Analysts say that German tax return can be a “game changer” for the slow economy of the country


Markus Söder (LR), CSU chairman and minister President of Bavaria, Friedrich Merz, candidate for the chancellor of CDU/CSU, chairman of the CDU/CSU parliamentary group and chairman of Saskia Eken, Saski Esten, party, party, SWU, SWU, SPD, SPD, SP, SP, SP, Organize a press conference on explore conversations CDU/CSU A SPD.

Kay NietFeld/DPA | Picture Alliance Getty images

The future German fiscal turning can be transformed for the fighting economy of the country and European defense-but Berlin legislators do not have much time to make a historical change.

The fiscal and economic policy was seen as highly controversial during the previous ruling coalition of Germany and contributed to its final breaking At the end of last year. Among the ongoing negotiations on the new ruling alliance of the Christian Democratic Union and its Christian partner of the Social Union – which led in February polls – and the Social Democratic Party seems to achieve something groundbreaking.

On Tuesday, probably the future chancellor Friedrich Merz and other political leaders announced plans to reform the long -term fiscal pillar known as Germany No debt, In particular, to enable higher defense expenses. They also revealed a new Special Fund worth EUR 500 billion ($ 535 billion) for infrastructure.

The material of these plans will mean changes in the German Constitution, which requires the support of a majority of two -thirds in parliament. It would probably work now – but it would be very difficult to achieve when the newly elected representatives of the parliament meet for the first time this month.

Voting on constitutional amendments can therefore be transferred within a week.

“Large, brave, unexpected – game changer”

“Large, brave, unexpected – game changer for perspectives,” said Bank of America Global Research Economists and analysts in Wednesday's note, adding that the “significant” package changed the prospects of the German economy.

For several years, the German economy has been slowly shaky on the edge of technical recession, defined as two consecutive quarters of the decline in gross domestic product. Domestic GDP alternately expand and contraction in each quarter in 2023 and 2024.

The country is in the face of a wide range of problems, including infrastructure problems, the fighting home construction sector and pressure on some industries, which historically definitely contributed to its growth, such as cars.

Now there is hope for a change. They believe that the planned special investment vehicle could benefit the country's economy.

Markets can expect economic growth, and the estimates of Germany's growth can probably be increased, Florian Schuster-Johnson, a senior economist at Zernat Zukunft, said “Street Signs Europe” on Wednesday.

“I think that in a short period this will of course increase national demand, because there will be high demand for people building these new infrastructures and companies that () now receive new government orders,” he said.

The economist says that the proposal of fiscal change in Germany is

Schuster-Johnson added that higher defense expenses can also have a long-term impact on the economy, which leads to an increase in production capacity, which can ultimately also deal with civil use.

It could exceed the Germans above the current NATO goal spent 2% GDP for defense, the research economists of Deutsche Bank say on Tuesday.

“Today's solid rhetoric suggests that an open defense loan room will be used at a pace that could bring German defense expenses to at least 3% perhaps next year,” they said.

Merz suggested that geopolitical development showed that serious means should be taken to strengthen the possibilities of security and defense in Europe.

“In the light of threats to our freedom and peace on our continent,” whatever you need “, now it must also follow our defense,” he added, according to CNBC translation.

While political ads would be largely beneficial, other budget and budget plans from the likely new coalition are to come and can have their own influence on Germany's economy, noticed the global head of Makro Carsten Brzeski.

“We would not rule out that official coalition talks will still bring some cuts of expenses, which will reduce the positive impact of the fiscal stimulus announced,” he said.

Elsewhere, the legislator Bernd Baumann, who is part of the German far -right alternative party Fuer Deutschland, told Reuters that the party was conducting a preliminary legal review of the announcement and reserved the right to take action.

Politics details

By passing detailed information, a special investment fund worth EUR 500 billion will not be part of the federal budget, but will be financed via a loan without a contribution to a new debt. Funds are to be used within 10 years, focusing on transport, energy, education, civic protection and other infrastructure. Federal countries will also be allocated some funds to support their finances.

To avoid cash subject to a debt brake, the fund will be rooted in the constitution and released usually fiscal.

At the moment, the debt brake limits how much debt can take, and decides that the size of the federal government budget deficit cannot exceed 0.35% of the annual GDP in the country.

One key change in the new plan is that defense expenses that go beyond 1% of Germany will not be calculated in relation to the restriction of the debt brake, which means that such expenses will no longer be limited.

The German principle of the

German countries will also be able to take a larger debt than before, and long -term proposals for modernizing the debt brake and strengthening the investment will also be undertaken.

The proposed debt brake review also means a serious transition from the CDU-CSU election campaign, during which the pages have repeatedly positioned as wanting to stick to the era of Angeli Merkel. Merz finally suggested that he could be open to some reform.

Market reaction

The plans caused widespread market reactionwith German Dax Jumping 3.4% to 12:51 time in London, because German companies led the European Stoxx 600 above. Construction and production companies have achieved significant profits, as did German lenders.

German loan costs increased. Performance in German 10-year bondswhich are perceived as the reference point of the euro area, there were recently over 25 base points and 2 years The efficiency is enriched with over 16 base points.

Schuster-Johnson from Zamenata Zukunft told CNBC that the market response suggested a surprise of the pace and the size of the proposed changes.

“The most important thing is that Germany has returned and Germany is financed,” he said. “This move that we saw last night is really amazing. You know that the Germans sometimes move late, and sometimes delayed when large steps are needed, but this is a big step, and when they take it, they do it very radically. “



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