The Centre's fiscal deficit was 52.5% of the full-year target between April and November 2024, while capital expenditure was 46.2% of the budget estimate of Rs 11.1 crore. While the data center's financial performance, released on Tuesday, is expected to improve, there are concerns that the capex target for FY25 may be missed.
According to official data, the Centre's fiscal deficit stood at Rs 8.5 crore or 52.5% of the budget target of Rs 16.13 crore by the end of November 2024. This is 6.6% lower than the fiscal deficit of Rs 9.1 million recorded in November 2023.
The Centre's total receipts between April and November 2024 were Rs 18.94 crore, which is 59.1% of the budget estimates for the financial year. Of this tax revenue (mid to net) was Rs 14.43 crore and non-tax revenue was Rs 4.27 crore during the same period. Non-debt capital receipts between April and November this financial year stood at Rs 23,953 crore.
The total expenditure incurred by the Center was Rs 27.41 crore which is 56.9% of BE. Of this, Rs 22.27 crore was revenue expenditure and Rs 5.13 lakh was capital expenditure.
ICRA's Chief Economist and Head – Research and Outreach Aditi Nair noted that capital expenditure showed a healthy 21% expansion, albeit on a moderate basis. However, the centre's capex is expected to expand by 65% year-on-year from December 2024 to March 2025 or a monthly run rate of Rs. 1.5 million to meet the FY2025 BE, which looks increasingly daunting, she said. Rs. 11.1 crore for FY 2025 will be missed by a margin of at least Rs 1 crore to Rs 1.5 crore,” she added.
The anticipated miss to the capex target is expected to cover any shortfall due to the impact of recent supplementary demand for investment and taxes as well as grants. Accordingly, ICRA expects fiscal deficit to trail mildly in FY2025 BE. 16.1 million or 4.9% of the gross domestic product.