By Orhan Qereman, Tom Perry and Tuvan Gumrukcu
QAMISHLI, Syria / BEIRUT / ANKARA (Reuters) – With Turkish-backed groups in northern Syria, and Damascus controlled by a group friendly to Ankara, Syria's main Kurdish groups are on the back foot as they seek to maintain political advantage. it was carved during 13 years of war.
Part of an unstable group that straddles Iraq, Iran, Turkey, Armenia and Syria, the Kurds have so far been among the few winners of the Syrian war, controlling nearly a quarter of the country and leading a powerful armed group that is a key US ally. in the fight against the Islamic State.
But the balance of power has turned against them since the Islamist group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) swept into Damascus this month, toppling President Bashar al-Assad, two analysts and a senior Western diplomat told Reuters.
Seismic changes in Syria are expected to produce serious pressure on Turkey as the change in US administration raises questions about how long Washington will continue to support the Kurdish-led forces.
In Turkey, Kurdish groups represent a threat to national security. Ankara views them as an extension of the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK), which has waged a rebellion against the Turkish government since 1984 and is considered a terrorist group by Turkey, the United States and other powers.
Syrian Kurdish groups are “in deep trouble”, said Aron Lund, a fellow at Century International, a US-based think tank.
“The balance has fundamentally shifted in Syria to the advantage of groups supported by Turkey or aligned with Turkey, and Turkey seems determined to take full advantage of it.”
The change is reflected in renewed fighting for control of the north, where Turkish-backed armed groups known as the Syrian National Army (SNA) have made military advances against the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF).
Fanar al-Kait, a senior official in the Kurdish-led regional government, told Reuters that the ousting of Assad, whose Arab Baath Party had oppressed the Kurds for decades, offered an opportunity to unite the fractured country.
He said the administration was ready to negotiate with Turkey, but the conflict in the north showed that Ankara “has very bad intentions”.
“This will definitely push the region towards … a new conflict,” he added.
Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan said on Friday he expects foreign countries to withdraw support for Kurdish forces after Assad's ouster, as Ankara seeks to split the People's Protection Units (YPG), the Kurdish militia that leads the SDF coalition.
In response to questions from Reuters, a Turkish official said that the root of the conflict “is not Turkey's view of the region; it is that the PKK/YPG is a terrorist organization”.
“Members of the PKK/YPG must lay down their arms and leave Syria,” the official said.
SDF commander Mazloum Abdi, in an interview with Reuters on Thursday, acknowledged the presence of PKK fighters in Syria for the first time, saying that they helped fight the Islamic State and will return home when a full agreement is reached with Turkey. He denied any association with the PKK.
FAMINISM AND ISLAM
Meanwhile, in Damascus, the new leadership is showing warmth to Ankara and is showing that it wants to bring the whole of Syria under central authority – a potential challenge to the Kurds' regime.
While Turkey provides direct support to the SNA, it and other countries see HTS as a terrorist group because of al Qaeda's past.
Despite this, Ankara believes that it has the greatest strength in the group. A senior Western diplomat said: “The Turks can have more influence than anyone else”.
HTS leader Ahmed al-Sharaa told a Turkish newspaper that Assad's ouster “is not only a victory for the Syrian people, but also for the Turkish people”.
A Turkish official said HTS was not and had never been under Ankara's control, calling it an organization “with which we are in contact due to circumstances” and adding that many Western countries were doing so.
Syrian Kurdish groups led by the Democratic Union Party (PYD) and the YPG militia took control of much of the north after a 2011 uprising against Assad. They establish their own rule, while emphasizing their goal is independence, not independence.
Their politics, which emphasize socialism and feminism, are very different from HTS' Islamism.
Their territory grew as US-led forces joined forces with the SDF in the campaign against the Islamic State, seizing mostly Arab territories.
Turkey-backed SNA forces intensified their campaign against the SDF as Assad was overthrown, capturing the city of Manbij on 9 Dec.
Washington announced a ceasefire, but the SDF said Turkey and its allies did not comply, and a Turkish defense official said there was no such agreement.
US support for the SDF has been a point of tension with its NATO ally, Turkey. Washington sees the SDF as a key partner in countering the Islamic State, Secretary of State Antony Blinken has warned he will try to use this time to re-establish power in Syria. The SDF is guarding tens of thousands of prisoners linked to the militant group.
Turkish Defense Minister Yasar Guler said last weekend that Turkey has seen no sign of the resurgence of the Islamic State in Syria. On Friday, Turkey's foreign minister, Hakan Fidan, told his German counterpart during talks in Ankara that other methods should be found in the management of camps and prisons where prisoners are held.
In contrast, US Assistant Secretary of State for Eastern Affairs Barbara Leaf said on Friday that Washington was working with Ankara and the SDF to find “a controlled change in terms of the role of the SDF in that part of the country.”
President Joe Biden's administration has said US troops will remain in Syria, but President-elect Donald Trump could withdraw them when he takes office on Jan. 20.
LETTER TO TRUMP
During his first administration, Trump tried to withdraw from Syria but faced pressure at home and in the US institutions.
In a December 17 letter to Trump, reviewed by Reuters, senior Syrian Kurdish official Ilham Ahmed said Turkey was preparing to attack the northeast before he took office.
Turkey's plan “threatens to end years of progress in ensuring stability and fighting terrorism”, he wrote. “We believe you have the power to prevent this tragedy.”
Asked to respond, Trump-Vance transition spokesman Brian Hughes said: “We continue to monitor the situation in Syria. President Trump is committed to reducing threats to peace and stability in the Middle East and protecting the American people here at home.”
Trump said on Dec. 16 that Turkey “will hold the key” to what happens in Syria but did not announce his plans for the US troops stationed there.
“The Kurds are in an unfortunate situation,” said Joshua Landis, a Syria expert at the University of Oklahoma. “When Damascus consolidates its power, it will go to the region. The US cannot stay there forever.”
The leader of HTS Sharaa told the British broadcaster BBC that the Kurds were “part of our people” and “there should be no division of Syria”, adding that the arms should be in the hands of the state completely.
Sharaa acknowledged one of Turkey's biggest concerns – the presence of non-Kurdish Syrian soldiers – and said: “We will not accept that the Syrian states threaten and disrupt Turkey or other areas.”
He promised to work through dialogue and negotiation to find a “peaceful way to solve the problem,” saying he believed the first contact had been established “between the Kurds in northeastern Syria or the SDF organization”.
Kait, a Kurdish official, said that his administration wants “a democratic Syria, a controlled Syria, a Syria that represents all Syrians of all sects, religions and ethnicities,” describing these as red lines. The SDF will be “the nucleus of the future Syrian army,” he added.
SDF commander Abdi, in his Reuters interview, confirmed that communication has been established with HTS to avoid clashes between their forces but said that Ankara will try to drive the border between Damascus and the Kurdish-led regime.
Still, he said there is strong support from international groups, including the US led by the US, for the SDF to join the “new political phase” in Damascus, calling it a “good opportunity”.
“We are preparing, after the end of the fire between us and between Turkey and allied groups, to join this phase,” he said.
(Reporting by Orhan Qereman in Qamishli, Syria, Tom Perry in Beirut and Tuvan Gumrukcu in Ankara; Additional reporting by John Irish in Paris, Humeyra Pamuk in Washington and Daren Butler in Istanbul; Writing by Tom Perry; Editing by Alexandra Zavis)