Iran's top general in Syria contradicted the official line taken by Iranian leaders on the sudden overthrow of their Syrian ally Bashar al-Assad, saying in a rather candid speech last week that Iran had suffered a major defeat but would still try to operate in Iran. country.
An audio recording of a speech given last week by Brig. General Behrouz Esbati appeared publicly in the Iranian media on Monday at a Tehran mosque, completely contradicting the statements of Iran's president, foreign minister and other senior leaders. For weeks, the rebels have played down the scale of Iran's strategic loss in Syria last month, which ousted Mr. al-Assad, and said Iran would respect any political outcome decided by the Syrian people.
“I don't consider losing Syria something to be proud of,” General Esbati said, according to a recording of his speech. media worker, A Geneva-based news website on Iran published the news on Monday. “We lost and we lost very badly, we got a big blow and it was very difficult.”
General Esbati revealed that Iran's relationship with Mr. Assad had been strained for months leading up to his ouster, saying the Syrian leader had rejected numerous demands for Iranian-backed militias to open a front against Israel from Syria. Hamas-led attack October 7, 2023.
According to him, Iran has provided Mr. Assad with comprehensive military plans on how to use Iran's military resources in Syria to attack Israel.
The general also accused Russia, considered a key ally, of misleading Iran by saying that Russian planes bombed Syrian rebels while dropping bombs on open areas. He also said that last year when Israel hit Iranian targets in Syria, Russia “turned off the radars” and in fact created conditions for these attacks.
For more than a decade, Iran has supported Mr. Assad by sending commanders and troops to help him fight opposition rebels and the Islamic State terrorist group.
Under Mr. Al-Assad, Syria was Iran's regional command center from where it supplied a network of regional militias, including weapons and money. Hezbollah in Lebanon and Palestinian militants in the West Bank. Iran also controlled airports, warehouses, and missile and drone manufacturing bases in Syria.
The rebel coalition has taken control of most of Syria trying to form a governmentt. General Esbati said in his speech that Iran will look for ways to attract the rebels regardless of the shape of the new Syria.
“We can activate all the networks we've worked on over the years,” he said. “We can activate the social classes that our children have lived in for years; we can be active on social media and create resistance cells.”
He added: “Now we can operate there as in other international arenas and we have already started.”
The general's comments surprised Iranians due to their unfiltered content and the speaker's height. He is the top commander of Iran's Armed Forces, the umbrella body that includes the army and the Revolutionary Guard Corps, with prominent roles including the commander-in-chief of the Armed Forces' cyber division.
In Syria, he oversaw Iran's military operations and liaised closely with Syrian ministers, defense officials and Russian generals, even surpassing Gen. Ismail Qaani, commander-in-chief of the Quds Force, which oversees a network of Iranian-backed regional militias.
Mehdi Rahmati, a well-known Tehran analyst and expert on Syria, said in a telephone interview that General Esbati's speech is significant because it shows that some high-ranking officials are breaking away from government propaganda and aligning with the public.
“Everyone is talking about the speech in the meetings and wondering why he said those words, especially in a public forum,” said Mr Rahmati. “He made it very clear what happened to Iran and where it is now. In a way, this can be a warning for domestic politics.”
General Esbati said the overthrow of the Assad regime was inevitable given the rampant corruption, political pressure and economic hardships, from people's lack of power to fuel to livable incomes. He said that Mr. Assad ignored warnings about reforms. Analyst Mr. Rahmati says the comparison with Iran's current situation is hard to miss.
Despite the general's claims about activating the networks, it remains unclear what Iran can realistically do in Syria, given the public and political opposition it faces in the country and the challenges of land and air access. Israel has warned that it will destroy all Iranian attempts on the ground in Syria.
Iran has experience It has been operating in Iraq since the US invasion in 2003 – including sowing unrest – Syria's geography and political landscape are very different and pose more challenges.
General Esbati's comments about Iran recruiting insurgents may be wishful thinking at this stage, a member of Iran's Revolutionary Guard Corps, who spent years with senior commanders in Iraq as a military strategist, said in a telephone interview. According to him, although General Esbati admitted a serious defeat, he tried to strengthen morale and calm the conservatives by demanding stronger action from Iran.
The Guard official, who asked not to be named because he was discussing sensitive issues, said that Iran's policy has not yet been finalized, but a consensus was reached in the meetings he attended where the strategy was discussed. According to him, if Syria descends into chaos, Iran will benefit from it because Iran knows how to develop and secure its interests in a turbulent landscape.
In Iran, the Revolutionary Guards have the power to set regional policy and dissolve the foreign ministry.
Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who has the final say on major state issues, has said in at least two speeches since Mr. Assad's ouster that the resistance in Syria is not dead, adding that Syrian youth will take back their country from the ruling rebels. , called them bandits of Israel and the United States. President Masoud Pezeshkian and Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi expressed their support for stability in Syria and diplomatic relations with the new government, and were more conciliatory.
The tensions surrounding these Syrian officials held mixed opinions enough that they launched a damage control campaign with the public last week. High-ranking military commanders and experts close to the government addressed audiences at mosques and community centers in several cities and held question-and-answer sessions.
General Esbati's speech at Valiyasr Mosque in central Tehran on December 31 addressed the military and key members of the mosque, according to the public release of the event titled “Answers to Questions About the Fall of Syria”.
The session began with General Esbati telling the crowd that he had left Syria on the last military plane for Tehran a day before Damascus fell to the rebels. It ended with him answering questions from the audience. He presented the most sober assessment of Iran's military capabilities against Israel and the United States.
Asked whether Israel would take revenge for Iran's killing of Hezbollah's long-time leader Hassan Nasrullah, he said Iran had already done so. missile strike last fall. Asked whether Iran was planning a third round of direct strikes on Israel, he said the “situation” at this time could not realistically control another attack on Israel.
Asked why Iran would not launch missile strikes against US military bases in the region, he said it would invite larger US retaliatory strikes against Iran and its allies, adding that Iran's conventional missiles, not advanced missiles, would attack US forward defenses. cannot penetrate. systems.
Despite these assessments, General Ebati said he wanted to reassure everyone not to worry: Iran and its allies still have the upper hand in the region.