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Senior members of the UK cabinet warned prime minister Tony Blair in 2004 that free movement to new EU member states, including Poland, could put huge pressure on the benefits and housing system, newly released documents show.
The decision to allow migrants from 10 countries across eastern and central Europe, including Hungary and the Czech Republic, to work in the UK with fewer borders led to a sharp increase in migrants.
In 2005, the year after the decision, EU migration from the UK to the UK reached 96,000 people, according to the Office for National Statistics, a sharp increase from 15,000 in 2003.
During the Brexit referendum in 2016, this operation helped to do so migration a political issue that is widely contested.
Jack Straw, former foreign secretary, and John Prescott, deputy prime minister, raised important concerns before the decision, files released by the Cabinet Office show.
“We could face a very difficult situation if we do the wrong thing,” Straw warned Blair in a letter dated February 10, 2004.
He called on the prime minister to consider delaying the introduction of the policy, saying this would allow Britain to “monitor the movement” of migrants to other countries before a decision is made on implementation.
While the UK, Ireland and Sweden allowed free movement immediately in May 2004 with minimal restrictions, many others, including France and Germany, chose to delay full access to labor markets, citing fears of mass migration. States had the power to impose restrictions until May 1, 2011.
The UK's decision is, in part, based on Home Office estimates that only 5,000-13,000 migrants would arrive each year from new EU members. However, this proved to be a huge understatement.
Net annual migration from EU member states hit 142,000 in 2014, according to ONS estimates at the time, sparking debate about Britain's EU membership.
On February 16, 2004, Prescott wrote to Blair, formally urging him to delay. As the deputy prime minister mentioned concerns about housing, migrants are expected to enter London and the south-east to look for work, and the “possible result” is “overcrowding in poor areas” due to the inability to afford rent.
Straw told the Financial Times: “As events have shown, we're getting it wrong.”
“If we had good evidence about the impact of our lifting restrictions on immigration to the UK, I am clear that we would not agree to lift it,” he added.
“Keeping the restrictions would have made some difference . . . 2016 survey results; whether it's enough to swing it, it's impossible to say,” he said.
Previously unseen documents released by the National Archives show that Blair took these concerns into account, questioning officials about whether the original “permit to work” system was working. However, he ultimately decided against such a rule.
A July 2 briefing document for Blair showed that 9,000 workers had signed up to work in the UK in the two months after May 1, with 50,000-60,000 workers likely to arrive in the first year.
Officials warned of an “elephant trap” in the media that reported the figures.
Countering accusations that the arrivals will lead to an increase in benefits claims, Blair told officials to “get into our media” reports that Poles are choosing to work illegally in Germany, rather than legally in the UK.
He asked councilors to ensure they had created “the toughest package of benefits possible” to counter potential excessive claims for new EU migrants.
Blair declined to comment.