Foreign currencies are advertised in the Times Square window, one of the most important tourist attractions in New York and the country, March 28, 2025 in New York.
Spencer Platt Getty images
Implementation of US President Donald Trump Tariff regime The strategists said CNBC, it is suppressing moods towards the dollar and makes investors to look for their currency transactions (FX) elsewhere.
The dollar indicator, which measures the Greenback value in relation to the basket of main rivals, has not changed much on Wednesday morning. The US currency began a steady increase at the end of 2024 He reached the peak in mid -January – However, the dollar indicator has constantly increased some of these profits in recent weeks.
The dollar was historically perceived as a safe trant resource for investors, taking into account its status as Reserve currency in the world and domination in international loans, payments and transactions. When the dollar strengthens, exports in the US becomes more expensive and import becomes cheaper. Greenback value can also influence Global monetary policy, capital flows and corporate earnings.
“Positioning of currency traders is changing into a dollar and is becoming more and more stubborn in the field of main currencies of American trading partners, because the United States is preparing to start an international trade war,” said Joseph Brusuulas, chief economist at RSM USA, in a research note, in a research note Published Monday.
Euro is expected to grow
Brusualas pointed to transactions in euro as a signal of “erosion of trust in the dollar”.
“From the end of October to the first week of March, most of the euro positioning was a long dollar,” he said in Monday's note. “But for three weeks net positioning has been long euro.”
Jordan Rochester, FCC strategy director and executive director at the EMEA shoulder at Mizuho Bank, told CNBC that he kept “down and then the view” of the euro against the dollar. He sees that the euro drops to 1.06 to USD 1.07 before it rises to USD 1.12 or more until the end of the year.
“I expect this market to value” maximum pain “when we know the details of the tariffs,” said We -mail, arguing that it was “the possibility of taking the other party.”
“Tariffs (are) unlikely to deteriorate at full price and () EU and others (probably) will answer … their own retaliation tariffs that will lead to recovery,” he said.
Athanasios Vamvakidis, global boss and managing director of the G10 FX strategy at Bank of America, told CNBC that he saw a dollar defect, despite the expecting of tariffs that will have an immediate positive effect on green.
“In the case of the dollar we were and we are still bears for the whole year,” he said on the phone. “We believe that the market already values selective tariffs, but will receive tariffs around the world.”
CNBC said that the dollar could accumulate this week after the tariff enters into force, but he noticed that “it would most likely be an opportunity to sell.”
“In addition to the short period, there are two channels that should lead to the weakness of the dollar,” explained Vamvakidis. “First of all, when you have the United States against the rest of the world in the script of the trade war, then the US will eventually suffer more, because … when you compare it with the rest of the world, the rest of the world is greater. Secondly, the tariffs suggest stagflation risk – and now the market is very concerned about such a risk.”
Like Brusualas and Rochester, he predicted that the euro would ultimately be strengthened by Trump's trade war. While the United States is fighting for a policy mixture, which will probably be negative because of its currency, Europe focuses on “growing -friendly politicians,” said Vamvakidis.
“Germany proclaiming a huge fiscal stimulus, Europe announces huge defense expenses, plans for structural reforms that focused on increases and competitiveness,” he said. “So far these are plans, but we have not (we have) such plans earlier, but they come from Germany, an economy with the weakest increase in the euro area and the largest economy in the euro area and the most beautiful fiscal policy in the euro area, it is really a game changer.”
Vamvakidis said that his team sees that the euro will reach USD 1.15 this year and USD 1.20 in 2026.
Sterling bulls
Bank of America's Vamvakidis also argued British pound He has a growth potential when the Trump's Tariff regime is involved, noting that the US President targeted tariff threats in the EU When suggesting this Great Britain can be saved.
“In April in April there is positive seasonality for Sterling,” he said. “So in a short period we should see how Sterling is doing relatively well. In the whole year, as a whole, we also like sterling against the dollar. Compared to the euro, it depends on the implementation of EU reforms.”
In the note at the end of March, analysts from Maybank up changed their forecasts regarding the British pound, saying that they see that Sterling went to USD 1.26 by the end of the year, before it increased to USD 1.31 at the beginning of 2026. In Wednesday morning the British currency was sold around USD 1.29.
“We … we become more stubborn with GBP thanks to plans to increase defense expenditure, maintain fiscal discipline and relieve staglation risk,” they said. “We believe that GBP will be more resistant based on the fact that the United Kingdom as a service -oriented economy is less likely that this is influenced by Trump's commercial policy. As a close to the US ally, it will probably also be saved from the significant activities of Trump administration. This is despite the external environment that remains very uncertain and difficult.”
Australia, New Zealand currencies can be increased
Maybank analysts also provided for growth for New Zealand dollargiving currency a goal 0.58 USD in relation to Zielona by the end of 2024 – an increase of 2.1% compared to the current levels.
“For NZDUSD, a rounded bottom was created, which announces further recovery,” said Maybank analysts, adding that the currency prospects remained positive when New Zealand's economy returned and the rate of monetary alleviation will probably slow down.
“Both Australia And New Zealand also has stronger balance sheets than most other Western countries – in particular much lower debt indicators for GDP “, Alex King, former FX salesman and founder of the Personal Personal Platform finance platform Generations moneyHe said e -Mail.
“This means that they have much more head for their own potential measures of stimuli and (this) another factor that makes them both attractive places for investors, which helps strengthen their currency.”
He added that the economies of both countries were “much less related to the narrative of the trade war.”
“To combat the tariff effect, China is looking for stimuli means to increase their own economy, which is seen as positive for the economics of Australia and New Zealand, both of which tend to conduct commercial surpluses with China,” said King CNBC.