Although the ceasefires in Gaza and Lebanon were tested to their limits over the weekend, they are likely to hold for now as all sides want to avoid full-scale fighting for at least several weeks, analysts said.
Israeli soldiers in southern Lebanon remained in position The deadline for their withdrawal expired on Sunday amid Israeli allegations that Hezbollah had broken its promise to withdraw from the area. In Gaza, Hamas failed to release a female hostage whom Israel had hoped would be released on Saturday. to delay the agreed return internally displaced Palestinians to their homes in northern Gaza.
But while both sides accuse the other of reneging on deals, both Israel and its opponents have reasons to remain flexible and temporarily overlook the other's transgressions, analysts say.
While Hezbollah is angry at Israel for keeping troops in southern Lebanon, it risks a devastating Israeli counterattack if it renews rocket attacks on Israeli cities. Hamas wants to retain power in Gaza and risks losing it if war returns. And Israel must maintain the current arrangement in Gaza long enough to free at least two dozen more hostages. Israeli leaders also sought to appease the campaigning President Trump promises to keep the peace in the Middle East.
Israel and Hamas, which have shown their desire to extend the ceasefire in Gaza, resolved the weekend crisis by midnight on Sunday. The government of Qatar, which is the mediator between the parties, informed about this female hostage, Arbel Yehudhe was to be released this week, along with two other parolees. In return, Israel said it would allow displaced Palestinians Back to northern Gaza on monday morning.
As for Lebanon, The White House released information Although there was no immediate comment from Israel and Hezbollah, the ceasefire there will be extended until February 18. The Lebanese prime minister's office confirmed the extension.
Aaron David Miller, a former U.S. negotiator in Middle East peace talks, said, “They're going to come through in the next couple of weeks — it's not something anyone is predicting.”
“These are not agreements between the United States and Switzerland. These are agreements that give each side a certain margin of discretion and maneuverability.” “That's their weakness, but also their strength.”
That wiggle room ultimately allowed both ceasefires to survive the weekend, even as Israeli troops opened fire. killed people in both Lebanon and Gaza Those trying to return to areas still controlled by Israel.
Lebanon's Ministry of Health said 22 people were killed by Israeli fire in southern Lebanon, while the Palestinian Authority's news agency said one person was killed in both Gaza as large crowds gathered near Israeli soldiers and demanded they go home.
But by Monday morning, the conflict in Gaza had calmed down. In Lebanon, Hezbollah released a statement praising residents who tried to return and called on foreign powers to force Israel to withdraw. However, Hezbollah did not continue firing rockets.
With Hezbollah's leadership destroyed and its benefactor Iran weakened, it is unlikely to face more casualties, analysts say. Also, the group's main arms supply route through Syria was shut down in December by Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, an ally of Hezbollah. overthrown by the rebels.
“Hezbollah commanders still have some missiles, they have weapons, they can do something,” said Hanin Ghaddar, a Lebanese analyst at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, a foreign affairs research group.
“But if they do, it's suicidal, because they know that any Hezbollah attack on Israel means that Israel will take the opportunity to come back full blast and destroy whatever is left of them,” Ms. Gaddar added.
Ms. Gaddar noted that Hezbollah is also likely wary of losing support among its Shiite Muslim base, especially in next year's parliamentary elections. Lebanon's Shiite community paid the biggest price for Hezbollah's decision to leave War with Israel In October 2023, it showed solidarity with its ally Hamas. Shiite villages and towns in southern Lebanon carried the load Israeli air strikes and ground invasion.
“If the Shiites don't vote for them, it will be the end of Hezbollah,” said Ms. Gaddar, the author of a book about the relationship with Hezbollah's base. “They can't do anything unless they know 100 percent that the Shia community will support it.”
As Hezbollah is unlikely to resume fighting, the Gaza ceasefire is considered the weaker of the two.
But its biggest stress test is not expected until early March, when Hamas and Israel must decide whether to extend the deal beyond an initial 42-day ceasefire.
For now, Israel has said it wants to maintain the ceasefire in order to continue the flow of hostage releases. But an extension would require both sides to agree to a permanent end to the war — a bridge that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu appears unwilling to cross. Mr Netanyahu's coalition government relies on far-right lawmakers who want permanent Israeli control of Gaza, and his administration could collapse if the war, which Hamas is still in charge of, ends.
The terms of the contract allow for some flexibility. The ceasefire could continue beyond 42 days as long as both sides continue to negotiate on whether the deal should be permanent.
But Israeli officials say they will not be locked into endless fruitless negotiations, especially if Hamas stops releasing the hostages. And Hamas is unlikely to continue releasing hostages, a key bargaining chip, without Israel's pledge to permanently end hostilities.
“Hamas wants a ceasefire, but not at the cost of anything,” said Mkhaimar Abusada, a Palestinian political scientist from Gaza. “They want a ceasefire that will end the war”
Much may depend on President Trump's willingness to push Mr. Netanyahu into a longer-term truce. Mr Trump's private messages to Israel's prime minister were crucial to setting the stage, but it remains to be seen whether the US president will maintain his stance in a few weeks.
“If Netanyahu can convince Trump of the need to renew the war, there will probably be a renewal of the war,” Mr. Abusada said. “If Trump follows through on his promise that he doesn't want any war and wants more peace — whether it's in Gaza, Ukraine, or around the world — that's another thing.”