The boundaries of the US President Donald Trump about the extremely personalized, warrior diplomacy have never been more visible than in the case of irrelevant results this week covering the two most deadly conflicts in the world.
In Gaza, the army of Israel The fragile weapon suspension shattered on Tuesday Performing the largest number of deaths in one day Palestinians since the war in October 2023.
And after Trump's telephone conversation with Vladimir Putin in Ukraine, every hope that the Russian President was prepared to go back or a significant limitation of his ongoing three -year attack on the country, also turned out to be largely illusory.
Both results were easily predictable, say veterans diplomats, taking into account almost unanimous focus on quick winnings at the expense of more difficult work of stubborn diplomacy, which results in lasting benefits.
“He imposes unreal schedules, and also imposes conditions that will not be observed,” said Louise Blais, a longtime Canadian diplomat and former Canadian ambassador to the UN.
“He is a kind of” immediate president of satisfaction ” – there is no patience to do a job required by diplomacy,” said CBC News.
In their public statements, the Trump's foreign policy team insisted that it be a week of “winnings” for the administration-that the call of Putin-Trump would lead to a greater number of peace conversations between the USA and Russia in Saudi Arabia at the weekend, and the President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelensky also agreed to tear to strikes for energy purposes.
Excessively translucent
But Blais claims that Trump's actions follow the known pattern of excessive clearance and insufficient delivery.
“You don't bring events such as Ukraine and Russian Federation or Hamas and (Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin) Netanyahu day by day. It just doesn't happen,” said Blais.
And yet it seemed exactly what Trump tried to do with his aggressive intimidation and the public Blading of Zelenskyy on the fact that in February in February based on an oval meeting.
Asset inspected The leader of Ukraine and forced him to make concessions before negotiating with Putin.
In case of a challenge at the beginning of this week that his efforts do not bring results, Trump's officials resorted to hyperboli.
“Trump is a natural leader,” said his special envoy in the Middle East Steve Witkoff, who also took the war in Ukraine.
“I can't exceed how convincing he was in the conversation (with Putin)”, Witkoff fed with Fox News. “There is no other human being like him.”
Asset He spoke many times He believes that Putin wants to end the war he began, despite the fact that American intelligence agencies together with the leaders of virtually every European country do not agree.
The Kremlin publicly insisted on the maximalistic conditions for the suspension of weapons that would extinguish Ukrainian sovereignty, the centenary of its military abilities and officially transferring huge votees to Russia to Russia, including areas where Putin's troops were unable to take care of.
US President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin claim that they agreed to an immediate, 30-day suspension of weapons for energy and infrastructure in Russia in the war with Ukraine, after a long telephone conversation.
Recently, Trump seemed more interested in contacting Putin than Netanyahu in Israel.
When Israeli combat aircraft fell into gaza targets this week, The White House had little to say, In addition, Trump fully supports Israel and its renovated military activities.
Unlike the original suspension of weapons in January, this time Trump and his envoy Witkoff apparently did not resist the Israeli leader to end the war or insist that Netanyahu should hold Witkoff forced Netanyahu to accept.
Blais, former Ambassador of Canada, says that Netanyahu probably predicted – correctly – that Trump has withdrawn or lost interest in finding the negotiated settlement in the case of Gaza after signing the first suspension of the weapon.
“This is probably one of the reasons why (Trump) was so ineffective is that the conflict party knows that there is no resistance, the force of remaining or focusing on something that is not going well,” Blais said.
Other analysts say that Trump's strength act can be useful for breaking impassions or restarting stagnation, but the benefits of such bravado shows can be fleeting.
“The theory of a madman”
“You see some merits in the so-called” madman's theory “-the fact that you do not know what he intends to do and he is very unpredictable,” said Julie Norman, who teaches international relations at the University College London.
AND Last article on foreign matters The defined “madman theory” as a leader who, acting in a very unstable way, believes that they can scare opponents to make concessions.
ON More than once Trump suggested that his opponents are afraid of him because they cannot predict what he would do next.
The article of foreign affairs, however, emphasizes the inseparable contradiction in this approach:
“Leaders with a reputation of unpredictability – or who encourage them to see that they can do almost anything, regardless of consequences – often fight for reliable guarantees.”
And although this style of leadership can be popular among dictators and strongmen, the article notices, rarely works.
“The former Russian leader Nikita Khrushchev threatened to use nuclear weapons against the West and often seemed to lose control over his emotions before Western leaders – screaming, gesturing and becoming red on the face – but ultimately he was unable to force the United States to withdraw.”
In his first term, as President Trump, he commemorated the same highly personalized approach with the irregular dictator of North Korea Kim Jong Un to encourage him to resign from the arsenal of the nuclear weapon of his country.
Three meetings later – including one in the demilitarized zone between North and South Korea – Trump ended diplomatic courtesy after Kim did not want to sign a contract to do what Trump wanted.
Norman claims that Trump's style seems particularly improperly placed in solving the two current wars he met with him.
“An attempt to solve these very complex, very long-lasting, very complex conflicts that require precision, require time and attention to detail and nuance and everything with which Trump has not yet worried,” said Norman CBC News.
Trump's next steps are, which is not surprising, difficult to predict.
The President of the United States seems to intend to restore business, political and economic ties with Russia, regardless of the progress of the end of the war in Ukraine.
And in the Middle East Witkoff and others still act as mediators, trying to end resumed attacks on gauze, despite the fact that the long -term vision of Trump consisting in the end of the conflict has not yet been clearly expressed.
Although he previously suggested that Palestinians should be evicted from Gaza, and the territory turned into a gigantic development of real estate, Trump has since returned part of what he said.
What seems to be sure, says Norman, an analyst of international relations, is that when Trump's praise turns out to be significantly exceeding what he provides, it will be the fault of someone else.
“It is very difficult to be a dealer, peace, negotiator or diplomat, when (being a bang) is your international reputation of the individual – as well as a state.”