Asian economies try to calm Trump when the US president collects tariff threats

As the spectrum of mutual tariffs of Donald Trump, several Asian economies, who enjoy significant commercial surpluses with Washington, try to negotiate favorable solutions with the US president to prevent impact on higher duties.

Trump said on Friday that he would announce mutual tariffs – obligations matching those imposed on American goods by the relevant countries – as soon as Tuesday, immediately enter into force. Trump did not determine which countries would be affected, but indicated that it would be a wide effort to help eliminate trade deficits in the USA.

Although the details remain unclear: “Probably the US import tariffs will increase for most of the emerging Asian economies,” said a team of analysts in Barclays on Monday, except for Singapore and Hong Kong, with whom the USAs like surpluses.

Based on the estimates of the World Trade Organization, most of the economies in Asia used higher medium import tariffs compared to the US from 2023. India led with 17% straight average Assess countries with the best privileged status, compared to the US, which download 3.3%. The US enjoy the status of MFN with most of the main economies, except for Russia.

China exceeded the US trade surplus last year in the amount of $ 295.4 billion, and then in Vietnam $ 123.5 billion, $ 74 billion in Taiwan, $ 68.5 billion in Japan and $ 66 billion in South Korea, $ 66 billion South Korea, South Korea of ​​South Korea According to US census Bureau.

“Only because these economies have been open to the tariffs now, (this) does not mean that they can easily breathe,” Stefan Agrick, a senior economist at Moody's Analytics, said CNBC, emphasizing that “Washington's mood can move, and the tariffs They can still be applied later. “

These countries, except Vietnam, were saved in the opening Trump Salvo tariff thanks to their deep security bond with Washington and large investments in the USA, said Angrick, but “they should not be too comfortable.”

Vietnam trade surplus from the USA increased almost 18% per year Record level last year. Country Simple average tariff rate According to WTO data, at the IMFN, partners amounted to 9.4%.

Drinks and tobacco imported to the country are up to 45.5% of tariffs, while categories such as sugars and candies, fruits and vegetables, clothing and transport equipment are subjected to tariffs from 14% to 34%.

Trump, which he called Vietnam in 2019 “almost The worst perpetrator“ commercial practices, he did not make any public comments about the nation after re -election in November.

In recent months, Hanoi tried to find compromises with Washington about trade. In November, the country vowed to buy more planes, flowing natural gas and other products from the USA

Vietnamese Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh last week asked members of the office to prepare for influence possible global trade war this year.

Vietnam was the main beneficiary of trade barriers imposed by Beijing in Beijing in the first term, which encouraged producers to move production from China. Therefore, the Nation of Southeast Asia has become one of the largest recipients of foreign direct investment from China.

The US can double their tariffs to Vietnam to 8%if they enforce “full tariff reciprocity”, Michael Wan, senior currency analyst at Mufg Bank he said in the note Monday. To say, he expects a less extreme attitude in the US, and “some tariffs specific to the sector” are a more likely possibility.

New Delhi in his own At the beginning of this month, the Union budget reduced the tariffs In the field of products, including motorcycles, electronic goods, critical minerals and lithium batteries. Financial Secretary of Tuhin Kanta Pandey – he said in an interview that “we signal that India is not a tariff king.”

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi is Apparently prepared for further discussion The tariff crosses a dozen sectors and buying more energy and defense equipment from the USA at his meeting with Trump this week.

India's surplus from the USA, the third largest trade partner, Last year he reached $ 45.7 billion. In particular, imported agricultural goods in the country were subjected to high 39% of obligations.

During the first term of Trump, he had warm relations with Modi, but during the campaign for re -election Trump had Called India “a very great perpetrator” with tariffs.

In a telephone conversation from Modi last month, Trump emphasized the importance that India bought more security devices made by the US to reach “Honest double -sided trade relations“According to the White House statement.

Some market observers have given the idea that both sides can resume the discussion about the long -awaited Accoring in free US trade. The administration of Joe Biden had Apparently he rejected India's interest After the examination of the Free Trade Agreement, Indian local media reported, citing the Minister of Trade and the Industry.

“Such a contract would now require a significant reduction of tariffs by New Delhi, because it has much higher tariff indicators than Washington; Trump believes to a certain degree of reciprocity, “according to Kenneth Juster, an outstanding guy On the Council of Foreign Relations.

India can also offer oil imports from Russia to the USA to adapt to plans to increase oil exports and Trump's gas, said Apit CHATUREVEDI, advisor from South Asia at Teneo.

It seems that Japan has provided positive relations with Trump and can be protected from the higher tariffs “for now”, said analysts, like Prime Minister Shigeru Isehiba He ended his visit to Washington in Washington at the weekend.

Tokyo maintains relatively low tariffs of approximately 3.7% According to WTO data on the status of the Ministry of Finance with MFN status. This is suggested by “a small range of significant tariff growth for Japanese goods,” said Kyohei Morita, the chief economist of Japan at Nomura on Monday.

During the summit last week in Japan He agreed to import more natural gas From the USA and expressed interest in the project of providing LNG by a pipeline from northern Alaska.

Two leaders also agreed that instead of purchasing American steel, the Japanese Nippon steel “invests a lot” in an American company. IShiba said that Japan will provide American steel technology with better quality producers in the USA.

Japan that was The largest foreign investor in the USA For five years, He also undertook to expand this investment up to $ 1 trillion, from USD 783.3 billion in 2023.

“While Japan may not avoid all the effects of the future US tariff policy, Tokyo may avoid targeted treatment in countries such as Canada, Mexico and China,” said James Brady, vice president of Teneo, in Saturday's note.

“He can even hope for more mild commercial treatment than other main economies, because it seems to be enjoying the status of one of the most privileged nations of Trump,” said Brady.

Measure Tit-For-Tat in BeijingS – including 15% fee for American coal, flowing natural gas, 10% of duties for oil, agricultural equipment, cars and pickup trucks – they are considered modest and restrained.

According to data developed by Nomura, the tariff package includes $ 13.9 billion in China imports from the USA in 2024.

It is much lower than $ 50 billion in American goods directed during Trump's first term, said Tommy Xie, head of Asia Macro Research at OCBC Bank on Monday.

The “calibrated approach” signaled that “China is choosing a more diverse reaction”, with opponents, such as export control and regulatory probes to American corporations, as well as “leaving space for further negotiations”, added Xie.