Sign up for the free White House Watch newsletter
Your guide to what the 2024 US election means for Washington and the world
The writer is the chief executive of the New America think-tank and a contributing editor of the FT
For nearly two decades, China adhered to the doctrine of “peaceful rise”, a concept developed by government adviser and intellectual Zheng Bijan. It emphasized China's desire to grow in power and prosperity by joining the international system, without posing a threat to other nations.
The strategy succeeded: from 1990 to the mid-2010s, China's GDP and global influence rose dramatically. Xi Jinping, however, changed course. Starting in 2017, he launched a set of tactics known as “wolf warrior diplomacy”. Chinese diplomats have become more independent in defending China's interests. In just a few years the Chinese government succeeded in eradicating the goodwill caused by years of peaceful uprisings.
In 2023, Xi resigned. But this continued aggressiveness in China's interests has aggravated the world, creating mistrust and persuading many of China's partners to hedge their bets by strengthening ties with the US.
Now, US president-elect Donald Trump and his merry band of tech titans are embracing their brand of Wild West diplomacy, augmented by a dose of Silicon Valley swagger. Its characteristics are high self-esteem, disregard for rules of any kind and willingness to make deals with anyone anywhere as long as they advance immediate interests.
Trump himself lives in the world of the elite, which finds a positive echo in his new California friends. Many of the men who rose to power and unimaginable wealth on the back of new technology think that America's superiority over other countries is reflected in the superiority of the technology sector throughout the US economy. It is the future, and they control it.
Such attitudes seem certain to create a series of incidents and minor conflicts with other countries. However, based on the Chinese experience, the issue will not be this or that anger, but a continuous collection of statements and actions that gradually enter the domestic politics of other nations, organizations that change in successive ways.
As Xi found out, Beijing's truculence and bald sense of entitlement strengthened the hand of China hawks in the US and the EU, and sowed doubts among China's former allies. The long-term damage to the relationship between Washington and Beijing was not only the result of Trump's actions during his last term in office, but also a profound change in the views of former Obama officials who entered the Biden administration and were built on many anti-Trump elements. – Chinese policies.
Increasing U.S. technology dominance, in particular, will strengthen those in other countries already seeking to challenge the dominance of America's largest technology companies. The EU has been fighting for power and access to those companies for more than a decade. The new Trump administration, following Meta's refusal to transfer its artificial intelligence to the EU, is likely to impose measures that will provide the necessary impetus to the creation of European integrated technology and defense markets.
In countries such as Mexico, India, Brazil, Turkey, South Africa, Kenya, Ethiopia and Indonesia, where current leaders are friendly to Trump, the constant push from Washington to open markets and improve trade terms that favor US companies will alienate them. domestic entrepreneurs and exporters.
The US, like China in the wolf age, will increasingly break and deviate from domestic and international laws. Requiring everyone to “pay” for American military protection would look more like a racketeering racket.
The rise of middle powers, now able to play a more independent role on the world stage than in the 20th century, do not want to be pawns in the US-China rivalry. They will insist instead on asserting their national interests in the same way that Trump wishes to put America first.
The George W Bush administration abandoned international law and order in favor of a “coalition of the willing”. Since then, the Republican unilateralists have been followed by the Democratic multilateralists who spent years repairing the damage to US international relations and creating new informal alliances and organizations.
This cycle, however, has eroded trust and confidence in the credibility of the US as a partner and ally. Add a heavy dose of arrogance and insults, and the damage caused by the next era of American wolf warrior diplomacy could be permanent.