The Palm Jumeirah in Dubai, Dubai, United Arab Emirates
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Global trade war triggered by US President Donald Trump It does not show signs of restrictions, with Tat-Tat tariffs, driving the main economies, stock markets and darkening of growth prospects.
Disne economies – North America, European Union and China – encounter a very uncertain future. But for the Middle East, which has been saved by additional fees so far, there are still reasons to worry – as well as the possibility of using.
The direct impact on the tariffs, like American fees on the import of steel and aluminum, have only the minimum impact on the Middle East, says economists. For example, the bay region included About 16% of American aluminum imports in 2024.Directed by the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain, the standard economist of Mena, Carla Slim, said CNBC. Analysts say that they can affect these sectors, the hit will be small.
But a blow of growth from the trade war will probably hurt the price of oil, the basics of the region's economy. There are also immediate costs of countries whose currencies are set for a dollar, such as Saudi Arabia, ZAA, Qatar, Oman and Bahrain.
Oil, dollars and debt
. American dollar sells From the beginning of the year, increasing imports for countries with dollar dowels more expensive – a challenge for a very dependent region on goods from abroad.
Trade tariffs implemented by the US usually strengthen the green place over time – if this happens, oil becomes more expensive, because the goods are trading in dollars. This would give the initial increase in oil exporting in the Middle East.
But bad news can be ahead when the demand for oil slows down due to weakened global trade and shipping.
Oil drilling salvation stands on one of the grave islands in the oil field at sea, served by Saudi Arabia Arabia, in Manifa, Saudi Arabia, on Wednesday, October 3, 2018.
Simon Dawson Bloomberg Getty images
“Macro perspectives for the Mena (Middle East and North Africa) should be indirectly in burdening global tariff uncertainty through oil prices, to the extent that the macro tariff and uncertainty will still be continuous to pull Brent oil prices“Slim said CNBC.
However, from the shock of oil prices in 2014, many of these economies have implemented structural reforms and diversification programs to reduce their dependence on oil income.
“In our opinion, strengthening resistance to domestic demand is the best lever to vaccinate local economies from global external shocks,” said Slim.
Despite the diversification, oil “is still the largest single share of income,” said Edward Bell, acting as the chief economist at Bank Emirates NBD based in Dubai.
“In the case of an economy such as ZAA, which is highly open to trade and acts as a global trade facilitator through broadly extensive infrastructure and logistics connections, a decrease in global trade will also be an externally imposed wind to growth,” noted Bell.
The most sensitive
The stronger greenback also means that the debt denominated in dollars is more expensive to use. For Lebanon, Jordan and Egypt, which have a particularly high level of external debt, this is a serious problem and can cause acute economic pain.
According to James Swanston, senior economist Emerging Emerging Economist in London with the headquarters of capital economics based in London Economics capital economics based in London's economics of capital economics capital with the headquarters of the Economics Capital Economic Economics Jordan, Jordan is the most sensitive country in the region for tariff wars due to the high export dependence on the USA. Almost 25% of Jordan exports – mainly textiles and jewelry – will go to American markets.
“Jordan's economy is most exposed to potential tariffs,” said Swanston CNBC.
US President Donald Trump speaks during a meeting with King Jordan Abdullah II bin al-Hussein (L) at the Oval White House office on February 11, 2025 in Washington.
Andrew Harnik Getty images
But the country can find some relief in its diplomatic connections with Washington-“Swanston noticed that” the renunciation was secured in relation to foreign help after the suspension of USAID “due to the strategic importance of Jordan in US foreign policy. “This may suggest that Jordan can easily negotiate tariff effects.”
New trade corridors?
One significant and positive change in the Mena region caused by tariffs is the emphasis on more geographically improved trade corridors.
“We think that for a mena it is an impulse to rapid growth commercial corridors, such as the GCC-Asia commercial corridor, which has experienced a 15% long-term growth and can take advantage of the majority,” said Slim Standard Chartered.
He sees the growing commercial volumes initiating the parallel increase in financial and investment flows between the states of the Persian Gulf, and especially in Asia, “because Asian enterprises have established presence in the Middle East or expand existing companies, adding an impulse to organic growth, which we have observed from that time (China) belt and road initiative.”