva since 2022, in order to strategy of logistics around a potential agreement on the suspension of weapons and the location of the grounds needed for such a contract.
“The challenge is to actually get to trifles of what the suspension of weapons means, as it works, and how it is implemented,” said Kemp.
“There is no point in having a weapon suspension, which was then broken the next day”
Report in detail how you can enforce a weapon suspension
Unlike current negotiations, which often took place in public, a group of security experts met behind closed doors and produced detailed paper The first time made available last month at a meeting in Switzerland, in which foreign policy experts from the USA, Russia and Ukraine participated. Then it was published online and detailed possibilities of monitoring and enforcing weapons suspension.
The report suggested establishing a 10-15-kilometer buffer zone in which Ukraine and Russia would not be able to set up soldiers or weapons, and it was forbidden to use drones.
He stated that demining would be crucial, so monitors and peaceful can operate safely in the buffer zone.
While both Great Britain and France have committed themselves to the distribution of peace forces, Russia said it will not agree To strength from NATO countries on Earth in Ukraine.
US President Donald Trump said on Monday that Russian President Vladimir Putin accepts the idea of sending rooms to Ukraine under a weapon suspension agreement, and French President Emmanuel Macron said that Europe is ready to help.
Kemp claims that it may be necessary to include peace forces from the global South, from countries such as India or Nepal.
Ukrainian president Volodomyr Zelenskyy said earlier 200,000 room He would have to be on earth to enforce a ceasefire, but the report called this number “unlikely and dangerous”.
The report stated that up to 50,000 armed peacekeeping forces would seem unreal, and suggested that an option may be a peace mission of 10,000 members of the army, as well as several thousand police officers and civil monitors
“You can use satellite photos, acoustic sensors and other things to break away from tens of thousands of people in this line,” said Kemp.
After the parts of Donetsk and Luhansk in 2014, the organization of security and cooperation in Europe (OSCE), supported by Russian separatists, began to monitor the control line separating two pages.
However, Kemp said that one of the reasons he did not work was that there were no accounting means: if the ceasefire was violated, which was many times, the monitors could only register activities in the report.
In addition to liability, experts claim that it is necessary for both parties to believe that the contract could be “sold” to citizens without high political costs.
The appetite for a truce has changed
For most of the war, there was very little public pressure on the suspension of weapons.
On the contrary, Charles Kupchan, an older employee of the Council for Foreign Relations and Professor of International Affairs at the University of Georgetown, said that he had received a discot for suggesting that there should be a contract.
“A general reaction, when I first began to call for a diplomatic ending of the war in Ukraine, whether I was hit by a lot of bricks from many people I knew and many people I did not know,” said Kupchan, who talked to CBC News from Washington.
The Kiev and his supporters in the West hoped that Ukrainian forces would regain their occupied territories and make Moscow weakened.
Russia – which for most of the war maintained the momentum on the battlefield, and was usually managed to manage its destroyed economy by The resulting sanctions around the world – He said many times that he was ready for negotiations, but he never agreed to any concessions.
In the early months of the Russian full -scale invasion A peace agreement project This was partly prepared in Istanbul in April 2022, but it developed and was abandoned.
“Last year in Qatar, it was also met for Russians and Ukrainians to meet in Qatar to talk about the implementation of this kind of partial suspension of weapons, but it never happened,” said Kupchan.
Now, After the introduction of the Trump administration and the weariness of the war, which has a basis for over three years, the appetite for a truce changed.
But if Russia, who refused to withdraw its soldiers and did not signal, is ready to make concessions, rejects the contract, then Kupchan claims that negotiators must try to press on small contracts, like no attacks on energy places or civil infrastructure.
“I guess that we will simply have to test the water,” said Kupchan.
“You can build a level of confidence on both sides before you try to say: ok, it's done. It is quiet on the line. “