Islamabad, Pakistan – Pakistan entered the new year in a state of relative calm after 30 months of turmoil, marked by political instability, contested elections, and economic instability is on the verge of collapse.
As domestic politics stabilize and the economy looks set to change in South Asia's second most populous country, foreign policy and security issues are likely to emerge as the country's biggest concerns this year.
Analysts predict a difficult 2025 for Pakistan, as it manages relations with neighbors, allies and enemies around the world, as well as the United States, where Donald Trump is expected to return to power at the end of this month.
Most of Pakistan's foreign policy and security challenges are caused by its neighbours, particularly Afghanistan to its west and India to its east.
Militant and terrorist violence escalated in Pakistan across Afghanistan after the Taliban took control of Kabul in 2021. In 2024, gunfire killed nearly 700 law enforcement officials, making it one of the deadliest years in the country of 240 million people.
The attacks were carried out mainly by the Pakistan Taliban (Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan, TTP), a military-oriented group. Afghan Taliban his emotional twin. Insurgents are fighting over areas related to the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), a massive $62bn project that has brought Islamabad and Beijing closer than ever as political and economic partners.
Christopher Clary, a non-resident fellow at the Stimson Center, a non-profit organization in the US, and an associate professor of political science at the University at Albany, says that Pakistan is facing its worst national security crisis “in a decade or so. since the 1990s”.
“Pakistan doesn't have the best way to recover its wealth and rebuild its relations with other major powers and its neighbors. This could take years of work, and it's not clear that Pakistan has many years to do this before the building collapses,” Clary told Al Jazeera.
Here is a rundown of the countries that will be at the forefront of Islamabad's foreign policy this year:
China
Pakistani officials often promote their “deeper than sea, higher than mountains” relationship with China. But 2024 revealed cracks in this relationship.
Attacks on Chinese citizens and interests it came to a head, forcing a public rebuke from Beijing's envoy in Islamabad. “It is unacceptable for us to be attacked twice in just six months,” Jiang Zaidong said at an event in Islamabad in October.
Muhammad Faisal, a foreign policy expert in China, warns that although China will continue to provide financial assistance to Pakistan, any further expansion of the CPEC project in the country is unlikely.
“Pakistan needs to look carefully from Beijing to find a 'Joint Security Mechanism', deploying Chinese security personnel in Pakistani territory that will make them a target for terrorists who undermine the existing security system,” Faisal told Al Jazeera.
The Chinese military overseeing Pakistan's operations would signal acceptance of Islamabad's security failures, increase the risk of Chinese targets being targeted, and increase the political ability of Chinese fighters to kill Pakistani citizens.
Meanwhile, experts also fear that Trump's criticism of China could push Beijing to seek humanitarian aid from Pakistan, which will be forced to take a diplomatic route to avoid angering Washington, its old ally.
Trump has been focusing on China, and it is his first time to see a trade war between the two economic powers. In his second term, the US leader promised to impose tariffs of up to 60 percent on Chinese imports.
“But since Pakistan is not at the top of Trump's international agenda, there is a silver lining. However, uncertainty is the cause of all the problems between Pakistan and China,” said Faisal.
Kamran Bokhari, the director of the New Lines Institute for Strategy and Policy in the US, said that China's frustration with Pakistan stems from the fact that they are investing heavily in CPEC and that they are bringing in little. He also said that China's problems could benefit the US.
“China has already been disappointed with Pakistan and this relationship has existed for some time. But Beijing is preparing because it is deep in Pakistan, because of the CPEC billions, not benefiting from it. Therefore, China being in the mud in Pakistan is good for the US,” Bokhari told Al Jazeera.
United States
Pakistan to agreement with the US returning to their independence from British rule and emerging as a new country in 1947. But the Islamabad-Washington relationship focused on how Pakistan supported US policies in the region, especially in Afghanistan, where the Soviet war took place in the 1970s and 1980s. or the “war on terror” led by the US following the 9/11 attacks in 2001.
