Analysts say that the uncertainty of the upcoming American tariffs was considering in global markets-but the very expected Wednesday announcement of President Donald Trump may not end the confusion.
Trump is expected to throw many unknowns in the address on Wednesday at 16:00 et (21:00 BST), including exactly countries AND sectors This will affect When the funds come into forceHow high they will be or how they will be calculated and whether there will be any significant exclusions.
Investors tried to analyze rhetoric from reality as part of the presidential speech. Global supplies suffered the worst month for a year and a half in March, as MSCI World index. Europe Stoxx 600 It dropped by 4.18%, while the American S&P 500 dropped by 5.75%. Asia-Pacific was a bit more resistant, though China CSI 300 0.07%was immersed.
Zoe Gillespie, Chartered Wealth Manager in RBC Brewin Dolphin, said that Wednesday's announcement is “unlikely” containing full details – and there would still be a lack of clarity in relation to the perspective.
“The danger is actually what will happen after the announcement, regardless of whether we see the European Union returning with certain retaliation tariffs, and in fact a kind of perspective,” CNBC “Squawk Box Europe” said on Wednesday.
“There may still be greater uncertainty and (questions), whether it becomes a bit like an inflationary story, more rooted in the long run. And I think that the danger is that we do not have a lot of clarity for a long time and influence on growth, and if we begin to achieve some negative attitude, it may delay any real” these are the peak signals. “
“River Day”?
While Trump called “the Liberation Day” on April 2, “Carnage Day” could be a better description, said on Tuesday Ozan Ozkural, the managing founder at Tanto Capital Partners.
“It's just a classic shock of Trump and admiration, trying to get counterparts for the negotiations table to get a better offer for the United States,” he said.
“The way he does it, and the fact that there is a continuous series of messages, which is sometimes contradictory, makes it very difficult to quote every resource.”
“If you look at the markets of goods, it's crazy because you speak on the one hand Secondary sanctions for Venezuela crude oilIN potentially Russia-Ukraine agreementwhich can restore Russian raw raw on the market, which is a completely different game, and now potential secondary sanctions for Russian oils. At the moment it is very difficult to value anything, so sometimes we take it from day to day and hour after hour – said Ozkural.
He added that he was still established in the USA, exceeding Europe in a long -term perspective, despite the more difficult start at 2025 in the markets. While Europe will use the Taild wind, including regional obligations to murder and Huge new defense, infrastructure and climate fundHe argued that the continent would still suffer from an innovative gap.
Gillespie RBC Brewer Dolphin also said that the wealth manager saw the US finally surpassed, even if he recently cut his allocation in the USA.
“Due to the wide nature of the US and the quality of companies, it is difficult to look elsewhere, in the long run and avoid the US,” she said, citing the influence of artificial intelligence.
However, further uncertainty clinging to almost medium-term prospects for investors include what tariffs will affect the US growth, inflation and path of interest rates, he continued Gillespie-what in a short period of time can encourage investors to look at more-directed companies in the country, avoiding global supply chains.
However, Arnaud Girod, head of the economics strategy and cross activities in Kepler Cheuvreux, said that Wednesday could mean “peak uncertainty” for markets.
He also noted that the US had recorded a huge withdrawal in the first quarter, registering one of the greatest achievements in Europe.
“I hope that today there is a sense of moderation, we will see. Maybe it's too naive, after all we saw from Trump,” said CNBC “Street Signs Europe”.
“Certainly, the analysts have divided many numbers, modeling every type of script. So I hope that tonight is the worst, it is the peak of uncertainty, and from there there will be negotiations, discussions and I hope that the impact will be slightly less than the worst case … and I hope that it can help American markets to recover.”