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Mike Johnson faces a knife-wielding vote to keep his job as Speaker of the US House of Representatives, as top Republicans try to stave off the start of chaos in Donald Trump's second term in Washington.
Congress's basement will open for business at noon on Friday, its first task being to elect a new Speaker.
Although JohnsonThe Louisiana lawmaker who replaced Kevin McCarthy after his dismissal in October 2023, remains a favorite and is supported by Donald Trump, Republicans have a majority of 219 to 215 members, which means that he will need close support to be re-elected.
Thomas Massie, a Kentucky representative, has vowed to oppose Johnson's nomination, so opposing one of the Republican positions could jeopardize his position, assuming all Democrats also vote against him.
“Good luck today to Speaker Mike Johnson, a good man with great skills, who is very close to getting 100% support,” Trump wrote on his Social Truth platform on Friday.
“Mike's win today would be a huge win for the Republican Party.”
The vote is important in the short term because the House will seek to have the Speaker instead confirm Trump's victory in the 2024 presidential election on Monday, paving the way for his January 20 inauguration.
In the long term, Johnson's problem in keeping the speaker could be a bad sign of Trump's ability to pass his agenda in the House, because it will show that some Republicans are willing to do his will and ignore party discipline.
If Johnson is not elected in Friday's primary vote, the process could drag on to multiple rounds, as it did in early 2023 when McCarthy was elected Speaker after 15 votes and dramatic negotiations with his party's incumbents.
Johnson on Thursday met with a group of Republicans who are undecided about supporting him as Speaker – and expressed confidence that he will win them over. “I think tomorrow will go well,” he said.
No other Republican besides Massie said they would vote against him. But many rank-and-file conservatives were outraged before the Christmas holiday when Johnson suggested that government funding agreement which required compromise with the Democrats to ensure its passage.
However, Johnson has remained very close to Trump and his inner circle in recent weeks, coordinating plans to quickly pass his priorities through Congress, which will make it difficult for any Republican to join Massie and block Johnson.
No other candidate has emerged as a possible contender for Johnson for speaker, but Republican discontent is concentrated in the House Freedom Caucus, which includes the most conservative. Even if Johnson survives a vote for speaker, members of the House Freedom Caucus are expected to keep hearing from him as he tries to pass legislation backed by Trump.