With the Afghan Taliban returning to power in Kabul, Pakistan-US relations in the South Asian region have weakened. Although the US now has little investment in Afghanistan, Pakistan has gradually turned to China for economic, military and technological needs.
Hassan Abbas, a professor at the National Defense University in Washington, DC, believes that Pakistan should “carefully manage” its relationship with the US amid tensions with China and India. He says that “despite the apprehension” on Pakistan's part, a major change in relations seems unlikely.
“Security issues and regional challenges, such as instability in Afghanistan,” Abbas told Al Jazeera, “should dominate bilateral cooperation.” Abbas is also the author of The Return of the Taliban: Afghanistan after the American Withdrawal.
Bokhari said Pakistan remains a priority for the US, which has global challenges such as the Russia-Ukraine conflict and many Middle East conflicts to deal with.
“At the moment, I don't see any growing tension between the two countries and Pakistan is playing its safe cards. In DC, the perception about Pakistan is that it is a weak, unstable country that needs to take care of itself before things go wrong,” he said.
India
India is still a major foreign policy challenge about Pakistan.
Although few disagreements occur on multi-national forums, relationships have been lacking for many years. Tensions over Kashmir escalated after New Delhi annexed Indian-administered Kashmir in 2019, sparking strong opposition from Pakistan. India and Pakistan control parts of Kashmir, but claim the entire Himalayan region, making it one of the world's longest and deadliest wars.
“Antagonism with India is increasing, and Pakistan has a number of ways to pressure India into compliance that do not jeopardize some of Pakistan's foreign goals,” analyst Clary told Al Jazeera, adding that Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi “has few ideas.” interest” in engaging with Pakistan and “sees it as impossible at a time of domestic instability” in Pakistan.
Abdul Basit, Pakistan's former ambassador to India, sees the Kashmir issue as a crisis that needs to be negotiated. “India has not shown any willingness to reform after the constitutional change,” he told Al Jazeera, referring to the Modi government's abrogation of Article 370, a law that gave Indian-administered Kashmir autonomy.
As India moves closer to the West, especially the US, against its common enemy China, Basit thinks Islamabad should find ways to engage with New Delhi.
“Otherwise, we will move from one problem to another and we will not be able to put our relationship on the path of building a normal relationship. For me, that is the main issue when it comes to India,” said the retired diplomat.
However, Bokhari of the New Lines Institute for Strategy and Policy thinks that it could be India that will be in the US competition this year and find itself under pressure due to its competition with China.
“India has close and helpful relations with Iran, where it is building a port. It is also buying oil from Russia, which is fighting in Ukraine. So (India) has a greater chance of being pressured by the incoming (Trump) administration,” he said.
For Pakistan to attract the attention of the US, according to Bokhari, it needs to provide benefits like it did during the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan and in the post-9/11 US wars.
“If you want the attention of the US, you have to give them something that will attract the attention of the US, so you can look,” he said. “It wasn't that the US liked Pakistan or that they were good friends, but that Pakistan provided a target.”
Iran
The year 2024 turned out to be a very difficult year for Iran, as it saw its interests in the Middle East seriously eroded and Israel launched several attacks on its territories.
But the year started Iran is launching terrorist attacks inside Pakistan's Balochistan province, saying that a militant group called Jaish al-Adl is threatening their security in the border areas. The attack prompted a swift retaliation by the Pakistani military. But tensions between the neighbors, especially Muslims, did not increase, Tehran used negotiations to solve the problem.
Umer Karim, a researcher at the University of Birmingham in the United Kingdom, foresees an “uncomfortable relationship” to continue, as well as the emergence of new problems with Trump's return to the White House.
Karim warns that a breakdown in relations between Pakistan and Iran could undermine border security, emboldening Baloch separatists who are said to be hiding in Iran. Baloch militants have been fighting for decades in the country.
“Pakistan will try to do good things with Iran to avoid conflict between domestic violence,” Karim said.