A decision day in court for French presidential hopes

The French sea le Pen is facing makeup or crashing on Monday, as a judge rules whether it should be banned from the next presidential election.

The hard-the-right leader, who is ahead of all his rivals in the competition in 2027, will be in court at 10:00 for the verdict of Party funding aimed at its national rally (RN) partyS

In the conclusion of the trial in November, the State Prosecutor asked for convictions for Le Pen and 24 others accused of using parliamentary money from the EU for payment of party salaries.

But to the general surprise, the prosecutor also said that Le Pen's sentence should be not only € 300,000 (250,000 pounds) fine and prison, but also with a term Inappropriateness of the participation in a public office for five yearsS

Most importantly, he said that the unacceptability should start immediately – and not be stopped in anticipation of the complaint that is expected to file a sea pen if convicted.

The three judges are not required to follow the prosecutor's recommendations.

But if they do it would mean Le Pen, who is 56 years standing in presidential election in which she is tilted as a potential winner.

“This is my political death after,” she said in November.

Many French commentators – and not just those who support Le Pen – have warned of serious consequences for democracy if the judiciary is seen as an intervention in the election of the country's leader.

“The fate of the system has the fate of Marin Le Pen in her hands … To be convicted of any mistakes is completely normal. But stopping her to run in the president (election)-this is another matter,” writes veteran analyzer Franz-Olivier Gisbert in Centre-Right Le Point.

“Isn't it dangerous – not to say dangerous – to give the judges the task of determining whether this or that candidate has the ability to run for a position?” Bruno Yedi said, editor of La Tribune Dimanche on Sunday.

Marine Le Pen said to the same newspaper: “Personally, I'm not nervous. But I see why people think I could. Judges have the power of life or death over movement. But I don't think they will go so far.”

Various sentence scenarios are under control.

First, Le Pen can be released from the blame in the EU parliamentary affair. This is widely regarded as unlikely.

Second, judges could condemn her, but make the unacceptability not automatic. In this case, it will immediately appeal and the unacceptability will not be applied only after a second process (and perhaps the third to the Supreme Court of Appeal).

This will leave her free to run in 2027, though with a disability of public money abuse. However, it is far from clear that the sentence would cause her a lot of damage, given the series of party funding scandals that have affected all French parties over the years.

Third, judges can follow the prosecutor and order automatic unacceptability. In this case, it will appeal and other parts of the sentence (fine and prison) will be stopped. However, it will not be able to run in 2027.

Fourth, the court could give her an automatic unacceptability time – to say a year – to make it theoretically possible for her to run.

2027 will be the fourth presidential race of Marine Le Pen and the one that offers the biggest chance of winning.

A survey in the right newspaper JDD Sunday gave her between 34-37% of the first round vote, much ahead of any of her possible rivals.

In the last two presidents, she fell apart from the two -round system that allowed Levi opponents, center and right to rally behind a candidate – Emmanuel Macron – to protect her from powerS

But years of “detoxification”, after she darkened her father Jean-Marie Le Pen, the party at the head of the party made the vote on RN far less united than before, while winning the hard right in other countries helped to raise the taboos of the pH government.

If Le Pen is prohibited by runningHer logical substitute will be Jordan Bardela, the 29-year-old party president, who was supported to be her possible prime minister.

However, party insider admit to having little internal preparation for what would be widely regarded as a huge and destabilizing political earthquake.

One result that Le Pen has been declared incapable of running in 2027 can even more weaken to the French government of Prime Minister Francois Bayro. With 120 members of the National Assembly, RN has the power to vote with the left in a Voting on no -confidence to overthrow the governmentS

Until now, Marin Le Pen is holding his troops. She may feel less inclined if she feels she has fallen victim to an establishment.