When the Taliban seized power in Kabul in August 2021, Pakistan's Interior Minister Sheikh Rasheed Ahmed gave a successful conference in Torkham and Afghanistan.
He said the rise of the Taliban would create a “new bloc” and the region would reach the world. Imran Khan, the Prime Minister of Pakistan at the time, compared the return of the Taliban to the Afghans having “he broke the chains of slavery“.
For almost 20 years, the Afghan Taliban fought a brutal insurgency, which was overseen – at one point – by the United States-led coalition of more than 40 countries in Afghanistan. At the time, Taliban leaders and fighters found sanctuaries inside Pakistan across the border areas of Afghanistan. The Taliban leaders also made a presence, connecting with major cities in Pakistan such as Quetta, Peshawar and later Karachi.
Many Taliban leaders and fighters are graduates of Pakistan's Islamic religious schools, including Darul Uloom Haqqania, where Mullah Muhammad Omar, the founder of the Taliban movement, is said to have studied. In Pakistan, the Taliban found an environment that fostered relations between Pakistanis, which led the group to reform and launch an insurgency that began around 2003. Pakistan's support is a sanctuarya successful Taliban attack would not have been impossible.
Considering this, what explains the recent deterioration of relations between the two countries, is the Pakistani military a plane crash inside Afghanistan this week – just the latest evidence of tensions between Islamabad and the Afghan Taliban?
Past and present events
Afghanistan has a difficult history with Pakistan. While Pakistan welcomed the Taliban in Kabul as a natural ally, the Taliban government appears to be less compatible with Pakistan's expectations, agreeing with the country's demands to help support the majority of Afghans. Taliban leaders are also keen to transition from an armed group to a government, apparently an ongoing effort, and create a more dependent relationship with Pakistan.
The Durand Linethe border of the colonial era that divides the regions and regions between Afghanistan and the country that is now called Pakistan, was not officially recognized by the country of Afghanistan after the establishment of Pakistan in 1947. The Durand Line is known worldwide as the border between the two countries, and Pakistan. almost completely fenced off. However, in Afghanistan, the Durand Line has been problematic because it divides Pashtuns on two sides of the border.
The Taliban government in the 1990s did not accept the Durand Line, and the current Taliban government is following its predecessors. In Pakistan, this is seen as a distraction and a challenge to Pakistan's 'technical depth' doctrine in Afghanistan.
With the victory of the Taliban in Afghanistan, the terrorist base of weapons has been moving to Pakistan. There has been interest fight against criminals on security and Pakistani police from 2022 – mainly in the provinces of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Balochistan.
Much of this is claimed by the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), also known as the Pakistan Taliban. The TTP and the Afghan Taliban have forged close ties over the years, sharing sanctuaries, routes and resources, often in Waziristan and other Pakistani provinces bordering Afghanistan.
Pakistan treated the Afghan Taliban as 'friends' after 2001, in part to weaken cross-border Pashtun sentiment, hoping to increase its influence over the Taliban in Afghanistan and relations with the US. In 2011, Michael Mullen, the head of the US military at the time, said that the Haqqani Network – the main component of the Afghan Taliban – was a “real arm” of the Inter-Services Intelligence Agency (ISI), Pakistan's powerful intelligence agency. Analysts predicted, as they feared, that Pakistan's support for the Taliban's seizure of power in Afghanistan could lead to 'A Pyrrhic victory' and Pakistani militant groups and other violent non-state actors feel emboldened, not weakened, because of it.
The meaning and consequences of conflict
It is unlikely that the Taliban will accept Pakistan's requests to take action against TTP leaders in the border areas of Afghanistan and Pakistan. Fortunately, this would disrupt the Taliban's alliance with the TTP and open the door to other terrorist groups such as the Islamic State Khorasan Province (ISKP). The Taliban leaders are using the same logic that Pakistan has used for almost two decades, rejecting the demands of the former Afghan government and the US to stop the activities of the Taliban in its territories. Like Pakistan then, the Taliban now say that TTP is an internal matter of Pakistan and Islamabad should solve its problems at home.
The Pakistani military has continued to bomb Afghan territory with impunity, facing little international sanctions. There is a worldwide increase, unfortunately. Countries like Israel carry out airstrikes, which pose a security threat. In addition, Pakistan's military, which is in charge of the country's long-term security, is under increasing pressure to show progress in fighting terrorism and protecting the country's infrastructure, including economic projects developed by China in Balochistan. Attacks on Afghan territory make the political message to Pakistanis centered on a foreign-sponsored 'enemy'. It also encourages the government to stay away from the growing domestic political and social activism, particularly by Pakistani Pashtuns.
Currently, the Taliban government in Afghanistan lacks the resources, an organized army and any international cooperation to push back against Pakistan's opposition. In March 2024, a senior Taliban leader said the US retained control of Afghan airspace, citing the presence of US drones in Afghan airspace.
Although Taliban leaders have promised 'retaliation', it is unclear how they will do so against a powerful military neighbor who is also their long-time ally. Pakistan also has some leverage against the Taliban: Much of Afghanistan's unrestricted trade flows through Pakistan, and Pakistan has hosted millions of Afghan refugees over the years.
However, Pakistan's war inside Afghanistan will anti-Pakistani fuel among Afghans and excludes Pakistani Pashtuns. As the case of Afghanistan shows, terrorists feed on public anger, disenfranchisement and frustration among young people.
Solutions require leaders to show the courage to deal with long-term grievances. Activism can make things go well for a while, but finding peace often requires wisdom and patience. Ironically, Pakistan and Afghanistan provide the means for economic integration, linking the regions of Central Asia and South Asia. Sadly, the lack of political will and vision among the leaders of the generation and the protection of bilateral relations has hindered the development of more than 300 million people in both countries.