Hopes for nuclear conversations in Iran, hardened by threats and mixed messages

While Iran and the United States are preparing to hold a second round of high -bet nuclear conversations in Rome, hopes for de -escalation are tempered by increasing military threats and mixed messages.

US President Donald Trump reminds Tehran almost every day of his capabilities: a deal or war.

Earlier, he said that Israel would lead a military reaction if the conversations fail.

On Wednesday, The New York Times announced that Trump had “waved” an Israeli plan for strikes of Iranian nuclear sites next month.

“I wouldn't say he waves.

“I think Iran has a chance to have a great country and live happily without death … This is my first option. If there is a second option, I think it would be very bad for Iran.”

After both sides described the first round of negotiations in Oman last weekend as a constructive, Trump said he would “decide on Iran very quickly.”

In 2018, Trump removed the United States from an agreement for 2015, which saw Iran restrict its nuclear activities and allow inspections by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) to replace the sanctions.

He said he had done too little to stop Iran's potential path to a nuclear weapon and restore US sanctions as part of the Maximum Pressure campaign to force Iran to negotiate a new deal.

However, Iran refuses and increasingly violated the restrictions on revenge. He has now stocking up a high enough uranium to make a few bombs if he decides to do it – something he says he will never do.

It seems that the threat of hostilities has played a role in returning Iran to the negotiating table. Still, he insists that this is not the reason.

Supreme Leader Ayatola Ali Hamenei's website said Iran has agreed to speak only because the US restricts its demands strictly to nuclear issues – not from fear of us and Israeli strikes.

However, achieving a deal remains far from secure.

Trump's special envoy to the Middle East Steve Vikof, who heads the negotiating team in the United States, publishes on Tuesday: “Every final agreement must put a frame for peace, stability and prosperity in the Middle East – which means that Iran must stop and eliminate its nuclear enrichment program.”

He came only a day after he offered in an interview with Fox News that Iran would be allowed to continue to enrich Uranus.

“They do not need to enrich the past 3.67%,” he said, citing a limit set by the 2015 nuclear deal.

“This will be a lot to check the enrichment program and then ultimately check for a weapon.”

Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Aragchi, head of the Iranian delegation, replied, noting that the “controversial statements” of Vikoff and stressed that “the real positions will be clear at the negotiating table.”

“We are ready to build confidence about possible concerns about the enrichment of Iran, but the principle of enrichment is not a contracting,” he said.

This Saturday, negotiations in Rome come against the backdrop of a storm of diplomatic activity.

Saudi Arabia's Defense Minister, Prince Halid Bin Salman, visited Tehran on Thursday, handing over a personal message from his father King Salman to Ayatola Hamenei. He also met with the President of Iran, Masud Pzeshkiyan.

Iran warned that any US military action would be met with revenge against US bases in the region – many hosts Iran's Arab neighbors.

At the same time, Aragchi visited Moscow and handed a letter from Hamenei to Russian President Vladimir Putin.

Iran and Russia have strengthened their military ties since the beginning of the war in Ukraine, with Tehran accused the delivery of drones to support Moscow's military efforts.

The Russian parliament ratified a 20-year strategic partnership between Iran and Russia 10 days ago. However, the deal does not include a mutual defense clause.

Meae chief Rafael Grossi, meanwhile, ended a two -day visit to Tehran this week, meeting with Iranian nuclear officers and the foreign minister in an attempt to alleviate tensions and restore the inspection protocols.

Since Trump returned to service this year, Ayatola Hamenei has been constantly condemning negotiations with Washington.

“Negotiating with this administration is not logical, it is not reasonable or honorable,” he said in a speech in February, only two months before agreeing to the current round of conversations.

The powerlessness of the Supreme Leader stems from Trump's withdrawal from the nuclear deal, the Maximum Pressure campaign that followed, and the murder of General Qassem Soleimani at a US strike in Iraq in 2020.

Ayatollah Hamenei expressed satisfaction with the first round of conversations, saying it was “well -executed”.

But he warned that he was “neither too optimistic nor too pessimistic.”

Earlier, he warned that Iran would take revenge in the case of strikes on his nuclear program.

Some employees, including his advisor, Ali Lariani, have even said that Iran may be “forced” to acquire nuclear weapons if attacked.

“We do not pursue weapons and have no problem with the IAEE supervision – even for an indefinite time. But if you resort to bombing, Iran will have no choice but to review. It's not in your interest,” Larijani told state television this month.

Each country presses its own story about how the conversations are held.

The United States is said to be direct. Iran says they are indirect and that Oman mediates by exchanging written notes.

After the first round in Muscat, Aragchi admitted that there was a brief exchange with Vitcof “Out of Diplomatic Kindness” after crossing paths.

The US News Axios website, citing sources, said the two major negotiators were talking to 45 minutes.

Tehran prefers secrecy. Washington is looking for publicity.

After both countries set out positive statements about the first round, Iran's currency increased by 20%.

Iran's leadership is well aware of the public dissatisfaction with the country's harsh economic conditions – and the potential for protests it can cause.

For the Islamic Republic, fear is not only over bombs – it is also protests.