Attempts to reach the ceasefire in Ukraine, littered with years of failure

The termination of the fire of Russia in Ukraine lasted only 30 hours, and even then it seems to be very limited in scope, with accusations of violations on both sides.

Kiev said on Sunday there were no “alert signals” during Vladimir Putin's “Easter truce”, and President Volodimir Zelenski suggested that this could be the “easiest” format to expand for 30 days and possibly more.

The United States had tried to organize a 30-day cessation of fire, but it was never mastered, and this last chapter emphasizes the difficulty in achieving even a short pause in battles,

Russia insists on a number of conditions, including the suspension of re -arming Ukraine and the recruitment of new fighters, as well as “main reasons for the conflict.”

One of the main factors that impede the progress of conversations is the long history of transactions with disturbed armistments, leading to deep distrust between the two neighbors.

During her tumultuous meeting with Donald Trump in February, Zelenski accused Russia of violating 25 agreements to terminate the fire from 2014 and claims that there was no such transaction without security guarantees.

Russia, for its part, accuses the Ukrainian president of being “unable” to apply any such agreements.

Independent experts say that Russia carries the main burden of the blame for broken trips, although Ukraine also carries some responsibility.

The statements of the current and former Russian employees also indicate that Moscow will be ready to end the hostilities only if its initial goals are achieved – namely a demilitarized, neutral and not iconic Ukraine.

By invading Ukraine in 2014, Russia violated the Friendship, Cooperation and Partnership Agreement between the two countries signed in 1997. It is said in Article 2 that the countries “respect the territorial integrity of the other and confirm the privacy of existing boundaries between them.”

The war is full of accusations of betrayal from the beginning.

Gen. Viktor Muzhenko, the head of the General Staff of Ukraine, at that time, accused Russia of returning agreements allowing Ukrainian troops to withdraw from the eastern city of Iloviask in August 2014.

As a result, the retreating convoys fell under fire and at least 366 Ukrainian fighters were killed.

The first major fire termination agreement, Signed on September 5, 2014 in MinskIt was broken within hours after signing, with Ukrainian sources reporting attacks by Russian proxy forces at Donetsk Airport. Attacks against other Ukrainian cities in the region, such as Debaltseve, continued.

This has caused Second attempt at a truceKnown as Minsk-2, but it was even shorter.

Within minutes after it came into force on February 15, 2015, observers from the Security and Cooperation Organization in Europe (OSCE) reported a mortar and artillery fire in Donetsk. They were located in the war zone at the request of Ukraine to monitor the security situation, including any disorders of the ceasefire, but did not explicitly say who committed them.

What followed was a string of other unsuccessful attempts to end the fire. Again, some were broken within minutes of the entry into force.

These include Easter Truces in 2016, 2017 and 2018. The School Discocked “of 2015, 2016, 2017 and 2018, which had to allow students near the front line to return to school in September, Christmas and New Year's

“A comprehensive termination of fire,” which entered into force on July 27, 2020, lasted only 20 minutes, according to KYIV. Still, it had an effect on fighting, reducing the number of victims among Ukrainian soldiers next year.

Matthew Savil, Director of Military Sciences at the Royal United Service Institute (RUSI) in London, claims that Russia has never participated in the cessation of fire in good faith.

“Russia has never been sincere to eliminate or terminate the risk of using force to search for its goals,” he says.

Due to various agreements to terminate the fire between Ukraine and Russia, the level of battle has broken down and is flowing, and Ukraine has some responsibility for part of it, “he told the BBC.

“But the main challenge is that there has always been Russian or supported by a Russian military threat, and that informed things.”

John Herbst, a former US ambassador to Kiev, who is now working for the Atlantic Atlantic Council of the Atlantic in Washington, claims that Russia, not Ukraine, was Minsk's “serial offender” to end fire, the first and still one of the most comprehensive attempts to mediate Ukraine.

Checking the allegations of disorders of the termination of fire is not easy, as almost all independent journalists are prohibited by Russian controlled parts of Ukraine.

The BBC journalist Olga Ivshina, who was on the spot in the East Donbass region in Ukraine, reporting the earlier stages of the war, says that in 2016-19 there were reports about the villages of Ukraine, and the successful Ukrainian offensives should not be noticed too close to Fron.

“All this was declared violations of Moscow. But of course they forgot to mention that their capture of a debate in 2015 is the biggest violation of all,” says Ivshina.

Despite Minsk's agreements, Russia -controlled forces began an offensive against the city of Debaltsev, claiming that it was not covered by the fire termination deal.

Zelenski described Minsk's agreements as a “trap” for Ukraine, which allowed Russia to prepare for the full -scale invasion.

Putin says that neither Ukraine nor his Western supporters intended to apply Minsk deals. Their fate was sealed when Russia declared the so -called Donetsk and Luhansk “People's Republics” – separatist entities that it had helped to create – as independent states.

Putin's “Easter truce” has never been more than a lull, but President Trump said that “we hope that Russia and Ukraine will make a deal this week.”

So far, there has been no indication that the Kremlin would accept the US call for immediate and unconditional cessation of fire, agreed by Ukraine.

Trump has already warned that if one of the parties makes it difficult for the negotiations to end the fire, “we will just take a pass” and move away.

Russia's demand for the “main reasons for the conflict” must be resolved, suggesting that it has not moved from its original purpose to undermine Ukraine's sovereignty – through negotiations as well as military means.

Vladislav Surkov, a former close advisor to Vladimir Putin, who was known as the “gray cardinal” of Russian politics, notes Minsk agreements last year as a way to “legitimize” the original division of Ukraine.

The very idea of ​​peace, he said, “nothing but a continuation of the war with other means.”