SpaceX's latest test flight breakup was a spectacular sight, as broken parts of the rocket flew like jellyfish tendrils across the Caribbean sky on Thursday evening.
But some experts say focusing on the dazzling light show, as many people and media have done, highlights a lack of understanding of the environmental consequences of spacecraft failures.
Moriba Jah, an aerospace engineering professor at the University of Texas at Austin, compares it to marveling at the beauty of the mushroom cloud of a nuclear bomb.
“To be hypnotized by the magic of rubble (means) not realizing what it means,” Jah said. “These things can harm ecosystems and impact populations.”
There is also a more immediate danger, illustrated by this incident, of several tons of burning wreckage falling into the water and, although the chances are slim, perhaps even some unlucky patch of land.
Airspace threats
Thursday's Starship test — which consisted of two parts, the Starship upper stage (in this case Ship 33) and the Super Heavy Booster lower stage — lasted about eight and a half minutes. During this time, viewers saw the most powerful rocket ever produced successfully separate the two stages and make an impression “stick” grip of the Superheavy amplifier.
Video captured on social media in Turks and Caicos shows debris flying through the sky after a new Starship rocket broke apart during a test flight.
But shortly thereafter, SpaceX says it lost connection to the upper stage. Finally, the bewildered and awestruck people of Turks and Caicos saw their evening sky ablaze with the wreckage of Ship 33.
Elon Musk, billionaire, CEO of SpaceX, suggested the cause was “an oxygen/fuel leak in the cavity above the ship's engine firewall.” SpaceX says it is investigating what went wrong in coordination with the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA), which requires “accident investigation”, as was the case when a spacecraft test flight in 2023 also exploded.
The flight path originated from Boca Chica, Texas and headed east over the Caribbean Sea. These types of spaceflights provide advance warning about airspace, but the loss of communications created another, more urgent one.
The FAA said in a statement that it “briefly slowed and directed the aircraft toward the area where debris was falling.” As a result, flights were delayed, circled or turned back.
Some pilots could even see the fireworks from their cockpits.
According to Jaha, airline passengers are not fully informed about the risks, even if they are small.
“If you and I were getting on a plane and someone said, 'Hey, there's a one in 10,000 chance you won't come,' I wouldn't get on the plane,” Jah told CBC News from Austin: offering some hypothetical odds.
Boley agrees, saying the risks and costs of the spaceflight industry are exported to the aerospace industry.
Breakups are hard to model
This flight is believed to have broken up over the Atlantic Ocean and there have been no reports of any injuries or sightings of debris.
Aaron Boley, deputy director of the Outer Space Institute and an expert in space sustainability, says he doesn't even know how these ships fall apart.
“The extent of the debris field, how much debris, how much lethal debris – that is, how many pieces fall at a speed that could cause significant damage – are issues that are not well understood at this point,” said Boley, who is also an associate professor at the University of British Columbia .
Jah agrees, calling the simulations “woefully poor at predicting anything with any significant accuracy” and relying on a “hope strategy” that breakups cause no harm.
“Designated danger area”
Even the most successful end of this spacecraft launch was still going to hit the water – but far away, with a splashdown in the southern Indian Ocean.
A splash zone is a “designated hazard area” where the risk to human life is assumed to be lower in such remote areas. However, even scheduled departures cause disruptions to airline operations. – says the Australian airline Qantas SpaceX re-entries resulted in forced delays in recent weeks while flying over the Indian Ocean.
Splashing here “is the least worst option,” Boley said, giving people a chance to roughly figure out where and when something might fall.
But the worst way for debris to fall is through uncontrolled explosions like Thursday, which is a roll of the dice.
“You just assume that these pieces are spread out over a large enough area that they're unlikely to actually hit someone and cause damage,” Boley said.
A riskier future
Experts say that because of all this uncertainty, there isn't much of an idea of how missile debris affects the marine environment.
Tests in 2016, research from New Zealand's National Water and Atmospheric Institute reviewed the potential short- and long-term threats that missile debris poses to life in nearby oceans.
The expert panel found that 10 launches, successful or not, each of which produced 40 tons of debris, “would still pose a low risk.”
But more launches mean more risk.
“At 100 launches the risk may be moderate and at 1,000 it may become high,” they warned.
Experts say halting space exploration is not the answer, but given the pace of the industry's growth, greater emphasis should be placed on calculating environmental risks.
“What statistics will we stick to?” Jah asks. “What kind of testing will we require so that humans can successfully explore space, but not to the detriment of environmental sustainability?”