“President Trump's tariffs are bigger than expected and increase the dangers of inflation,” said Federal Reserve President Jerome Powell.
President Donald Trump Tariffs are expected to increase the unemployment rate throughout the current year, although a new analysis is not expected to be collective.
In a report released on Thursday, Economists in the United States said the labor market in the United States “despite the rise of economic origins” has remained stable and shows indicators that indicate that the resistance should continue until the first half of this year.
They explained: “The amount of vacancies will be the first person to show a recession (expected to be in Q2-Q3) but we don't expect big firings.” “The US economy is facing a unique combination of supply restrictions (more conventional) and immigration policy is increasingly firm. Therefore, companies are likely to consider rare work and prevent unemployment from increasing unemployment.”
“Despite the steep inflationary effects Tariff And constantly the uncertainty of politics, we do not expect great dismissals because US companies are still healthy and also facing a shortage of labor. However, we expect the unemployment rate to rise and reach a peak of 5 % in Q1 2026. “
Unemployment concerns have been jumping to the highest level since 2020 in New York Federal Survey
President Donald Trump's tariffs are expected to increase inflation this year. (Anna Moneymaker / Getty Images / Getty Images)
In The unemployment rate was 4.2 % In March, the latest month that the data was published by the Ministry of Labor, so the Allianz analysis of the unemployment rate (PP) observes the rate of 0.8 % (PP) during the first 2025 to the first quarter of 2026.
Trump Government efforts through the Ministry of Efficiency of the State (Happiness) To reduce the size of the federal workforce, as agencies continue to move forward by firing and expanding shopping offers to workers. The petitions are formed against some of the sedentary movements, which have made their efforts to fire the conditional federal staff.
Allianz does not predict that there is a significant increase in the field Unemployment rate Due to the decline in labor force in federal government agencies.
How Trump's tariffs can affect the job market
Trump's “mutual” tariffs increased the import tax on trading partners based on the US trade deficit with those countries. (Andrew Harnic / Giti Pictures / Giti Pictures)
“DOGE -axis Federal dismissals Economists explained that it probably would not destroy the labor market. “
“Only in October, the employment report is likely to attract the impact of the 75,000 federal employees who have selected the deferred resignation. In general, we expect federal employment to decline nearly 200,000 this year – more than 10 % of the annual employment profit, but even in a severe scenario where other staff.
The analysis added that the labor market is expected to weaken gradually throughout the year and “Tariff inflation spike In the summer, “he expects the Federal Reserve to go through its dual dual job by lowering interest rates at the end of 2025 and early 2026 to support the full component of employment.
Fear of recession, tariff uncertainty in consumer feelings
Trump's tariffs increased the level of fluctuations in the financial markets. (Reuters / Reuters)
Economists of Alianz also noted that after the so -called Trump “Freedom Day” tariffs were announced, investors initially moved to traditional safe assets such as moving. US treasury And the dollar, however, when the “mutual” tariff scale is clarified, focusing on inflation and expectations of raising inflation increases inflation and lowering the federal rate that is expected to be earlier than that safely from those safe shelters.
They wrote: “The markets quickly set up their expectations and re -evaluate the future of monetary policy and removal returns, especially in the long end of the curve.” “However, a structural and perhaps more worrying explanation is gaining stretch: a wave of global assignment of the US treasury and in general the United States.”
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“This is supported by the rare occurrence of US returns alongside A The weakness of the dollarHuman beings typically attract a higher return on foreign capital and strengthen capital, “Economists of Alianz explained.” The fact that the opposite has shown that the main owners not only the sale of the Treasury but also also converted the income from the currency – probably turned into European markets again. “