Traders work on the New York Stock Exchange on June 18, 2025.
Nyse
American shares definitely affected the difficult beginning of the year, even when the prospects of the largest economy in the world and its interest rates remain as uncertain as always.
Economic modeling is now “very difficult” because “things are constantly changing”, the president of Atlanta Fed Raphael Bostic said on Monday “Squawk Box Europe” CNBC, pointing to A recent Canada defender from digital tax tax.
Market participants also carefully observe the latest progress of US President Donald Trump “A large, beautiful bill,” Which He cleaned the key obstacle in Sense at the weekend.
From the perspective of inflation, this means focusing on the expectations of companies and consumers, as well as the actions they take in response, continued Bostic.
“The story is that we really start to hear clear signs, that they expect to raise prices, but how high and when it happens is still quite unknown,” he said.
More companies report that they cannot achieve the final tariff strategy by 2026, so their impact on the increase and increase in prices can be much more elongated than it seems that many are expecting, “added Bostic.
. The latest Fed “Dot Fout” The map of the expectations of members towards rates shows a wide range of different perspectives among the officials of the economy, which said that Bostic “really talks about the uncertainty that is there.”
Jerome Powell Fed chair last week He emphasized the need to have a monetary policy until The impact of tariffs on prices He explains, but the markets then attached their expectations in the field of lower FED funds. Data from the Fedwatch of the CME Group shows about 50% of the probability of three squares by the end of the year, along with 10% probability of a larger finish to the range of 3.25% -3.5% compared to the current 4.25% -4.5%.
Gilles Moëc, the main economist of the group at Axa Investment Managers, said on Monday that the new interest rate expectations were a reaction to the last round Trump's attacks on Powell. This again aroused the perspective of the US president, who in the near future called Powell's successor in the near future to undermine his authority.
Trump has rapidly criticized the Fed for maintaining interest rates, and its choice would support the lowering of the feet, even if most of the voting members were against.
“Naming the next (Fed) president long before the end of the term Powell-Materializing the very spoken script” Fed Fed “-may be a harbinger of permanent variability” and reverse foreign investors from American assets, said MOëc.
Raising
. S&P 500 Closed in High all time On Friday, returning from early April, when it fell by almost 18% a year. The index was recorded by large swings among the ongoing history of tariffs in the White House, the latest chapter introduced RAM trade agreement Between the US and China, which helped increase market moods last week.
USA Trade agreement with Great Britain Meanwhile, he entered into force on Monday, reducing the tariffs to British cars and airlines, but maintaining the basic duty of 10% on most goods.
Both countries have not yet completed the contract for the import of steel – while A wider policy of steel tariffs in the USA It maintains increased prices and decreases elsewhere.
The White House remains closed in negotiations with many key trading partners, including Canada, the European Union, Taiwan, Japan and India.
“At the moment I think that markets are very naive to what is happening on the trading front,” said Bob Parker, a senior adviser at the Capital Markets Association on Monday.
“We could easily conduct this discussion at the end of the year or potentially to go to 2026, because we all know that conducting trade agreements is very complicated and long,” said Parker. “As we saw at the weekend with Canada, there is a serious risk of failure of commercial negotiations.”
He added that in particular with the European Union, even if On July 9, the date of reaching the contract is extendedThere could be a few sticking points.