You cannot legally put money into Luigi Mangione's fate in the United States. Kalshi, one of the only legal prediction markets. Withdraw all bets related to the assassination. UnitedHealthcare In the middle of December It cited concerns from federal regulators.
From sports betting to skins Counter-Strike Gambling is having a “moment” in America. Bettors who want to bet on something besides the outcome of a football game are using prediction markets. These are sites where they can bet on the outcome of events with binary outcomes. Sites like Polymarket, PredicIt and Kalshi. Explosion of popularity In the past year
Popular bets according to website trends along with news In the last few months of the election Bettors have made big bets on Trump, Kamala and the future of liberal western democracies after Luigi Mangione was accused of murdering UnitedHealthcare CEO Brian Thompson. On the streets of Manhattan His fate became the enchanted object of the prediction market.
unless those markets are monitored by US regulators. The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) is responsible for regulating prediction markets such as Kalshi and PredictIt. On December 13, all bets related to Magione disappeared from the website. According to a report by BloombergKalshi removed Mangione-related bets from the website after receiving “Alert from…regulators,” the CFTC wrote, “prohibiting futures trading linked to crime. including assassination terrorism and war if the agency decides that the so-called event contract is against the public interest.”
In Polymarket, all assassination-related bets are open: “Will Luigi Mangione fire his lawyer before 2025?” Polymarket has odds of only 1 percent– “Will it be confirmed that Luigi Mangione uses psychedelics?” user Give it a 43 percent chance.– “Luigi Mangione inspired by rejected claims?” On December 10, Polymarket had a 75 percent chance of this, but it was. reduced to approximately 25 percent–
None of the Mangione-related bets were high volume. For more than $400,000, “Is Luigi Mangione's YouTube Channel Real?” has the highest quantity– but viral YouTube channels have been around for a long time. It was debunked that it was fake.– Questions about his motivation were at $183,000, but all other markets failed to rise above $100,000. Prediction markets use a percentage of bets and it is likely that Kalshi and PredictIt did not lose much money. from losing bets related to the assassination
In Polymarket, major political questions and sports betting bring in more cash. The fate of South Korean President Yun Suk Yeol is Value 1 million US dollarsGerman parliamentary elections Value 4 million US dollarsAnd Biden's possible pardon from Sam Bankman-Fried is worth it. Nearly $3 million– People have spent at Kalshi Nearly 7 million USD Predict which songs will top the US pop charts on Spotify Mangione isn't a hot market.
The CFTC's move to remove Mangione-related bets from Kalshi is the latest in a battle with the prediction site. There have been several attempts to regulate the types of bets people can place on sites such as Kalshi and PredictIt, and it was only earlier this year that try to stop The website doesn't let people bet on elections, sports, and ceremonies like the Oscars. But it is the United States Court of Appeals. Overthrow the decision In October, which coincides with the election.
In Polymarket, bets flow freely. But leadership hasn't gone down well with regulators either. In November, the FBI Breaking into a New York apartment Or Shayne Coplan, CEO of Polymarket.